Area Forecast Discussion
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975 FXUS62 KTAE 191852 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 252 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The nearly stacked low pressure system over NE FL/SE GA this afternoon will continue to slowly depart ENE into the coastal waters tonight. At the same time...surface high pressure will nose Swd from Ern Canada into the GA. The result will be strengthening NE low level flow which will transport ample wrap around moisture from Atlc back towards our CWA in the form of low stratus and possibly some drizzle especially for our Ern counties. PWATs hover near 1 inch overnight especially east of Apalachicola River. HI RES guidance show last drizzle/-R exiting NEWD of our CWA around 03Z and this looks reasonable. Will go with 0-30% SW-NE POP gradient down to zero everywhere after 03z. Model soundings all show strengthening NNE flow to H8 then NW flow above which will yield NNE winds around 10 KT and make it difficult for any fog to develop especially Wrn half of CWA. Low temps from near 50 in less cloudy SE AL to low 50s elsewhere. .Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... Low clouds may linger into Sunday in association with wrap-around moisture around the departing area of low pressure east of the area. Otherwise, look for deep layer ridging, clearing skies and seasonal temps to start the work week. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... The next frontal system looks like it will move through the area on Tuesday. However, it looks weak and fast moving with most of the deep layer moisture affecting the northern half of the area with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pattern appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and another weak system may affect the area on Saturday. The remainder of the period looks dry with near to slightly above average temperatures.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Sunday] Widespread IFR to low end MVFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS (especially at KABY/KVLD/KTLH) will continue through this afternoon with only a slight improvement this eve. Patchy -DZ and even a small chance of Shwrs are possible especially at VLD during rest of this aftn. Surface winds will be N 10 TO 15 KT with higher gusts then will remain at or above 10 KT overnight and into Sunday so anything beyond patchy predawn light fog unlikely. However... under NE low level flow...IFR to LIFR cigs are likely again for tonight. After around 14z...CIGS will lift to MVFR and likely VFR at DHN/ECP.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds and seas will start the night at cautionary levels, but a gradual decreasing trend is expected as the night progresses. No major systems are expected to affect the area through next week, and winds are expected to stay generally around 15 knots or less after tonight.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Cloudy and cool conditions will continue into Sunday morning... especially ERN areas. Red Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Most of the area saw rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with higher amounts of 4 to 5.5 inches in Southeast Alabama and Walton and Holmes counties in Florida. These rainfall amounts in additional to rainfall from earlier in the week have led to a rise on rivers with many area rivers in flood stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points along the following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood stage: St. Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers. The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found on our AHPS page (below). http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 52 70 51 79 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 Panama City 53 71 56 76 61 / 10 0 0 0 10 Dothan 50 73 52 79 57 / 10 0 0 0 10 Albany 51 72 51 79 54 / 20 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 52 70 50 79 53 / 30 0 0 0 0 Cross City 53 75 52 80 54 / 20 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 54 69 55 74 58 / 10 0 0 0 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Gulf. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...BLOCK SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...BLOCK MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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