Area Forecast Discussion
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872 FXUS62 KTAE 230833 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 333 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2014 .Near Term [Today]...
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Not much has changed with regards to the severe thunderstorm potential today. Early this morning, a strong to severe squall line was pushing rapidly eastward off the Texas coast. A peak gust of 75 knots was measured on one of the elevated oil platforms (KEMK) in the western Gulf in association with this line. Meanwhile, a warm front was located just off the Florida panhandle coast. This front is expected to lift northward this afternoon as the squall line approaches the area. The shear with this system is forecast to be quite strong, so the main question mark that will control how much severe weather we receive over the next 12-24 hours will be how far north the warm front can return. The radar imagery so far tonight does seem to show a northward progression of the moderate to heavy rain shield across the area, so it still looks like we could see enough destabilization this afternoon for some severe storms. Given the very strong wind fields aloft coupled with SBCAPE values possibly near or above 1000 j/kg across the Florida panhandle and over 500 j/kg across the remainder of the area with not too much CINH according to the mean of the CAM guidance, storms may be more efficient in mixing down strong wind gusts to the surface than in a typical cool season severe weather scenario locally. In addition, isolated tornadoes are possible given the amount of shear forecast. .Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... The true synoptic cold front is expected to quickly translate east from the Mississippi River Valley to about 87W longitude (Alabama) overnight as the surface cyclone rapidly deepens in the Great Lakes. Although daytime thunderstorms are expected to reduce the instability across the area, numerical models indicate some lingering weak instability in advance of the cold front through the night, and some isolated to scattered convection redeveloping, especially after 06Z as low-mid level forcing increases once again. Some convection-allowing models based on the NAM show some vigorous storms, but we believe this is because the most recent NAM is overestimating available instability. Some of the showers and storms may continue into Monday over the southeast half of our area, ahead of the advancing front. The cold front will begin to stall just southeast of our forecast area Monday Night as the broad, high-amplitude trough over the central CONUS maintains deep-layer southwesterly flow over our region during that timeframe. Some showers will be possible just behind the surface cold front over the southeast part of our area. A strong shortwave rounding the base of the trough from the southern Plains to Louisiana on Tuesday should increase QG forcing sufficiently to allow rain to expand back into the forecast area. Tuesday should be a cloudy, breezy, and cool day with rain. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... Rain will continue into Tuesday Night and early Wednesday as the ejecting shortwave facilitates surface cyclogenesis along the stalled front in the vicinity of the Florida peninsula (just SE of our area). The rain should end quickly on Wednesday as high pressure and drier air build in. High pressure should dominate the weather pattern for the rest of the week with no rain chances and slowly moderating temperatures.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12z Monday] Moderate to occasionally heavy rain this morning will continue to lift northeastward with a brief break possible during the mid to late morning hours. By this afternoon, a squall line is expected from west to east across the area with IFR conditions and gusty winds. Some of the storms may be severe.
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&& .Marine...
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No changes to the marine-related hazard products with this forecast package, which includes a High Surf Advisory for Walton and Bay Counties and a High Risk of Rip Currents for all of our beaches. The Gale Warning for all but the far eastern legs of the coastal waters still appears to be on track. Both of our 60NM offshore buoys have recorded gale-force gusts already, with the one south of Panama City recording a non-convective peak wind of 41 knots. Additionally, the C-Tower closer to shore just SSE of St. George Island recently measured a 32 knot gust.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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With moderate to heavy rainfall expected today, there are no fire weather concerns for the next few days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Rain is beginning to lift out of the area, but widespread 1-2 inch totals have occurred over most (but not all) of the area already. The amounts were slightly higher in the vicinity of Tallahassee. A lull in the rain seems likely for this morning, before storms move back in during the afternoon. Fast storm motions should reduce QPF with this next round, so flooding issues are not expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 75 66 77 49 59 / 100 50 40 20 50 Panama City 74 65 73 50 58 / 100 40 30 10 30 Dothan 74 61 73 44 57 / 100 30 20 10 20 Albany 74 63 74 46 58 / 100 50 20 10 30 Valdosta 77 67 76 49 58 / 90 60 50 30 50 Cross City 79 68 76 52 62 / 70 50 50 40 60 Apalachicola 74 67 76 53 60 / 90 40 40 20 50
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. High Surf Advisory from 9 AM this morning to Midnight CST tonight for Coastal Bay-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...DVD MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...LAMERS

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