Area Forecast Discussion
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265 FXUS62 KTAE 181942 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 342 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The pattern described earlier this morning remains essentially unchanged with a mid/upper ridge to our south, and a shortwave trough just to our northwest and covering much of the central and eastern parts of the country. A quasi-stationary boundary along the northern Gulf coast (extending into our panhandle counties) is beginning to transition to a warm front and lift north with a little push from the afternoon seabreezes, but more so due to the development and approach of a surface low over central Louisiana. A few scattered storms will be possible late this afternoon and evening across our far western Florida and Alabama counties as convection initiating along the front moves northeast. Though the weakening trend as the storms move north should continue as they enter a more unfavorable airmass. With the main front remaining to our west overnight, expect convection to do the same. PoP`s will begin to increase over our area tomorrow, discussed below. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... The upper trough over the Mississippi Valley today will slide eastward over the weekend bringing a return of unsettled weather to the region. Low to mid level flow will be out of the WSW, a favorable directly for higher coverage of sea breeze convection. However, synoptic influences will also be in play with a remnant front dissecting the CWA and impulses rotating through the mean trough. Deep layer shear will be above typical summertime levels on Saturday. However, mid level lapse rates will be poor and low level instability will be limited by abundant cloud cover. Still, one or two strong storms cannot be ruled out over our FL Panhandle coastal zones and the marine area. A bigger concern will be locally heavy rain. 48-hr QPF could be over 3 inches over our far northwestern zones with a much larger area over 2 inches. PoPs will be in the likely category for most of the area and max temps will mainly be held in the 80s with 90s restricted to the eastern FL Big Bend. Sunday will see more typical distribution of scattered storms and seasonal temps. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... A wet pattern will be prevailing over our CWA through the long term as we will be in the weakness between two large longwave ridges, one over the Atlantic, and one over the Western CONUS. This weakness will allow the area to be under the influence of deep layer southerly flow which will give good rain chances for all parts of the forecast region. Further adding to the weakness will be a cut off upper low that the GFS and Euro indicate could drop down from the mean 250mb flow Monday afternoon. As this rotates SW around the ridge, it will further fortify our rain chances throughout the long term especially Monday-Wednesday afternoons.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail to begin the TAF, and for most of the night. By early morning, scattered MVFR ceilings will overspread ECP and DHN from the west, with conditions deteriorating elsewhere just outside of the TAF period.
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&& .Marine...
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Low pressure west of the area will briefly increase winds and seas over the waters west of Apalachicola through Saturday. By Sunday and beyond, a weak pressure pattern more typical for the summer months will return. This will result in light winds and low seas from Sunday through Wednesday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days as moisture levels drastically increase along with rain chances.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Rain chances will increase through the weekend. Isolated rainfall totals in excess of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the western half of the forecast area with lesser amounts of 1 to 2 inches through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts should not be widespread enough to cause any river flooding, though some localized issues in flood prone areas are possible.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 72 89 72 91 73 / 10 70 30 50 40 Panama City 75 86 75 89 76 / 20 70 40 50 40 Dothan 72 87 72 90 72 / 20 70 40 50 30 Albany 73 87 71 91 72 / 10 70 40 50 40 Valdosta 71 89 70 91 72 / 10 50 40 50 40 Cross City 71 91 72 91 72 / 10 40 30 50 40 Apalachicola 75 86 74 90 75 / 10 70 40 50 40
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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