Area Forecast Discussion
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080
FXUS62 KTAE 171922
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
322 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Active afternoon across the region as moderate westerly flow has
helped push convection inland across the region. Storms continue to
fire west of I-65 in Southwestern Alabama and these should continue
moving eastward through the late afternoon and evening hours. These
storms will likely be in a weakening phase while nearing Southeast
Alabama by sunset, so expect most storms across the region to end by
midnight. Overnight as skies inland clear, expect scattered showers
and storms to develop over the coastal waters, particularly west of
Apalachicola. Some of these storms will near the Panhandle coast
around sunrise on Monday. Low temperatures will be on the warm side,
generally in the mid 70s.


.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
High pressure in place will keep deep level westerly flow through
the period with very little if any southerly component. This means
there won`t be much moisture transport and PWATs will stay in the
normal range for this time of year. Given these near normal moisture
values and the 1000-700mb flow being west at over 10 knots, going
close to climo values for regime 5 sea-breeze Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures will also be near normal for this time of year with
highs Monday and Tuesday in the low to mid 90s and lows will be in
the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
As the long term period begins Wednesday, high pressure will shift
northward/inland from the Gulf, shifting the winds from westerly to
northwesterly and then variable. This will mean even less moisture
transport, keeping PoPs slightly below climo for this time of year.
Temperatures will be warmer than normal, with highs reaching the mid
to upper 90s and lows only dipping into the mid 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday] VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms will
prevail through the early morning hours. With skies expected to
clear overnight, expect MVFR/IFR vsbys to develop at most sites,
with the greatest likelihood of restrictions being at VLD.
Restrictions should end by 13z with VFR conditions returning through
the end of the TAF cycle.

&&

.Marine...
With high pressure over the northern Gulf, winds will generally
be from the west-southwest at 10 knots or less, with surges along
the coastline to about 15 knots in the evenings. Waves will be 2
feet or less through the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals through Tuesday are expected to range from .25 to .50
inches. With all area rivers below action stage, no flooding is
expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  94  76  95  75 /  20  50  10  40  20
Panama City   79  90  79  91  78 /  20  40  20  30  10
Dothan        74  95  74  93  74 /  30  40  20  40  20
Albany        74  94  74  94  75 /  40  30  20  30  20
Valdosta      73  94  75  94  74 /  20  40  20  40  20
Cross City    74  92  74  93  74 /  10  30  10  30  10
Apalachicola  78  90  78  91  79 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN






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