Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 141829
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
229 PM EDT Tue May 14 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Another cool night will be on tap with unseasonably dry air in
place, along with clear skies. Temperatures will once again drop
noticeably after sunset but are not expected to dip quite as low as
last night. Minimum temps will bottom out in the lower 50s inland
and around 60 on the coast, which is still around 10-15 degrees
below normal. Have only tweaked mins a bit, but otherwise current
forecast remains on track.
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
As the upper level trough continues to pull further away to the
east, the ridge to our west will build over the area. The resulting
rising heights will contribute to a warming trend. Afternoon highs
will be in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. These numbers are fairly close to seasonal norms.
Short wave energy moving overhead on Thursday and Thursday night
will bring an increase in mid and upper level cloudiness during
those periods. However, the surface high currently centered over the
area will only drift a bit to the south over the next couple of days
and keep rain chances out of the forecast.
.LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday]...
The surface ridge axis will essentially remain in place through the
period with the axis wavering back and forth from our coastal waters
to just inland. This will keep a general onshore flow of moist air
coming in from the Gulf of Mexico. There will be sufficient moisture
by weeks end to allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop on the
sea breeze and any follow on outflow boundaries, with some
occasional additional forcing for ascent provided by weak impulses
in northwesterly flow aloft. Daytime PoPs will generally be in the
20-30 percent range through the period. Afternoon max temps will be
near seasonal norms in the upper 80s, with cooler upper 70s to lower
80s at the beaches. Overnight lows will be slightly above normal in
the lower to mid 60s.
[Through 18z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected through the
period with prevailing winds of 10 knots or less. Only concern on
flight operations may be around KTLH were nearby fires are
maintaining smoke plumes this afternoon, primarily south of the
airport. There could be some vsby limitations after dark if the
smoke remains trapped near the airport. However, for now expect it
won`t restrict below VFR conditions.
A ridge of high pressure pressure will remain in place over or just
north of the waters through the weekend. This high will keep winds
light and primarily onshore with a slight enhancement in wind speeds
each afternoon in the nearshore sea breeze.
With a slight shift in the weather pattern allowing more flow off of
the Gulf, we expect a slow moistening trend to begin Wednesday and
continue through the rest of the week. This should boost RH above
Red Flag criteria, although relatively dry fuels may continue to
support near RFW criteria for another day in parts of northern FL.
No rainfall is expected until at least Friday and with coverage of
storms expected to be isolated for the most part over the weekend,
there are no concerns on area rivers and creeks.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 52 86 58 87 61 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 61 83 65 84 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 57 88 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
Albany 57 88 60 88 62 / 0 0 0 10 10
Valdosta 51 86 59 86 61 / 0 0 0 10 10
Cross City 50 86 57 86 59 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 56 80 62 82 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
FL...RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-
Near Term/Aviation/Fire Weather...Evans
Rest of Discussion...Wool