Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 180155
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
855 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2014

...Winter-like Airmass Moving into the Tri-State Area...

.Update...Skies are clearing from west to east with the cold
front now well to our south and east. Made minor adjustments to
sky grids otherwise no changes.

.Previous Discussion [320 PM EST]

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
At 1 pm EST, a strong cold front extended from just west of
Fitzgerald, GA, to Cape San Blas, FL. It was translating
east-southeastward near 20 MPH, and will clear our entire forecast
area by sunset. Deep moist convection well ahead of this front has
moved off to our east and southeast, ending the threat of severe
storms. The lingering light to moderate rain ahead of the front will
taper off quickly from northwest to southeast for the remainder of
this afternoon.

An unusually deep 500 mb trough will become established over the
eastern CONUS tonight, with strong cold air advection developing
across our region. Despite surface winds remaining near 10 MPH
overnight, temperatures will still reach freezing across the
northwest two-thirds of our forecast area. The combination of cold
temperatures and brisk winds will drive wind chill readings into the
15 to 20 deg range within a few hours either side of daybreak.
Actual low temperatures will range from the mid 20s (northwest) to
mid to upper 30s (FL beaches and Cross City area).

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A very cold airmass will continue to push into the region on
Tuesday as arctic high pressure builds towards the Deep South.
Highs will generally only be in the mid to upper 40s, except for a
few 50s along the coast and in the southeastern Big Bend.

The center of the high will settle over south central Georgia by
Wednesday morning, creating ideal radiational cooling conditions
over the forecast area. This will allow temperatures to plummet
into lower 20 across the entire forecast area, with a few upper
teens possible in the inland Panhandle, SE Alabama and SW Georgia.
The Wednesday record low for Tallahassee (25 degrees set in 2008)
is in serious jeopardy. A rare early season hard freeze appears
very likely at this time.

The airmass will be slow to modify through Thursday, with highs on
Wednesday only getting into the lower to mid 50s, and lows on
Thursday morning falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
Expect to see a steady moderation in temperatures from Thursday
through the weekend as the upper flow becomes zonal and then
southwesterly. Highs should approach 70 degrees once again by
Saturday. Rain chances will increase for Sunday into Monday as an
upper trough digs into the the Southern Plains.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday] Skies are clearing and we expect VFR
conditions throughout the TAF period. Winds will remain around 10
knots overnight and then in the 10 to 15 knot range with gusts
around 20 knots on Tuesday.

&&

.Marine...
Offshore flow will increase through tonight in the wake of the
cold front. Expect frequent gust to gale force over the offshore
waters and Small Craft Advisory conditions elsewhere. The gale
conditions should ease by mid-morning on Tuesday, with winds
continuing to diminish through Tuesday night. Winds and seas
should then remain below headline criteria through the end of the
work week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A significantly colder and drier airmass will settle into the
Tri-state region the next few days behind the exiting strong cold
front. Although high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will be
well below normal, dew points ranging from the single digits to
the teens will result in minimum relative humidity values in the
upper teens to the lower 20 percent range. Red Flag conditions are
likely across our southeast Alabama counties both Tuesday and
Wednesday. It will be just as dry across our Georgia and Florida
counties both days but Red Flag conditions are not expected at
this time.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall amounts have generally been below one inch across the
area today. However, a few locations from Washington County
Florida into SW Georgia received closer to 2 inches. With river
levels running quite low ahead of this system, only minor rises
are anticipated from these rainfall amounts.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  49  20  55  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   35  50  29  54  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        27  46  22  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        28  47  20  54  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      33  48  21  54  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    39  52  22  56  28 /  20   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  37  51  28  55  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Hard Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
     Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /Midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM
     CST/ Tuesday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Walton-Jackson-Liberty-South Walton-
     Washington.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 9 AM EST /8 AM
     CST/ Tuesday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Walton-Jackson-Washington.

GA...Hard Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
     Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for Baker-Ben
     Hill-Berrien-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-
     Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Hard Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Freeze Warning from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Tuesday for Coffee-
     Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Red Flag Warning all zones Tuesday afternoon.

     Fire Weather Watch all zones Wednesday afternoon.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday
     for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday
     for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to
     60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE...BARRY
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...CAMP






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