Area Forecast Discussion
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596 FXUS62 KTAE 151942 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 342 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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As of 1930Z, much of the convective development has been limited to the far southeast parts of the area, as expected. Over the rest of the area, dewpoints have mixed into the 60s with temperatures in the 90s. Therefore, the previous forecast remains on track, and no significant changes were made. For the low temperatures, there is once again potential for lows into the mid-upper 60s in northern parts of the area where dewpoints are currently as low as 60 degrees. This occurred last night with more limited cloud cover, and that is expected to be the scenario again. Therefore, the forecast was based on a blend of 50% persistence (last night`s lows) and 50% model consensus. That produces lows in the 60s in our Alabama zones and north of a line from Blakley to Fitzgerald in Georgia. Lows should be in the low 70s elsewhere. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... Outside of the coastal waters and extreme SE FL Big Bend tomorrow morning, where chance level convection will likely linger from this afternoon`s convective blowup over the NE Gulf of Mexico, the overall trend of dry air intrusion from the NW is expected to continue into this weekend. This should result in generally slight chance to low end chance PoPs over the interior (20-30%) at best, as well as fairly hot high temperatures, which are expected to be on the high side of the middle 90s away from the coast. Although afternoon temps will be about the same on Sunday, it will feel a bit more comfortable on Saturday as dewpoints are expected to mix out into the lower to middle 60s, while on Sunday, the higher humidity will return to the region allowing Heat Indices to exceed the 100 degree mark in most locations. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... Nearly zonal flow will gradually be replaced by building upper level ridging across the SE U.S. through the entire extended period, while a weak Sfc high pressure system generally remains in place across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This type of synoptic pattern with potential stacked ridging should result in a prolonged period of hot and humid conditions across the entire CWA, with below normal PoPs forced only by the diurnal sea breeze circulation. High temps should at least be in the mid 90s away from the coast, with some upper 90s certainly possible by mid to late week. Overnight lows will mainly be in the very muggy mid to upper 70s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Saturday] Scattered showers and thunderstorms today should remain mostly southeast of all terminals. A stray shower or storm could affect TLH or VLD, mainly 20-02Z, but that is not likely and was not included in the TAF. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail with fairly light winds.
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&& .Marine...
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Although winds will generally be light out of the west to southwest at around 10 knots through much of the period with 1 to 2 foot seas across our Coastal Waters, a slight increase in the pressure pattern on Sunday night may allow for a brief spike of 10 to 15 knot winds and 2 to 3 foot seas. Mariners should also be cautious for locally higher winds and seas in scattered showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of this afternoon through tomorrow morning.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Despite some drier air than is typical for the summer months, especially in parts of Alabama and Georgia, relative humidity should remain above critical thresholds and red flag conditions are not expected.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Rainfall totals through Sunday are expected to range from 0.25 to 1.00 inches. With all area rivers below action stage, no flooding is expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 73 96 73 96 75 / 10 20 10 30 20 Panama City 76 92 78 91 78 / 10 10 10 20 20 Dothan 67 96 72 95 74 / 0 10 10 20 20 Albany 69 96 71 96 73 / 0 10 0 20 10 Valdosta 71 96 70 97 73 / 20 20 10 20 10 Cross City 73 94 72 94 74 / 30 40 20 20 20 Apalachicola 77 90 78 91 79 / 20 20 10 20 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN

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