Area Forecast Discussion
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293 FXUS62 KTAE 260810 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 310 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015 .Near Term [Today]...
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As a strong area of low pressure departs the region today, high pressure will build in its wake. The squall line that affected the southeast big bend was impressive for this part of the forecast area, and it was supported by extremely strong environmental winds aloft. In fact, the 26/00Z KTAE sounding measured an 850 mb wind of 62 knots, and this ties the record for the strongest observed 850 mb wind for Tallahassee for either a 00Z or 12z sounding. Residual low level moisture is expected to keep conditions mostly cloudy through the day with high temperatures ranging from the lower 50s across the northwest to the lower 60s across the southeast big bend. .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... The trend over the short term period will be a gradually building ridge aloft (500mb heights increase 130m), while the area remains situated on the southern periphery of an east coast surface high pressure. This will keep the weather mostly dry but with cooler- than-normal temperatures. However, it does appear most locations will avoid overnight freezes. Small rain chances return on Saturday as a few rain showers will be possible in the southeast half of the area as return flow and low-mid level moisture increase. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... By next week, the ridge aloft should be firmly established over the Southeast with the east coast surface ridge eroding. This will set up more of a southerly component to the return flow and allow temperatures to finally increase. Depending on eventual cloud cover, a few locations could hit the 80 degree mark early next week. The forecast calls for mostly mid-upper 70s in the Monday to Wednesday timeframe right now. Some small rain chances are in the forecast as models do generate some light QPF, however the primary QG forcing is currently expected to remain to our north and west.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12z Friday] As an area of low pressure moves away from the area, residual low level moisture is expected to allow for low clouds to persist through much of the period with ceilings ranging from MVFR to IFR.
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&& .Marine...
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With 07Z buoy and tower observations still indicating advisory level winds over much of the coastal waters, and seas as high as 10 feet about 60NM offshore, the Small Craft Advisory was extended until 12Z. Winds and seas should diminish this morning. SCEC level winds will likely return tonight with breezy northeast to east winds persisting into the weekend.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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A large swath of 1-2 inches of rain fell across the area. For the most part, rivers will remain below minor flood stage, although several points will reach action stage. One exception may be the Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson, which could reach minor flood stage this weekend.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 56 37 61 40 63 / 10 10 0 10 20 Panama City 54 39 57 43 61 / 0 0 0 10 20 Dothan 51 34 54 36 58 / 10 10 0 10 10 Albany 53 35 56 37 56 / 10 10 0 10 20 Valdosta 55 39 60 41 60 / 10 10 0 10 30 Cross City 61 41 64 45 66 / 10 10 10 10 40 Apalachicola 57 42 59 47 63 / 10 0 0 10 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for all zones.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...DVD MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD

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