Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 270743
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Northeasterly low-level flow will continue today with Hurricane
Cristobal well offshore of the Carolinas coast (moving into the
open Atlantic), and a surface ridge of high pressure over the
southern and central Appalachians. This should continue dry air
advection, with average boundary layer dewpoints falling into the
50s in the northeast half of our area, and in the low-mid 60s
elsewhere. With deep mixing expected today, the surface dewpoints
should be fairly close to that, and the end result is a more
refreshing air mass than what we`ve seen recently, especially over
the previous weekend. High temperatures will still be in the
low-mid 90s, but relative humidity levels should be quite low for
summer. The dry air advection should also generally act to
suppress cloud cover and rain chances. We are expecting a dry and
mostly sunny day. The mostly clear skies and dry weather will
continue into tonight. Given the much drier air mass arriving
today, lows tonight should be below normal, and some mid-60s are
in the forecast for our Georgia counties.
.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday]...
The upper ridge with very dry air in the mid to upper levels will
start to gradually break down during the short term. The low level
flow which will be from the east to northeast today will gradually
veer to the south by Friday and bring a gradual increase in
moisture to the boundary layer. However, PoPs will generally
remain below 20% over land until Friday as we have a ways to go to
moisten the airmass back up again. By Friday, it appears as though
sufficient moistening will have occurred to allow for a return to
scattered afternoon convection. Temperatures will be rather warm
through the period with mid 90s common, but with the dry air in
place, heat indices will not be much higher than that on Thursday
with a slight uptick on Friday as moisture increases.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
The GFS and ECMWF show the Tri-State region residing on the
western periphery of deep layer ridging through Saturday. After
that the GFS expands the ridge westward while becoming less
amplified. The ECMWF keeps the area under the western portion of
the de-amplifying ridge. At the surface, low level flow will be
southerly with the high situated well east of the Atlantic
seaboard. Both solutions show a return of deep layer moisture to
the area with near to above normal rain chances each day. Despite
the increase in rain chances, max temps will generally be above
climo in the lower to mid 90s.
[Through 12Z Thursday] Mostly clear skies are expected, but
afternoon cumulus around 6000 feet are possible. Overall, VFR
conditions will prevail. Some MVFR VIS will be possible at VLD in
the 08-12Z timeframe this morning, but any fog should clear
Caution level easterly winds will gradually diminish through the
morning hours with winds expected to drop below caution levels by
late morning. Lighter winds and seas are then expected to prevail
through the weekend with winds gradually veering to onshore.
A dry air mass is expected to push into the area over the next
couple days. Winds are not expected to be sufficient for red flag
conditions, but the afternoon relative humidity should be quite
low for this time of year.
There are no hydrological concerns at the present time with little
to rain expected for the couple of days. Scattered convection is
expected to return for Friday into the weekend, but flooding is
not expected at this time.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 95 68 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 40
Panama City 92 75 92 75 91 / 10 10 0 10 40
Dothan 93 66 95 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 30
Albany 93 65 96 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 20
Valdosta 93 65 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 30
Cross City 93 67 94 69 94 / 0 10 10 20 50
Apalachicola 91 73 91 74 91 / 10 10 10 20 40