Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 150821
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
321 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
With a weak Sfc high pressure ridge anchored in from the Carolinas
SW into our CWA, very little change to our current fcst is
expected today. After yet another mostly clear and chilly start
over the region this morning, afternoon temperatures will rebound
quite well, with the possibility of a repeat of Sunday`s 35-40
degree diurnal ranges. High temps are expected to climb into the
mid to upper 60s across much of SW and SC GA, to the upper 60s to
the lower 70s elsewhere. Skies are not expected to be entirely
clear however, as a band of Cirrus (associated with an upper level
low over OK and KS) moves steadily eastward through the CWA, with
its only impact temporarily dimming the bright sunshine.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The ridging that has been the dominate feature for the last
several days will slide eastward as an upper level trough lifts
north of the area on Tuesday. With low level moisture returning
ahead of the weak cold front tonight, some areas of fog could
develop. The front will push through the area during the day on
Tuesday with just some scattered showers associated with it.
Afternoon high temperatures on Tuesday will be rather warm ahead
of the front with low to mid 70s expected over most of the area. A
slight cool down back to near average temperatures for this time
of year is expected on Wednesday behind the front.
.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
The next system of interest is expected to arrive between the
Friday night and Saturday time frame. There remains some model
disagreement with this system with the ECMWF showing a much
stronger system than the GFS. The Canadian model is not as strong
as the ECMWF, but it shows more moisture and better chance of rain
over the area than the GFS does. The WPC is leaning towards a
better chance of rain as well, so with this in mind, PoPs were
trended upward. A slight chance of thunderstorms was also added
across the western third of the area out of respect for the
stronger ECMWF scenario. Temperatures are expected to be mostly
near seasonal averages through the period.
[Through 12z Tuesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with light winds at all of the terminals, with
just a brief period or 2 of MVFR level Vis possible at ABY and VLD
Light winds and low seas will prevail through today. For tonight
through Tuesday, an uptick of winds to near 15 knots will be
possible behind a cold front, mainly to the west of Apalachicola.
Winds and seas will then subside once again for Wednesday and
Thursday with another increase expected for Friday into next
Despite generally fair, seasonable, and dry weather today,
conditions will not be dry enough to cause any Red Flag concerns.
Increasing moisture and a chance of rain tomorrow will also
preclude any fire weather hazards.
No flooding issues are expected over the next several days. A weak
system may bring a few light showers on Tuesday. A better chance
of rain may arrive around Friday night or Saturday.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 70 46 75 42 66 / 0 0 30 0 0
Panama City 68 56 72 46 62 / 0 20 50 0 0
Dothan 69 51 70 40 62 / 0 30 40 0 0
Albany 67 46 71 39 64 / 0 20 50 0 0
Valdosta 69 43 73 42 65 / 0 0 30 0 0
Cross City 69 41 73 44 67 / 0 0 20 0 0
Apalachicola 67 53 71 46 62 / 0 0 30 0 0