Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 142039
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
439 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A few showers or thunderstorms could linger into the evening hours
across parts of the Florida Big Bend, eastern Panhandle and extreme
SE sections of south central GA. Otherwise, any convective
re-development will shift towards the coastal waters and the far SE
Big Bend overnight where plenty of deep layer moisture remains in
place. The latest PWATs from the GOES Blended TPW product (as
mentioned in this morning`s discussion) still shows a wide
discrepancy in deep layer moisture from N-NW to SE across the CWA,
with extremely dry air for this time of year further to the north
across central and northern AL and GA. Over our area, estimates
range from just under an inch over Quitman county GA to 2.16" over
Dixie county FL, with plenty of additional Tropical moisture in
the northern Gulf of Mexico.
.Short Term [Friday through Saturday Night]...
In general, deep layer westerly flow - particularly in the 700-300mb
layer - will create gradual dry air advection and establish a slow
decreasing trend in precipitable water across the area through much
of the period. PWATs should be significantly below normal in
northwest parts of the area, where rain is not expected. To the
southeast, in the Florida Big Bend, PWATs should be closer to normal
and those locations will still be in the region of greater moisture
ahead of the quasi-stationary surface front. Therefore, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible, mainly
along and southeast of a line from PAM-TLH-VLD. With less cloud
cover and less rain, Friday and Saturday could be warmer than recent
days with widespread mid-90s for highs. An increase in PWATs doesn`t
seem likely to occur until later Saturday Night, so an appreciable
increase in rain chances shouldn`t occur until the long term period.
.Long Term [Sunday through Thursday]...
Upper level flow will become zonal for the extended period.
Southwest winds will bring moisture from the Gulf and scattered rain
chances, typical for this time of year. High temperatures will be in
the mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s.
[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions should prevail at the terminals
through much of the upcoming period. A tstm will still be possible
at TLH and VLD this afternoon, which may allow for some MVFR Vis to
form at these locations overnight. Otherwise, just sct CU and CI
with light winds are expected for the remainder of the time and
other Taf locations.
A relatively weak pressure pattern should keep winds 10 knots or
less and seas 2 feet or less for the foreseeable future.
The Tri-State region will be bisected northeast to southwest over
the next few days by a front dividing dry air to the north and more
saturated conditions to the south. However, even in the driest
locations relative humidity levels should remain above critical
levels precluding any hazardous fire weather conditions.
Heavy rainfall will be localized and not widespread. With all area
rivers below bank full stage flooding is not a concern.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 74 94 73 96 73 / 20 20 10 20 10
Panama City 79 91 76 92 77 / 10 20 10 20 10
Dothan 69 95 71 96 73 / 0 10 10 10 10
Albany 70 95 70 96 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
Valdosta 71 95 70 97 72 / 20 30 10 20 10
Cross City 75 91 73 90 72 / 30 40 30 40 20
Apalachicola 78 89 76 90 77 / 10 30 20 20 10