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460
FXUS62 KTAE 140141
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
941 PM EDT Mon May 13 2013

...Record Low Temperatures Still Expected Tonight...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
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Current fcst appears well on track, with dry air, near calm winds
and clear skies supporting strong radiational cooling. This will
allow temperatures to fall well below normal levels, with record
low temperatures appearing likely in the colder interior locations.
Some selected records for tonight are as follows:

Tallahassee 47 in 1960.
Apalachicola 54 in 1981.
Albany 47 in 1960.
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&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The long wave trough will continue to pull away from the area
allowing heights to rise. A ridge will be over the area for Tuesday
night and Wednesday. The next short wave will be over the Southern
Plains on Wednesday and the Lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z
Thursday. The surface ridge axis will settle south of the area on
Tuesday and remain in place for several days. This will keep the
forecast area dry and we will see a moderating trend in
temperatures. After a chilly start, the dry airmass will allow temps
to rapidly rise with all areas topping out in the lower 80s. A
moderating trend will continue. Lows will be in the 50s Tuesday
night and with a degree or two either side of 60 on Wednesday night.
Highs Wednesday will be mainly in the upper 80s across the inland
zones with 90 not out of the question. Coastal areas will be cooled
by a sea breeze with highs of 76-80 degrees at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
Upper level flow will remain progressive with a short wave trough
moving east across the Gulf Coast states Thursday and Thursday
night. A period of ridging will follow. However, the axis never
quite makes it this far east and keeps the area in northwest flow.
The next long wave trough then builds into the Southeast on Monday.
At the surface, the ridge axis will remain in place just south of
the coast through the entire period. That will protect the forecast
area from any widespread precipitation. However, we will actually
being seeing temps and dew points typical for mid to late May. This
will provide enough moisture and instability to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms to develop on the sea breeze and other
boundaries, possibly aided by impulses coming into the area in the
northwesterly flow aloft. PoPs will generally be in the 10-20
percent range on Thursday, rising to 20-30 percent from Friday
through the weekend. With the sea breeze being a primary catalyst,
areas along the immediate coast may stay dry through the period.

&&

.Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Wednesday] VFR Conditions will prevail at all
terminals through the TAF period. Expect winds to go calm shortly
after sunset. Tomorrow as high pressure continues to dominate our
area, winds will be generally light around 5 to 10 knots with an
occasional gust to 15.
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&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure centered over Mississippi will slip south
into the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and then set up over or
just south of the waters from Tuesday through the end of the week.
Offshore winds will continue to subside below cautionary levels this
afternoon, although they will hold around 15 knots over the offshore
legs through tonight. As the ridge settles over the area, winds will
become light Tuesday afternoon and then be onshore at 10 knots of
less from Wednesday through Saturday. There may be some minor
enhancement of wind speeds each afternoon in the sea breeze zone
near the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Deep layer ridging will begin to overspread the region tomorrow
afternoon, continuing the trend of dry weather. Long durations of
low relative humidity will couple with high ERC values, and
warrant a Red Flag warning. The exact distribution of counties
will be known once the ERC forecast comes in later this afternoon.
At that time, the watch will be upgraded appropriately. On
Wednesday, durations of critically low RH to not appear to be
likely and the airmass will gradually moisten through the
remainder of the week. Thus, after tomorrow, Red Flag conditions
are not anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No rainfall is expected until at least Friday and with coverage of
storms expected to be isolated for the most part over the weekend,
there are no concerns on area rivers and creeks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   45  83  52  86  59 /  0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   57  81  60  83  65 /  0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        49  84  58  88  62 /  0   0   0   0   0
Albany        47  83  56  89  62 /  0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      45  81  52  87  60 /  0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    44  82  51  87  59 /  0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  55  78  57  81  61 /  0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM
     CDT/ Tuesday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-
     Inland Wakulla-Leon-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
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&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Heller/Gould
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...Navarro/Harrigan
MARINE...Heller/Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Navarro/Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Wool