Area Forecast Discussion
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728 FXUS62 KTAE 211749 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 149 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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With deep layer ridging across much of the Southeast and dry, sinking air aloft, we expect just isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The PoP is 20% through this evening, which is a blend of our Ensemble of Convection Allowing Models (ECAM) and various MOS. With temperatures peaking near 100 deg this afternoon, it may take until sunset for some inland sites to finally drop below 90 deg. Lows will be in the mid 70s, except upper 70s at the beaches and in cities. The cumulative effect of this heat can take its toll on those without good ventilation/air conditioning. .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... Deep layer ridging will suppress shower and thunderstorm activity the next few days as dry mid-level air overspreads the Tri-State region. Expect only isolated storms on the seabreeze each afternoon. The more impactful weather element will be the above average temperatures forecast each afternoon. Widespread maximum temperatures around 100 degrees will, by nature, yield apparent temperatures nearing heat advisory criteria (~108 degrees). This will be especially true nearer to the coast where dewpoints will be highest along and behind of the seabreeze front. In coastal locations heat indices will likely reach 110 degrees each day. Will maintain the current heat advisory for the aforementioned reasons. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... Northwesterly low-layer flow will veer to a more easterly direction increasing boundary layer moisture, while deep layer ridging persists. This increase in moisture will result in near normal PoPs to start the period. By early next week there is consensus that a front will slip into the region from the northeast returning us to a drier than normal pattern to finish the week. Temperature will remain closer to seasonal normals for the entire extended range.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Friday] Other than isolated TSRA this afternoon and evening, generally unlimited cigs and unrestricted vis are expected through the period. Some of the numerical guidance suggests the possibility of brief light fog around dawn Friday, but we chose not to include that in this forecast package without more certainty. Except for an onshore sea breeze near 10 KT this afternoon at KECP, winds will be light and rather variable.
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&& .Marine...
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Light west to northwest winds will continue through the weekend and then swing around to the east and increase to just below cautionary levels early next week. Seas will generally be 2 feet or less.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least this weekend.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Very little rainfall is expected over the next few days and river levels will remain well below action stage. In fact, the Apalachicola River is forecast to remain in low flow levels into next week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 75 99 75 100 77 / 10 30 20 30 20 Panama City 79 94 80 95 81 / 10 30 20 30 10 Dothan 75 100 75 101 76 / 10 20 10 20 10 Albany 75 101 75 101 77 / 20 10 10 20 20 Valdosta 73 100 74 99 75 / 20 20 20 30 20 Cross City 74 98 75 97 76 / 10 20 20 30 20 Apalachicola 78 94 79 94 80 / 10 20 20 30 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for Calhoun- Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin- Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty- Madison-South Walton-Washington. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien- Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early- Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman- Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva- Henry-Houston. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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