Area Forecast Discussion
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311
FXUS62 KTAE 231025
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
625 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY]...EXTENSIVE LIFR CEILINGS ARE IMPACTING
DHN/ABY THIS MORNING AND MAY SPREAD INTO VLD/TLH BEFORE SUNRISE.
AFTER DAYBREAK, CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY 16Z. TLH/ECP SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO VFR, BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ELSEWHERE. LOW CEILINGS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
BACK TO TLH/ECP AFTER SUNSET WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO
IFR LEVELS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [410 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN JUST SOUTH
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON,
KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE AL/GA STATE LINE.
WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, EXPECT LOW
CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN ZONES. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN FLORIDA, THE LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THICK AND THUS DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
PREVENT A CLOUDY DAY - BUT THIS HEATING WILL ALSO GIVE RISE TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH FL AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES RATHER ZONAL OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. ON
WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH FL. MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS RATHER SHALLOW...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING AND
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH FL AND SOUTH CENTRAL GA.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...AND ITS
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO BRING OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY...THEN IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING MID WEEK WILL TRANSITION
TO A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANINED BY RAIN. MUCH COLDER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH FAIR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR LOWS. HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.


.MARINE...

MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THEY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST.


.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL AWAY FROM RED FLAG LEVELS.


.HYDROLOGY...

24-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 0.25 TO 1.0 INCH
RANGE FROM ABOUT I-10 NORTHWWARD...EXCEPT IN THE FL PANHANDLE
WHERE THERE WAS A NARROW BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM DESTIN TO JUST
WEST OF BLOUNTSTOWN. ELSEWHERE RAIN AMOUNTS WERE LESS THAN 0.25
INCHES. TODAYS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH...WITH MOST OF THIS RAIN IN THE REGION THAT DID NOT GET
MUCH RAIN SUNDAY. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE SOME RISES ON THE LOCAL
RIVERS...BUT FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   78  55  75  58  81 /  50  10   0   0  10
PANAMA CITY   75  57  70  59  75 /  30  10  10  10  10
DOTHAN        69  51  70  55  77 /  20  10   0   0  10
ALBANY        67  50  70  56  76 /  30  10   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      73  52  72  57  81 /  50  20  10   0  20
CROSS CITY    80  56  75  59  83 /  70  20  10   0  10
APALACHICOLA  76  59  72  61  75 /  40  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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