Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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314
FXUS62 KTAE 200829
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
329 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A couple of weak shortwaves will pass quickly across the area today
embedded in the zonal flow aloft. A lack of strong forcing and deep
moisture will limited rain chances. However, a few showers will be
possible this afternoon over the far western portion of the forecast
area. Otherwise, expect mild temperatures this afternoon, with highs
reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The zonal flow will back to the WSW by Thursday as the long wave
trough over the desert southwest deepens. Locally, weak high
pressure will be in place at the surface. Cyclogenesis will begin
near the south Texas coast on Thursday with a widespread area of
rain developing from overrunning and spreading east through the Gulf
coastal states. Some of this activity may reach our western zones
by late Thursday. Daytime temps will be mild Wednesday with highs in
the upper 60s to around 70 and a little cooler Thursday with highs
in the mid to upper 60s. Lows will be in the 40s both nights.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

There continue to be some differences among the models concerning
the development and track of the low in the Gulf of Mexico. The
latest EURO tracks the low furthest north and comes ashore in the
Florida panhandle near Panama City Friday afternoon. The 00z GFS
is further south and crosses the Florida coast in the southeast
Big Bend Friday evening. Both solutions bring widespread rains to
the region mainly during the Thursday night to Friday night
time frame. The Euro would bring a larger portion of our CWA in the
warm sector with increasing chances for thunderstorms and
potential for heavier rain. Both models show the surface low
deepening further as it parallels along or just off the
southeastern U.S seaboard on Saturday and racing off to the
northeast. The upper trough will swing through the local region
Saturday with skies gradually clearing as a much cooler and drier
airmass filters in through the remainder of the period.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Wednesday] VFR conditions will continue through the
TAF cycle.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas will be low through Wednesday night. A low pressure
system will track across the northern Gulf of Mexico increasing
northeast winds and seas to cautionary levels on Thursday.
Winds and seas are forecast to reach advisory levels as the low
tracks into the local waters Thursday night and Friday. Conditions
across the marine area will gradually improve over the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Low level moisture will begin to increase today and remain
sufficient through the week to preclude any red flag conditions.

&&

.Hydrology...

All area rivers are below flood stage and staying steady or falling.
Our next chance for rainfall will be Thursday. QPF values are
expected to be an inch or less at this time, which will not cause
flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   71  48  70  45  68 /   0  10   0   0  10
Panama City   68  51  67  48  64 /  20  10   0   0  20
Dothan        68  46  68  44  64 /   0  10   0   0  20
Albany        68  46  69  42  64 /   0  10   0   0  10
Valdosta      70  49  71  46  68 /   0  10   0   0  10
Cross City    71  48  70  48  70 /   0  10   0   0  10
Apalachicola  67  52  67  51  65 /  10  10   0   0  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...MOORE/MERRIFIELD




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