Area Forecast Discussion
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670 FXUS62 KTAE 221443 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 943 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The 7 am EST regional surface analysis showed a cold front from north GA through southern LA. This front will move slowly through our forecast area tonight and Monday. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed mostly zonal flow over the Gulf Coast states, with a few embedded minor short wave troughs. Local radars showed areas of rain across southern AL & MS, and the latest consensus of CAMs appear to have a decent handle on this. We expect some of this rain to affect our southeast AL and southwest GA region this afternoon, but rain chances elsewhere will be slight. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s around Cross City and Valdosta, to upper 60s around Dothan and Panama City (where cloud cover will be more extensive).
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Monday] But for KDHN, mainly VFR cigs are expected today. At KDHN, IFR cigs will gradually lift to MVFR levels by early afternoon. Periods of rain are likely at KDHN, and an isolated TSRA can`t be ruled out. Only isolated SHRA are expected elsewhere. Recent statistical guidance and raw model output indicate a high likelihood of IFR (or worse) cigs and/or fog overnight, and we will likely have to add this in our 18 UTC TAF package.
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&& .Prev Discussion [627 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... The cold front mentioned above will push through the forecast area tonight into Monday. The best chance of rain will be across the northwest half of the area as the front will be weakening as it moves through. Model disagreements become apparent by Tuesday as the NAM and ECMWF spread additional light rain into the area with a weak upper level shortwave while the GFS is drier. The official forecast went with a compromise and shows 30-50% PoPs. With an increase in cloud cover expected on Tuesday, high temperatures will be held down somewhat with lower 50s expected across the north and mid 50s to near 60 across the southeast big bend. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... A more significant system is possible on Wednesday with both the GFS and ECMWF indicating a fairly vigorous upper level shortwave with a surface low moving along the coast. With the 00z models in general agreement on the timing, PoPs were bumped up to 70% for Wednesday. This looks like a decent rainfall producer with a couple of inches possible across the area. With the surface low expected to track south of the area, the airmass currently looks too stable for thunderstorms across our area. After the Wednesday system, another system is possible for next weekend. Overall, high temperatures are expected to be a bit below average with lows near average. .Marine... Southerly winds will be subsiding today. However by late tonight into Monday, a cold front will move through the coastal waters, bringing an increase in northerly winds possibly to cautionary levels mainly west of Apalachicola. Winds are then expected to be light for Tuesday before increasing again on Wednesday to near advisory levels as an area of low pressure moves along the coast. .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. .Hydrology... Several rounds of rainfall are possible this week with the best chance for an areawide moderate to possibly heavy rainfall event expected on Wednesday. Total rainfall is generally expected to be in the 2-3 inch range with isolated higher totals possible. This will cause rises on area rivers and may bring a few of our sites back up to action stage. At this time, flooding is not expected, although if widespread rainfall amounts were to increase above 3 inches, then the Kinchafoonee Creek as well as the Ochlockonee and Aucilla Rivers could come close to minor flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 71 55 69 49 57 / 20 20 20 40 50 Panama City 66 57 63 48 54 / 30 20 20 40 50 Dothan 69 49 59 41 51 / 60 50 20 40 50 Albany 70 51 61 40 51 / 40 50 20 30 40 Valdosta 74 55 68 45 53 / 10 20 20 40 50 Cross City 74 54 72 50 60 / 10 10 20 30 50 Apalachicola 66 58 68 51 57 / 20 10 20 40 50
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...DVD

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