Area Forecast Discussion
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648
FXUS62 KTAE 270041
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
841 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
This should be the last night of a widespread stratus deck before
we begin to move into a much wetter pattern more typical of summer.
This evening`s sounding already shows an increase in moisture with
PWATS at 1.33 inches (nearly 0.4 inches greater than 24 hours ago).
Through the remainder of the night, most locations should reach the
low-mid 60s before the stratus begins to take hold and limits
further cooling around 08-10z. Some models are not as vigorous with
this deck compared to this morning, but went mostly with persistence
considering the synoptic environment has not changed markedly and
our easterly flow regime typically correlates with good stratus
production. With non-existent forcing, and plenty of dry air above
750mb, precip is not expected through the morning hours.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...
Widespread low cigs are expected tonight and tomorrow morning at
all terminals as easterly flow and abundant low-lev moisture
produces a stratus deck that will push west-southwest. ABY/VLD
should reach IFR tonight for a few hours beginning at 09z while
TLH/DHN reach IFR at 10z and ECP at 11z. The largest uncertainty
in the duration of IFR/MVFR conditions. Currently have all
terminals in MVFR by 15z but it is not out of the question for
them to last longer considering the favorable setup for stratus.
All terminals should be VFR by 20z with a small chance for VCSH
near VLD/TLH, but confidence was not high enough to warrant
mention in the 00z TAFs

&&

.Prev Discussion [310 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Deep moisture will be in place throughout the period with forecast
PW`s in the 2.0" to 2.3" range. As the upper trough approaches, a
weak surface low is likely to develop just south of New Orleans
on Sunday. This feature will slide eastward over or near our
Florida zones by Sunday evening further enhancing showers and
thunderstorms across our local region. Some heavy rainfall amounts
could occur, especially Sunday and Sunday night over the Florida
panhandle. QPF amounts are currently in the 1-3 inch range through
the next 48 hours for these ares with the potential of isolated
amounts up to 6 inches. There is still a lot of uncertainty with
amounts and location and will be monitored closely on the next few
model runs. PoPs will be in the likely to categorical range. Max
temps will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows around 70.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

The surface low is forecast to continue to track eastward across
our Florida zones Monday with a continuing threat for some heavy
rainfall, especially along the Gulf coast. As the surface low and
upper trough shift to our east Monday night into Tuesday we will
see a gradual decrease in deep layer moisture along with
significantly lower rain chances through the remainder of the
week. Expect temperatures to run near or just above normal.


.Marine...

Northeasterly flow will continue through tonight before shifting
to easterly on Saturday and southeasterly Saturday night into
Sunday. Conditions will likely reach exercise caution levels
beginning tonight and continuing at least through Saturday for all
but Apalachee Bay. Light to occasionally moderate winds can be
expected as they swing around from the east to west Saturday
night into early next week.


.Fire Weather...

As we transition to a very wet pattern, there will be no fire
weather concerns through at least early next week.


.Hydrology...

General rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely across the
forecast area through Monday, except 2 to 3 inches with locally
higher amounts along the panhandle coast. These amounts are not
expected to result in any river flooding due to low flows from the
recent dry summer. However, isolated instances of flash flooding
cannot yet be ruled out for Sunday, mainly along the panhandle
coast. It is too soon to consider any watches, but this trend will
have to be monitored.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  86  72  86  71 /  10  50  50  70  60
Panama City   71  84  74  85  74 /  10  60  70  80  60
Dothan        65  85  70  84  69 /  10  40  60  80  60
Albany        66  85  70  85  69 /  10  40  40  70  60
Valdosta      68  86  70  86  70 /  10  50  30  60  50
Cross City    71  86  71  87  70 /  30  60  40  60  50
Apalachicola  72  84  75  84  75 /  20  60  70  80  60

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...GODSEY/DOBBS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD




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