Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 141527

1127 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
East-west oriented ridge of high pressure is situated along the
northern Gulf Coast this morning. Although deep-layer moisture
remains reasonably high (pwat near 1.9 inches), the ridge is
likely to suppress convection across much of the area today, with
slight chance PoPs for far southern Georgia into the Florida Big
Bend. Slightly higher rain chances are anticipated across the
northern portion of the forecast area (slightly removed from the
upper ridge), as well as the Florida Panhandle (with a little help
from a lingering surface trough). Temperatures will be warm for
mid-September, with high reaching the lower to mid 90s.


[Through 12Z Monday]Low clouds have been slow to burn off this
morning at KDHN and KABY. However, VFR conditions should prevail
by 16z at all terminals. Expect minimal impact from thunderstorms
this afternoon, with TS only included in KECP forecast.


.Prev Discussion [630 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Rain chances will be gradually increasing through the short term
period as the "dirty" upper level ridge (with plenty of deep layer
moisture still underneath it) continues to weaken over the next
couple of days, before being replaced by a slowly steepening trof
over the SE U.S. by Tuesday and Wednesday. Lingering PoPs this
evening will range from 30% over much of the interior, with a small
area of 40%s across N portions of our AL and GA zones. On Monday, as
the southerly flow increases over the region, PoPs will rise from
40% south and 30% north in the morning, to 50% south and 60% north
by the afternoon, and once again linger well into the evening hours.
On Tuesday, as the upper level trof begins to become better
established, widespread 60% PoPs (with even a few areas of 70%) are
expected across the CWA. This pattern change could result in the
potential for more widespread heavy rainfall over the region through
mid week, before a significant punch of drier air works into the
area from the northwest by the end of the week as mentioned in the
long term discussion below. Initially, temps should still average a
few degrees above climo, but high temps on Tuesday may need a slight
downward adjustment based on the final cloud cover and rainfall

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]...

Deep moisture will continue to be present across the area with a
stalled frontal boundary also in the vicinity. These ingredients
point to an unsettled period coming up with an above average chance
of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some locally heavy rain is
possible given the weak boundary and deep tropical moisture
expected to be in place. A drying trend is possible for most of
the area with the exception of the southeast big bend near the end
of the week as the deepest moisture may get pushed to the south.
Daytime highs are expected to be near to slightly below normal
through most of the week.


Winds and seas will remain a bit elevated across the offshore legs
today and Monday, as a trough of low pressure (the remnants of a
weak tropical disturbance) passes well to the south of the marine
area. Thereafter, light winds and low seas are expected over the
coastal waters as a weak surface pressure returns to the marine

.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least mid week.


Although areas of locally heavy rainfall will be possible through
mid-week, at this time it does not appear as though there will be
enough time or organization to this precipitation to cause a
widespread impact on our area rivers and streams. However, the
situation does still bear monitoring, and if the steepening of the
upper level trof and subsequent cold frontal passage are slightly
slower than expected, the hydrological outlook may need to be


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  72  93  72  91 /  20  30  50  30  60
Panama City   90  77  89  76  88 /  40  30  50  30  60
Dothan        91  71  92  71  91 /  20  30  60  40  60
Albany        91  71  92  72  92 /  30  40  60  40  60
Valdosta      92  71  93  71  92 /  20  30  60  30  60
Cross City    92  71  91  71  91 /  20  30  50  30  60
Apalachicola  89  77  88  77  87 /  30  30  50  30  60


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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