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484
FXUS62 KTAE 151425
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1025 AM EDT Wed May 15 2013

.UPDATE [At 1020 AM EDT]...
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We hit another record low this morning at the Tallahassee Airport
this morning with a low temperature of 51, which ties the previous
record from 2002. Local observations show we are warming quicker
than previously forecast- we`ve already hit the low-mid 70s this
morning-so bumped up highs for the day slightly. Today will be
warm and sunny with highs in the upper 80s.

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep the weather dry
and warm today. Expect highs to reach the mid to upper 80s across
the area this afternoon under full May sunshine.
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&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
Rather benign weather will continue through the short term period.
Weak upper level troughing will approach the area on Thursday and
Friday with an increase in clouds. However, rain chances look
quite minimal with this feature through Friday, generally 20
percent or less on Friday. Near seasonal temperatures are expected
with mid to upper 80s for highs and upper 50s to lower 60s for
lows.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]...
The surface ridge axis will essentially remain in place through
the period with the axis wavering back and forth from our coastal
waters to just inland. This will keep a general onshore flow of
moist air coming in from the Gulf of Mexico. There will be
sufficient moisture by weeks end to allow for isolated
thunderstorms to develop on the sea breeze and any follow on
outflow boundaries, with some occasional additional forcing for
ascent provided by weak impulses in northwesterly flow aloft.
Daytime PoPs will generally be in the 20-30 percent range through
the period. Afternoon max temps will be near seasonal norms in the
upper 80s, with cooler upper 70s to lower 80s at the beaches.
Overnight lows will be slightly above normal in the lower to mid
60s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]...
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VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period at all terminals.
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&&

.MARINE...
A surface ridge of high pressure pressure will remain in place over
or just north of the waters through the weekend. This high will
keep winds light and primarily onshore with a slight enhancement
in wind speeds each afternoon near the coast in association with
the sea breeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The low level airmass is forecast to slowly moisten over the next
few days. This will keep durations of critical humidity below
headline criteria, with no red flag conditions expected. The warm
temperatures and high mixing heights over the next few days will
result in elevated dispersion values over the Florida Panhandle.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no concerns on area rivers and creeks for the next
several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee   87  58  87  60  88 /  0   0  10  10  20
Panama City   83  64  82  66  83 /  0   0  10  10  20
Dothan        89  61  86  62  88 /  0   0  10  10  20
Albany        89  61  88  61  89 /  0   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      88  59  87  60  88 /  0   0  10  10  20
Cross City    87  58  87  59  88 /  0   0  10  10  20
Apalachicola  80  60  82  63  82 /  0   0  10  10  10
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&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Moore
NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD