Area Forecast Discussion
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797 FXUS62 KTAE 232124 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 424 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A stationary boundary will linger along the Gulf Coast. This afternoon the stationary boundary is located along the Florida/Georgia line extending to the Gulf Coast of Florida. Rain chances will begin to increase this evening with the best chance of rain in the early morning hours. Most of the CWA will be on the cool side of the stationary boundary tonight. That means overrunning conditions with rain and persistent cloud cover. Patchy fog is possible in the early morning hours. There will be a steep temp gradient tonight as the front lingers over the region. Lows will be in the lower 40s for northwestern portions of the CWA and lower 50s for southeast portions of the CWA. .Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... Stationary frontal boundary will remain in place along the Gulf Coast on Tuesday as the surface high pressure to the north rapidly weakens. Showers will be ongoing at the beginning of the period as a jet streak passes north of the forecast area. However, cyclogenesis occurs off the southeast coast during the day, the focus for precip will shift quickly east with limited rainfall coverage expected by the afternoon. The cooler airmass to the north of the front will hold temperatures in the lower to mid 50s across the northern and western portion of the forecast area, with upper 50s and lower 60s to the south of the boundary in the Big Bend. Highs right along the boundary will be tricky with any undulations having a significant impact on temperatures. By Wednesday, a shortwave ejecting from the southwestern states will force low pressure to develop over the western Gulf. The low is forecast to track just offshore and then into the southeastern Big Bend Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Divergence aloft coupled with strong isentropic lift (thanks to a 50-60 knots 850mb jet) will provide plenty of forcing for widespread rain on Wednesday. A stripe of widespread 2-3 inch rainfall totals are likely somewhere, with current indications favoring the Big Bend into South Central Georgia for the heaviest rainfall. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... Seasonably cool and dry weather will be on tap to start the extended period as the previously mentioned system exits the region. The upper flow along the Gulf Coast is forecast to return to a zonal configuration pretty quickly behind this system, keeping the bulk of the arctic air confined well north of the area. Should see a warming trend kick in by the weekend as heights begin to rise and high temperatures reach back into the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Tuesday] Conditions will continue to improve this afternoon. VFR conditions are likely by late afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate once again around midnight due to a stationary boundary lingering over the region. Steady rain is very likely overnight and in the morning hours. IFR ceilings are likely overnight and patchy fog is a possibility with abundant low level moisture.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds will gradually diminish through the overnight hours as a cold front stalls over the waters. Conditions will remain below headline levels until Wednesday, when winds and seas will increase ahead of a low pressure system moving across the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will build in behind the low pressure, keeping winds and seas elevated into the weekend.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected over the next several days due to a series of frontal systems that will bring rain to the area Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&& .Hydrology...
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On Wednesday, a low pressure system is poised to bring moderate to heavy rainfall to the area with widespread totals in the 2-3" range and isolated higher totals possible. This will cause several of our area rivers to rise into action stage. At this time, flooding is not expected, but if widespread rainfall amounts exceed 3 inches, then the Kinchafoonee Creek and Ochlockonee, Aucilla, and upper Withlacoochee River basins could approach minor flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 50 58 47 55 45 / 60 60 30 90 80 Panama City 48 54 45 56 45 / 50 50 40 90 60 Dothan 42 50 41 45 37 / 70 60 30 90 60 Albany 43 53 41 48 38 / 70 70 20 90 70 Valdosta 49 56 46 56 44 / 70 70 30 90 80 Cross City 53 62 49 62 53 / 30 30 30 70 80 Apalachicola 52 59 49 61 45 / 40 50 40 90 70
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...CAMP/MERRIFIELD HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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