Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 240635
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
235 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
An upper level low lies over the coast of the Carolinas while high
pressure at the surface slides over the southeastern states. This
area of high pressure sliding in will bring cooler, drier air in
behind the cold front now to our southeast. With a tighter gradient
in place between, northeast winds today may periodically gust to
around 20 MPH. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
The aforementioned upper low will open up into the longwave
pattern after it is scooped up by a shortwave forecast to move
into the Upper Midwest through Thursday. Deep layer ridging will
build west from the western Atlantic to replace the departing low.
With the upper low, departs the surface trough that has plagued
the southeastern U.S. coastline. In its wake, high pressure will
dominate, placing the Tri-State region under a more moist easterly
flow regime by Friday. Expect most shower activity to remain
offshore in the Gulf on Thursday, with our next best chance for
rain over land areas coming on Friday. The greatest rain chances
will be along and east of a line from Albany to Tallahassee (or
the eastern half of the region).
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Guidance is in pretty good agreement through the weekend, with
deep moisture gradually increasing across the forecast area from
south to north. The increase in moisture (as well as PoPs) will be
due to a combination of a weak tropical wave approaching from the
southeast and deepening southerly flow across the southeastern
states ahead of a digging trough over the southern Plains. Expect
to see an increase in PoPs south of I-10 on Friday, spreading to
the remainder of the forecast area by Saturday and Sunday. The
weather is likely to remain wet and unsettled into early next week
as the upper trough and associated front slowly moves eastward.
Temperatures should remain near seasonal norms for early fall.
[Through 12Z Thursday]
MVFR-IFR cigs are expected to develop over much of the region in
the early morning hours, dissipating shortly after sunrise
everywhere but VLD, where it will take a few more hours to clear
out. Wednesday afternoon, northeast winds will be gusting to
around 15-20 kts.
Low pressure in the western Atlantic, competing with high pressure
over the eastern U.S. will result in a continued enhancement in
winds and seas over the northeast Gulf through Thursday. By
Friday, we`ll switch to an easterly flow pattern which favors
nighttime wind surges. In short, advisory conditions should be
expected through today, followed by periods of cautionary
conditions through the weekend.
Despite drier air moving in behind a cold front, relative humidity
values will not dip into the 30s, so red flag criteria will not be
On Friday we`ll begin to transition to a wet pattern which could
bring 2+ inches of rain, over a few day stretch, to the region.
Specifically, north Florida appears as though it will be affected
most by the upcoming rain. However, with most rivers across
Florida in low-flow stages, seven day rainfall amounts should not
result in flooding levels along local rivers.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 84 63 86 68 86 / 10 0 10 10 30
Panama City 84 67 85 71 87 / 0 10 10 10 20
Dothan 82 62 84 65 86 / 0 0 10 0 20
Albany 81 62 84 66 86 / 0 0 10 10 30
Valdosta 81 63 84 67 86 / 10 10 20 10 40
Cross City 84 66 86 69 84 / 10 10 30 10 40
Apalachicola 84 69 83 72 84 / 0 10 10 10 30
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20
NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.