Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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248 FXUS62 KTAE 211944 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 344 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER MEXICO FOR MANY DAYS NOW IS FINALLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS TEXAS AND WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL LIKELY FORM AN A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST ALL THE WAY TO NORTH FLORIDA AND BEYOND. IT IS THE LATTER FEATURE AND THE SEA BREEZE THAT WILL TOUCH OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEER AROUND 40 KT, AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT EDGING GRADUALLY INLAND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AS DPVA INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. POPS WILL RANGE FROM LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. .SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]... A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO MIDDLE GEORGIA. MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS AND AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY, A FEW STRONGER STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE PRIMARY THREAT AT THIS TIME IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN`T BE RULED OUT BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG. .LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]... MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AFTER A COOL TUESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BEFORE COOLING AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 06Z. AFTER THAT TIME, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .MARINE...
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A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN LOW WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA DESPITE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. BY MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGH.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ON SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. MODEST RISES IN AREA RIVERS TO ACTION STAGE ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 63 82 62 77 52 / 40 70 70 60 10 PANAMA CITY 65 74 65 72 55 / 30 70 60 20 10 DOTHAN 61 75 59 67 51 / 70 90 70 40 10 ALBANY 60 73 57 63 49 / 60 90 90 60 10 VALDOSTA 63 80 61 69 51 / 50 80 80 70 10 CROSS CITY 63 83 64 80 52 / 20 30 50 60 10 APALACHICOLA 65 77 66 76 58 / 20 50 60 40 10
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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