Area Forecast Discussion
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521 FXUS62 KTAE 161845 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 245 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A few showers and thunderstorms have developed along the sea breeze in southern Okaloosa County just west of our area early this afternoon. To account for this, we have added "isolated storms" to the forecast along the sea breeze in Walton County and western Washington and Bay Counties with a 10% PoP. Other than that, the very dry air in the mid-levels will continue to suppress convection over much of the area through 06Z. Late tonight, especially after 09-10Z, an increase in low-level moisture and isentropic ascent may lead to some isolated-scattered showers and storms in the southwest part of our area - particularly the coastal waters and the western Florida Panhandle. .Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... With low level high pressure and generally zonal flow aloft, the sea-breeze will take over. Forecast 1000-700 mb flow is forecast to be from the west-southwest at around 10 knots both days, making them borderline regime 4/regime 5 days. A dry airmass in place will keep PoPs slightly lower than normal for these usually very wet patterns for our area. Highs will be in the mid 90s, low 90s near the coastline, lows will be in the mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... Stacked high pressure through the period will allow the sea-breeze circulation will once again become the main driving force for our local weather. With a drier than normal airmass in place, chances will be somewhat lower than climo and temperatures will be slightly warmer than climo. Highs will be in the mid 90s, low 90s along the immediate coast, and lows will be in the mid 70s, upper 70s along the immediate coast.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the afternoon and most of tonight. Late tonight - after 10Z - an increase in lower stratus clouds is possible at ECP with MVFR CIGS, as well as some scattered showers and thunderstorms. MVFR CIGS also couldn`t be ruled out at DHN and TLH, but that is less likely. Rain showers and thunderstorms may spread to the other terminals later on Sunday, especially after 18Z.
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&& .Marine...
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With high pressure over the northern Gulf for most of the period, winds will generally be from the west-southwest at 10 knots or less, with surges along the coastline to about 15 knots in the evenings. Waves will stay in the 1 to 2 feet range through the period.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. The lack of significant, widespread rain the next few days will continue to allow fuels and soil moisture to dry.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Rainfall totals through Monday are expected to range from .25 to .50 inches. With all area rivers below action stage, no flooding is expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 74 94 75 95 76 / 10 40 10 30 10 Panama City 78 89 78 90 78 / 30 50 20 30 20 Dothan 72 94 74 94 74 / 10 40 10 30 20 Albany 71 95 75 94 74 / 10 20 20 30 20 Valdosta 71 97 73 97 74 / 10 20 10 30 10 Cross City 74 93 74 93 74 / 20 30 10 30 10 Apalachicola 77 89 77 90 77 / 30 40 20 30 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...MOORE FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER/LAMERS HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN

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