Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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990 FXUS62 KTAE 220001 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 801 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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CONVECTION ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INLAND THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY DAWN. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO TWEAK NEAR TERM POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 00Z MONDAY] AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION, OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [344 PM EDT]...
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.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]... A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO MIDDLE GEORGIA. MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS AND AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY, A FEW STRONGER STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE PRIMARY THREAT AT THIS TIME IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN`T BE RULED OUT BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG. .LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]... MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AFTER A COOL TUESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BEFORE COOLING AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. .MARINE... A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN LOW WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA DESPITE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. BY MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGH. .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ON SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. MODEST RISES IN AREA RIVERS TO ACTION STAGE ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 63 82 62 77 52 / 70 70 70 60 10 PANAMA CITY 65 74 65 72 55 / 30 70 60 20 10 DOTHAN 61 75 59 67 51 / 70 90 70 40 10 ALBANY 60 73 57 63 49 / 60 90 90 60 10 VALDOSTA 63 80 61 69 51 / 50 80 80 70 10 CROSS CITY 63 83 64 80 52 / 20 30 50 60 10 APALACHICOLA 65 77 66 76 58 / 20 50 60 40 10
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...DVD MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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