Area Forecast Discussion
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095 FXUS62 KTAE 251837 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 237 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through this evening. As the upper level trough moves out late this evening a ridge will quickly build in from the west. As a result precip will end by midnight. Expect seasonal lows tonight in the lower 70s. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... The persistent weakness that has been in place across the Eastern CONUS for the last few days will be replaced by a mid level ridge building into the region. This will result in slightly lower rain chances and warmer afternoon temperatures through the weekend. Highs by Sunday will be in the mid 90s with a few locations possibly reaching the upper 90s. Heat indices Sunday afternoon will likely be in the 100 to 105 degree range. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement that the pattern across the Eastern CONUS will amplify considerably at the start of the period as a large trough moves through the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic States. For several runs now, the models have all indicated the surface cold front making it through most if not all of our forecast area by Tuesday. Thus, expect a couple of days of below normal temps with little or no rain chances. The bulk of the colder air should remain confined in the Tennessee Valley and areas to the north though Wednesday and Thursday morning lows will drop into the 60s across Srn Alabama/Georgia. By Thursday, the pattern stalls or even retrogrades slightly with the 500 mb trough axis aligned from the Southern Appalachians through our forecast area. As deep layer moisture begins to increase on Thursday, rain chances will increase. Afternoon temperatures will still remain below normal through this portion of the long term period due to expected cloud cover, though overnight lows will return to seasonal norms.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Saturday] Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the day. The typical summertime scattered diurnal convection will develop across the area from southwest to northeast. Overnight expect MVFR conditions at all terminals except for ABY. Low ceilings are likely overnight except for DHN which will probably experience mist in the early morning hours.
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&& .Marine...
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Southwesterly flow will continue over the marine area through the weekend. On Monday, westerly flow will increase to cautionary levels ahead of an approaching cold front. This boundary will move through the marine area on Tuesday with light offshore winds expected in its wake.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days, although dispersion values will be high this afternoon and Saturday across most inland areas.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms are expected, however heavy rain will be localized and should not have any impact on area rivers.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 73 94 76 94 76 / 30 30 10 20 10 Panama City 76 91 78 91 79 / 20 30 10 20 10 Dothan 73 96 75 95 76 / 30 20 10 10 10 Albany 74 96 75 95 76 / 30 20 10 20 10 Valdosta 72 95 73 97 75 / 40 30 10 20 10 Cross City 72 92 74 93 74 / 20 30 10 20 10 Apalachicola 76 90 78 90 79 / 20 30 10 20 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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