Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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970
FXUS62 KTAE 282005
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
405 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

A COOL AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
A STRONG TROUGH PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH LIGHT
WINDS, TEMPERATURES MAY REACH TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GOING
ANY LOWER.


.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THIS SIGNALS A
WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR AREA SHOULD
BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET; THUS
DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
QG FORCING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE 09Z SREF
MEAN AND 12Z GFS INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30 KNOTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR...A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COMBINATION THAT COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG STORMS. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MOST VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT MAY LINGER AROUND THE REGION FOR A
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT ON DETAILS...ENOUGH ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE INDICATING LIGHT QPF TO WARRANT SOME SMALL CHANCES OF
RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY 24-HOUR WINDOW
FOR DRY WEATHER WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY MID AND UPPER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A VERY DRY AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ARE EXPECTED. PREDICTED FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH
IN LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. THIS IS
NOT THE CASE IN OTHER COUNTIES. MOISTURE LEVELS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   38  69  45  78  58 /   0   0  10  20  20
PANAMA CITY   45  66  57  74  63 /   0   0  10  20  20
DOTHAN        36  66  49  77  56 /   0   0  10  50  20
ALBANY        36  65  46  77  53 /   0   0  10  40  20
VALDOSTA      37  67  43  76  54 /   0   0  10  20  20
CROSS CITY    37  68  41  75  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  43  65  55  74  63 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND
     WAKULLA-LEON.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-
     INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



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