Area Forecast Discussion
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137 FXUS62 KTAE 251308 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 910 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014 .Near Term...
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This morning`s KTAE sounding shows deep layer northerly flow. It is also very dry with a PW of only 0.43". After a chilly start to the day with widespread min temps in the middle 40s, afternoon temps will warm into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees in the dry airmass and sunny skies. .Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... High pressure, at the surface and aloft, will build over the region tonight through Monday. This will keep the weather dry, and allow afternoon temperatures to warm back to above normal levels. Expect high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s on Sunday and the mid 80s on Monday. The very dry airmass will keep overnight lows seasonable, with upper 40s to lower 50s tonight and lower to mid 50s Sunday night. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... The upper ridge will continue to move east early in the period with a trough deepening into the Southeast by Thursday and Friday. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Wednesday and then slow down. There are still timing differences with the arrival of the front in our forecast area. However, any noticeably cooler air will not arrive until after the period. In the interim, temps will be above normal with highs gradually falling from the mid 80s on Monday to around 80 on Friday. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 50s inland with 60s near the coast.
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&& .Aviation... [Through 12Z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light northerly winds during the daytime hours. && .Marine... Light to moderate offshore flow today and tonight will weaken on Sunday as high pressure builds over the waters. Winds will become easterly to southeasterly on Monday through the middle of the week. No headline conditions are expected. && .Fire Weather... Relative humidity values this afternoon will drop into the mid 20s this afternoon. However, other necessary criteria for red flag conditions will be met. On Sunday, a slow moistening trend will begin which will keep relative humidity values above critical levels through at least the middle of next week. && .Hydrology... Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns across the region. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 80 48 83 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 79 58 81 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 79 54 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 79 52 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 79 50 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 80 45 82 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 79 54 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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