Area Forecast Discussion
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163 FXUS62 KTAE 270057 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 857 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Clear skies and tranquil conditions are expected. An upper level ridge to our west has kept most of the CWA dry today with only isolated thunderstorms on the seabreeze. Expect seasonal temperatures tonight in the low 70s inland with upper 70s along coastal regions. With drier air in place, no rain is anticipated.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Monday]... With significantly drier air pushing down from the north (especially at the mid levels), expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Although some of the guidance did show the potential for brief MVFR conditions at a few of the terminals late tonight, the very reliable HRRR showed no Vis or Cig restrictions at all. Also, no additional showers or storms are expected during entire period with poor instability.
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&& .Prev Discussion [238 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... Ridging will continue to build in over the region on Sunday. Expect little in the way of storm development on Sunday afternoon. As a result, the building ridge and mostly sunny skies should result in temperatures warming into the mid to upper 90s. The new MAV guidance showing a couple of locations with temperatures 100 degrees or warmer seem a little suspect. In any event, temperatures in the upper 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s will lead to afternoon heat indices in the 103 to 107 degree range, or just below heat advisory criteria. Future shifts will make the assessment for any advisories for Sunday. On Monday, the ridge will break down as a trough moves into the Tennessee River Valley pushing a cold front toward the Gulf Coast States. Expect this boundary to help focus afternoon and evening storm development, especially across Srn GA/AL where rain chances have been increased to around 50 percent. With a weakening ridge and scattered storms, expect highs only in the mid 90s. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... Model guidance continues to be in excellent agreement in the amplification of the Eastern CONUS trough through the long term period. As the trough deepens on Monday night into Tuesday, expect a cold front to move through the forecast area by Tuesday afternoon. While there are some slight differences on timing and magnitude of the cooler and drier air behind this frontal boundary, there is good agreement now that the front will clear to the south. Dry conditions should be in place across the region from Tuesday evening into Thursday. This interval will also feature some cool overnight lows, possibly dipping into the lower 60s in the colder spots across Southern Alabama. Even in the Florida Big Bend, temperatures Wednesday and Thursday mornings should drop into the upper 60s or just a bit cooler. Records for this period at Tallahassee are as follows: July 30 - 67 (1927) July 31 - 63 (1896) Aug 1 - 64 (1993) By Thursday afternoon, moisture will begin to increase once again across the forecast area as another upper disturbance within the main upper trough moves into the forecast area. Unsettled conditions look to return Friday and into next weekend with rain chances increasing considerably. While overnight lows will return to climatological norms for early August, daytime temperatures will still be below normal due to plenty of convective activity. .Marine... Moderate westerly flow will persist into Monday when winds will increase to cautionary levels into Tuesday ahead of a cold front moving into the marine area. This cold front will pass south of the waters on Tuesday evening with lighter winds returning. .Fire Weather... Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days, although high dispersion values are expected Sunday afternoon across inland Florida big bend and south central Georgia. .Hydrology... The Shoal River at Mossy Head has reached bank full stage but is not forecast to reach flood stage. All other area rivers are below bank full stage. Thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rainfall the next few days but widespread impacts are not expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 74 96 78 96 75 / 10 10 10 30 30 Panama City 78 93 79 91 77 / 10 10 10 30 30 Dothan 75 97 77 94 71 / 10 10 10 50 40 Albany 75 97 78 95 72 / 10 10 10 50 40 Valdosta 73 98 77 98 73 / 10 10 10 30 30 Cross City 73 95 76 94 76 / 20 10 10 20 30 Apalachicola 77 91 79 92 78 / 10 10 10 20 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for Coastal Bay. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN/Dobbs SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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