Area Forecast Discussion
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421 FXUS62 KTAE 171404 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1004 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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As the trough digs deeper the front will push through bringing lower dewpoints. We are already seeing some of this drier air behind a line of stratus that moved through this morning. The 12Z sounding was much drier with a PWAT of 1.72 inches compared to 2.29 inches yesterday. Rain chances are much lower than yesterday with the highest being 20-30 percent in the Big Bend. Highs will be in the low 90s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions with light winds are expected at all the terminals through the remainder of the period with the one exception of a period of MVFR visibility at VLD after 09Z. Most of today`s convection should remain south and east of TLH and VLD.
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&& .Prev Discussion [258 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... The upper level trough with axis along or near the eastern seaboard will continue to deepen through the period with much drier air overspreading the region through Thursday. Another weak frontal boundary will push down from the north on Friday as well as an increase in deep layer moisture as an upper low begins to close off east of the NE FL/SE GA coast. Will reintroduce rain chances across the area on Friday with the best chance (30-40%) across the coastal waters and SE Big Bend. Despite the passage of the cold front earlier this week, max temps will continue at or just above seasonal levels. Lows both nights will be in the mid to upper 60s. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... By Friday night, the mid level pattern begins to stagnate as models show an upper low cutting off just south of the southeast U.S coast as a weak ridge builds across the Mid Atlantic States. This type of pattern will keep partly to mostly skies in place through the weekend with moderate easterly flow. Low end rain chances can be expected, especially across the eastern portions of the region. Late Sunday and into Monday the pattern across the CONUS becomes highly amplified with a deepening trough across the Eastern US and a large ridge across the western states. As this pattern amplifies, the models diverge in whether a cold front will make its way into the Gulf Coast States and possibly beyond. The 16/12z Euro stalls the boundary across our region as the main mid and upper level support lifts out into New England whereas the 16/00z and 16/12z GFS had some degree of frontal passage late in the period. Climatology in late September would argue against a front clearing the forecast area, so will lean closer on a solution supported by the latest Euro for late in the period. .Marine... Relatively light winds and low seas are expected across the marine area through the remainder of the week. Winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate levels on Saturday as high pressure builds down the Atlantic seaboard. .Fire Weather... Despite the gradual influx of significantly drier air into the region, which will peak on Thursday afternoon, relative humidities and other fire weather parameters are not expected to approach Red Flag levels through the period. .Hydrology... The Florida Panhandle saw heavy rain yesterday with totals of 2 to 4 inches, even up to 9 inches at one location. While there is a chance of rain again tomorrow, QPF will be light and should not have a significant effect on rivers which are all below flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 91 69 92 68 89 / 20 10 10 10 20 Panama City 89 71 90 71 86 / 10 10 10 10 20 Dothan 91 66 89 65 89 / 10 10 0 10 20 Albany 91 66 89 66 88 / 10 10 10 10 20 Valdosta 90 67 92 66 88 / 10 10 10 10 20 Cross City 88 70 92 69 88 / 30 10 10 10 30 Apalachicola 88 74 89 73 85 / 20 10 10 10 20 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...WESTON SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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