Area Forecast Discussion
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[Through 12z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most of the day with winds from the southwest around 8-10 kts in the afternoon. The typical summertime scattered diurnal convection will develop during the late morning and afternoon hours with VCTS shown at the terminals. The earliest start is expected at ECP with later start times farther to the north and east.
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&& .Prev Discussion [253 AM EDT]...
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.Near Term [Today]... The overnight analysis shows a strong upper level ridge across the Rockies and a seasonably strong subtropical ridge off the east coast of Florida. In between the two, weak upper level troughing exists just west of the local area. As we head through the day, the 1000-700 mb mean wind will be out of the southwest, yielding a type 4 or 5 sea breeze regime. This favors an early start to convection across northwest Florida with convection spreading inland into southeast Alabama and southern Georgia during the afternoon hours. The ensemble of convection allowing models also shows this general evolution, so the PoP forecast will favor a blend of the CAMs and sea breeze climatology for today with seasonable high temperatures. .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement in maintaining the base of a weak 500 mb trough over GA through Saturday, while a surface cold front stalls well to our north. The mean 1000-700 mb wind across our regions will be out of the southwest, which is often associated with above-climatology PoPs for portions of our forecast area (especially in FL). Curiously, there is considerable difference in the forecast PoP among the GFS, NAM, & ECMWF MOS each day, but it`s not that obvious (looking at the synoptic scale) why this is. We averaged the various PoPs together, as well as our local sea breeze climatology, and our PoP forecast changes very little between Friday and Saturday. Scattered evening thunderstorms (mainly in GA and AL) will dissipate before midnight tonight, but isolated showers/storms will begin to develop near the FL coast by dawn on Friday. PoPs both Friday and Saturday are around 40%, which is near climatology. Highs will be in the mid 90s and lows in the 70s. The prospects for organized severe thunderstorms continues to be low due primarily to weak winds aloft. However, the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM all forecast some drying and steepening of the mid tropospheric lapse rates Saturday afternoon. SBCAPE values will likely exceed 2500 J/kg on Saturday, and delta theta-e values are forecast to reach or exceed 30 K. Together, these factors suggest a greater potential for strong/severe wet microbursts, albeit disorganized and "pulsey" in nature, and we will continue to monitor this threat. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... The region will be dominated by a typical summer pattern Sunday. As a result, expect isolated afternoon/evening rain and thunderstorms. Monday an upper level trough moves in and increases afternoon/evening precip chances. A stationary boundary is expected to linger over the area Tuesday and Wednesday bringing increased rain chances in the Big Bend Region. In addition to the increased rain chance expect abundant cloud cover. It will be slightly cooler and less humid Tuesday and Wednesday...particularly in the Alabama and Georgia counties. .Marine... An east-west oriented surface ridge will remain across South FL and the southeast Gulf of Mexico through this weekend. Winds will generally be from the southwest around 10 KT, except for an increase to 10 to 15 KT near the coast during the late afternoon and evening hours from strong daytime heating. Significant wave heights will be mainly 2 ft or less. .Fire Weather... Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days, although dispersion values will be high this afternoon across a large portion of the area away from the immediate coast. .Hydrology... Any heavy rain that occurs is likely to be too localized to significantly impact local rivers. The probability of Flash Flooding is very low.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 92 73 93 73 94 / 50 10 40 20 40 Panama City 88 77 89 77 89 / 40 10 40 20 40 Dothan 92 73 92 74 94 / 50 30 40 20 40 Albany 93 73 93 74 94 / 40 40 30 20 30 Valdosta 96 72 96 71 96 / 50 20 40 20 40 Cross City 92 74 91 71 92 / 30 30 40 20 40 Apalachicola 89 77 89 77 89 / 40 10 40 20 40 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT AVIATION...DVD MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.