Area Forecast Discussion
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560
FXUS62 KTAE 190224
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1024 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
As the upper low approaches the forecast area, the large scale
lift has pushed to the north, taking the heavy rainfall with it.
With the end of the heavy rain, the Flood Watch has been
cancelled. While the widespread rain is ending, the proximity of
the upper low will continue to support scattered showers through
the overnight hours into Saturday morning. Have trimmed back the
PoPs to better reflect the scattered nature of the precip.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday] A low stratus deck will persist overnight at
all terminals, with IFR/LIFR cigs likely until Saturday morning.
Clouds will likely be slow to lift and dissipate in the late
morning and afternoon, with IFR or MVFR cigs likely to persist
through much of the day. Winds will gradually become more
northerly, generally ranging from 10-20 kt through the rest of the
period at all terminals.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas are increasing once again as low pressure deepens
and moves northeast into the Florida Big Bend. Expect Small Craft
Advisory conditions to continue into Saturday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [313 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Mid/upper level shortwave trough remains quite progressive and
will be exiting the area through the day tomorrow. Expect low
clouds and chance of light showers will linger into the morning
with clearing spreading from sw-ne across the region through the
day with ern/central GA counties the last to clear. In the wake of this
system, seasonably cool temperatures and gusty north winds will
invade the region. Tricky max T forecast for Saturday with much
depending on when and how much clearing develops. Have opted for
a blend with highs holding in the lower to mid 60s over central
GA and around 70 into parts of sern AL and the FL panhandle/ern
Big Bend. Otherwise, expect weather to improve significantly
during the holiday weekend with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures topping out in the mid 70s inland and lower 70s along
the beaches Sunday. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights
should range in the lower 50s.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The next frontal system will be fast moving and shift through
Tuesday bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Drier air will move in Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure builds
in over the area. The Euro has moisture returning Friday and
lingering through the end of the extended period, while the GFS is
a bit slower with arrival of the rain. Blended the two and went
with a slight chance of showers for Friday. Temperatures will be
seasonal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s.


.Fire Weather...
With such wet conditions today, there will be no fire weather issues
(i.e. Red flag conditions) through at least this weekend.


.Hydrology...
Many locations in the region are reporting 2+ inches of rain already
and the rain will last until late evening or even longer for the
northern portion of the region. Many of the area rivers are in minor
flood stage and a few are in moderate flood stage. The
Choctawhatchee River is rising quickly and is expected to reach
major flood stage near Bruce around midnight. The Flint River and
the Ochlockonee River are rising steadily and will begin to fall
early next week. The Suwannee River is rising steadily and will do
so until at least mid next week. Many locations will get another 1-2
inches of rain today.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  66  51  75  53 /  50  20  10   0   0
Panama City   51  70  54  75  59 /  40  10   0   0   0
Dothan        48  68  49  74  53 /  40  30  10   0   0
Albany        50  65  49  74  51 /  70  40  20   0   0
Valdosta      55  65  50  74  52 /  60  40  20   0   0
Cross City    59  70  51  76  53 /  50  20  10   0  10
Apalachicola  56  69  54  72  58 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...EVANS
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT







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