Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 140600
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
200 AM EDT Tue May 14 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The longwave pattern remains amplified with upper level ridging
across the intermountain west and upper level troughing along the
east coast. The local area is under the influence of a surface ridge
with very dry air in place and little in the way of weather to
discuss. After an unseasonably cool start this morning, temperatures
are expected to rebound into the low to mid 80s this afternoon with
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...
An upper ridge will build over the region tonight through
Wednesday, keeping the weather dry. After one more cool night with
temperatures running 10+ degrees below normal, temperatures will
return to near normal levels for Wednesday into Thursday.
By early Thursday, a weak upper trough is forecast to cross the
Mississippi River and move across the deep south. This may help
kick off some isolated convection on Thursday, primarily over
northern portions of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
Upper level flow will remain progressive with a short wave trough
moving east across the Gulf Coast states Thursday and Thursday
night. A period of ridging will follow. However, the axis never
quite makes it this far east and keeps the area in northwest flow.
The next long wave trough then builds into the Southeast on
Monday. At the surface, the ridge axis will remain in place just
south of the coast through the entire period. That will protect
the forecast area from any widespread precipitation. However, we
will actually being seeing temps and dew points typical for mid to
late May. This will provide enough moisture and instability to
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop on the sea breeze
and other boundaries, possibly aided by impulses coming into the
area in the northwesterly flow aloft. PoPs will generally be in
the 10-20 percent range on Thursday, rising to 20-30 percent from
Friday through the weekend. With the sea breeze being a primary
catalyst, areas along the immediate coast may stay dry through the
[Through 06z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected through the
period with prevailing winds of 10 knots or less.
High pressure will remain over the waters for the next several
days, keeping winds and seas minimal through the weekend.
Long durations of low relative humidity will couple with high ERC
values in a few northwest Florida counties this afternoon to
provide red flag conditions. On Wednesday, durations of critically
low RH do not appear to be likely and the airmass will gradually
moisten through the remainder of the week. Thus, red flag
conditions are not anticipated after today.
With little rain expected through the next seven days, no
hydrologic problems are anticipated.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 82 51 86 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 81 61 82 65 81 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 82 57 88 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 82 56 88 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 20
Valdosta 82 52 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 83 52 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 78 58 79 63 79 / 0 0 0 0 10
FL...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 8 PM EDT
/7 PM CDT/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-
Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Leon-Washington.