Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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345 FXUS62 KTAE 261937 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 337 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AS OF 18Z...WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THAT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOSTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGER AREA OF MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN...NEAR THE RESERVOIRS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EXISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA (80-100 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS). A FEW OF THE STORMS IN THE EASTERN BIG BEND OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AT A COUPLE OF OBSERVATION SITES IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SO AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT WERE MAINTAINED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12Z. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW. .SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]... THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES. A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE MID 30S FROM AROUND ALBANY, GA NORTHWARD WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AREAS. .LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]... ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY ON MONDAY. THE FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING... TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY] RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER LIKELY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BECOMING MVFR TO VFR BY MID MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE MORNING.
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&& .MARINE...
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MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY AND REMAINING LOW AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...THE FUEL MOISTURE CRITERIA WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET. RH VALUES OUTSIDE OF FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH DISPERSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH DUE TO STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST. LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 63 71 39 65 45 / 80 40 0 10 10 PANAMA CITY 59 67 46 62 50 / 70 30 0 10 10 DOTHAN 53 64 38 62 42 / 70 20 0 10 10 ALBANY 57 66 35 61 42 / 70 30 0 10 10 VALDOSTA 62 73 39 62 44 / 70 60 0 10 10 CROSS CITY 65 75 42 66 46 / 70 80 0 10 10 APALACHICOLA 65 73 46 63 51 / 80 40 0 10 10
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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