Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
819 FXUS62 KTAE 241905 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 305 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mid and upper level ridging will be advancing east of the Tri-State region through the night as a shortwave moves into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, flow is generally out of the south along the western periphery of high pressure. Additionally, the front that has been stalled near the state line for the past day or so has weakened a bit locally and is starting to drift northward. On the south side of the front, and especially behind the seabreeze front, greater moisture is present and will allow for another night of low clouds and fog. Expect the fog to be the most dense earlier in the night west of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee Rivers as winds will gradually pick up in the more disturbed area between departing high pressure and approaching low pressure. By sunrise, there should be more of a low cloud deck to the west, and fog to the east. .Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... A short wave will pass well north of the region on Friday as it swings from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic. The associated cold front will reach the northwestern part of the forecast area in the afternoon and then become stationary between I-10 and the coast Friday night. There will be little forcing for ascent over the weakening boundary and PoPs were kept in the silent 10 category. The front will begin lifting north again as a warm front on Saturday as the yet another low pressure system deepens over the Great Plains. Temps will generally be about 3-5 degrees above normal through the period. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... Upper level ridging is in place for the start of the period with a surface high off to the east keeping the area dry. An upper level low over the central plains will strengthen and become cutoff as it moves slowly to the east. Moisture and instability will return to the region Monday and the associated front will move through Wednesday afternoon and evening. A low level jet will be over the area with wind speeds up to 45 knots on Tuesday. GFS and Euro are showing SBCAPE increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear will increase to 35-40 kts over our far western zones with most of that in the 0-1 km layer. Therefore, some storms could be strong to marginally severe during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday. Storms will linger into Wednesday until frontal passage brings in some drier air.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 18Z Friday] IFR visibilities are expected once again tonight, primarily at KVLD, KTLH, and KECP. Visibility restrictions will gradually switch over to ceiling restrictions at KECP and KDHN after midnight. Low clouds will linger through at least the first part of the day at KDHN, and scatter to VFR a few hours after sunrise elsewhere. A mid level cloud deck will accompany an approaching front across the region tomorrow, with breezy westerly winds.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Marine...
-- Changed Discussion --
Onshore winds will generally be light with some enhancement near the coast in the afternoon sea breeze. Winds will increase early next week with cautionary conditions possible by Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Fire Weather...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minimum relative humidities will be in the 30s and 40s and will not be low enough to reach red flag criteria. Dispersion values will be in the 60s for most of the area tomorrow, decreasing to the 30s for Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Hydrology...
-- Changed Discussion --
Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is at major flood stage. Most area rivers have already crested with the exception of the Withlacoochee in Florida and the Suwannee River, where river levels will continue to rise slowly for the remainder of the week. The next chance for any significant rainfall is next Tuesday. At this time, QPF values are low, around 0.75-1.25 inches. The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found on our AHPS page (below). http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 62 84 60 86 58 / 10 10 0 0 0 Panama City 64 78 63 80 64 / 10 10 10 0 10 Dothan 60 83 58 86 59 / 10 10 0 0 0 Albany 59 84 58 86 57 / 10 10 10 0 0 Valdosta 58 85 60 86 57 / 10 10 10 0 0 Cross City 62 83 60 84 58 / 10 10 10 0 10 Apalachicola 64 78 63 79 62 / 10 10 10 0 0
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WESTON/WOOL AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...WESTON HYDROLOGY...MOORE

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.