Area Forecast Discussion
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529 FXUS62 KTAE 151559 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1059 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Upper ridge along the eastern seaboard (along with the surface high) will slide eastward through the day today as an upper low lifts northeast into Iowa. For the local area, skies will remain mostly clear today, with temperatures rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s once again. Current forecast is on track with no significant changes planned.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Tuesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with light winds at all of the terminals. Clouds will begin to increase late tonight. However, cigs should remain above 3kft.
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&& .Prev Discussion [321 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... The ridging that has been the dominate feature for the last several days will slide eastward as an upper level trough lifts north of the area on Tuesday. With low level moisture returning ahead of the weak cold front tonight, some areas of fog could develop. The front will push through the area during the day on Tuesday with just some scattered showers associated with it. Afternoon high temperatures on Tuesday will be rather warm ahead of the front with low to mid 70s expected over most of the area. A slight cool down back to near average temperatures for this time of year is expected on Wednesday behind the front. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... The next system of interest is expected to arrive between the Friday night and Saturday time frame. There remains some model disagreement with this system with the ECMWF showing a much stronger system than the GFS. The Canadian model is not as strong as the ECMWF, but it shows more moisture and better chance of rain over the area than the GFS does. The WPC is leaning towards a better chance of rain as well, so with this in mind, PoPs were trended upward. A slight chance of thunderstorms was also added across the western third of the area out of respect for the stronger ECMWF scenario. Temperatures are expected to be mostly near seasonal averages through the period. .Marine... Light winds and low seas will prevail through today. For tonight through Tuesday, an uptick of winds to near 15 knots will be possible behind a cold front, mainly to the west of Apalachicola. Winds and seas will then subside once again for Wednesday and Thursday with another increase expected for Friday into next weekend. .Fire Weather... Despite generally fair, seasonable, and dry weather today, conditions will not be dry enough to cause any Red Flag concerns. Increasing moisture and a chance of rain tomorrow will also preclude any fire weather hazards. .Hydrology... No flooding issues are expected over the next several days. A weak system may bring a few light showers on Tuesday. A better chance of rain may arrive around Friday night or Saturday.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 70 46 75 42 66 / 0 0 30 0 0 Panama City 68 56 72 46 62 / 0 20 50 0 0 Dothan 69 51 70 40 62 / 0 30 40 0 0 Albany 67 46 71 39 64 / 0 20 50 0 0 Valdosta 69 43 73 42 65 / 0 0 30 0 0 Cross City 69 41 73 44 67 / 0 0 20 0 0 Apalachicola 67 53 71 46 62 / 0 0 30 0 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...DVD

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