030
FXUS62 KTAE 140600
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
200 AM EDT Tue May 14 2013


.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The longwave pattern remains amplified with upper level ridging
across the intermountain west and upper level troughing along the
east coast. The local area is under the influence of a surface ridge
with very dry air in place and little in the way of weather to
discuss. After an unseasonably cool start this morning, temperatures
are expected to rebound into the low to mid 80s this afternoon with
sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...
An upper ridge will build over the region tonight through
Wednesday, keeping the weather dry. After one more cool night with
temperatures running 10+ degrees below normal, temperatures will
return to near normal levels for Wednesday into Thursday.

By early Thursday, a weak upper trough is forecast to cross the
Mississippi River and move across the deep south. This may help
kick off some isolated convection on Thursday, primarily over
northern portions of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
Upper level flow will remain progressive with a short wave trough
moving east across the Gulf Coast states Thursday and Thursday
night. A period of ridging will follow. However, the axis never
quite makes it this far east and keeps the area in northwest flow.
The next long wave trough then builds into the Southeast on
Monday. At the surface, the ridge axis will remain in place just
south of the coast through the entire period. That will protect
the forecast area from any widespread precipitation. However, we
will actually being seeing temps and dew points typical for mid to
late May. This will provide enough moisture and instability to
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop on the sea breeze
and other boundaries, possibly aided by impulses coming into the
area in the northwesterly flow aloft. PoPs will generally be in
the 10-20 percent range on Thursday, rising to 20-30 percent from
Friday through the weekend. With the sea breeze being a primary
catalyst, areas along the immediate coast may stay dry through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected through the
period with prevailing winds of 10 knots or less.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain over the waters for the next several
days, keeping winds and seas minimal through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Long durations of low relative humidity will couple with high ERC
values in a few northwest Florida counties this afternoon to
provide red flag conditions. On Wednesday, durations of critically
low RH do not appear to be likely and the airmass will gradually
moisten through the remainder of the week. Thus, red flag
conditions are not anticipated after today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
With little rain expected through the next seven days, no
hydrologic problems are anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   82  51  86  57  85 /  0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   81  61  82  65  81 /  0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        82  57  88  62  86 /  0   0   0   0  10
Albany        82  56  88  61  87 /  0   0   0   0  20
Valdosta      82  52  87  59  86 /  0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    83  52  86  58  86 /  0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  78  58  79  63  79 /  0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 8 PM EDT
     /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-
     Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Leon-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Camp