Area Forecast Discussion
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197
FXUS62 KTAE 280221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With slight cold air advection from the northeast competing with the
warming effects of cloud cover towards the south, temperatures
tonight will dip into the 40`s and upper 30`s. The coldest
temperatures will be across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia
where clouds are minimal. Clouds will build in from the southwest as
the subtropical jet stays above our area bringing an increase in
upper level moisture, but no rain for most areas. The exception will
be across the northeast Gulf and the southeast Big Bend where more
moisture will bring about light rain.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail for most terminals through the night.
The main exception will be at TLH and VLD where MVFR ceilings will
begin to spread in from the southeast late tonight. Tomorrow, the
MVFR ceilings are expected to overspread all terminals and linger
through much of the day. A chance for periods of light rain will
exist at TLH, VLD, and ABY through the day.

&&

.Prev Discussion [413 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.


.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  58  50  68  58 /  10  20  20  10  20
Panama City   45  59  51  63  58 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      45  54  48  67  59 /  10  20  30  20  20
Cross City    47  61  54  73  60 /  40  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  49  60  55  65  61 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARROYO/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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