Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 141923
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
323 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2013
.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
Scattered convection will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening hours, generally confined to the
southern third of the forecast area. Drier air has moved into the
northern two-thirds of the forecast area, limiting convection there.
A pulse severe storm or two cannot be ruled out through the early
evening hours across the Florida big bend where a strongly unstable
airmass resides with steep mid-level lapse rates and mid-level dry
air. Convection should begin to weaken after sunset.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...
Surface trough right along the gulf coast is forecast to weaken
on Saturday as the upper trough slides east and ridging builds
aloft. With a drier airmass in place and minimal forcing, expect
only isolated afternoon convection with the seabreeze. High
temperatures should be a bit warmer on Saturday, especially to the
west closer to the ridge, where mid 90s are on tap away from the
The ridge is forecast to flatten on Sunday, with a modest
increase in deep layer moisture. This should allow for slightly
higher PoPs associated with the seabreeze. High temperatures will
remain in the lower to mid 90s.
.LONG TERM [Monday through Thursday]...
The tri-state area will be on the southern periphery of the
faster westerlies early next week with scattered afternoon/evening
convection expected. Depending on the timing of a shortwave passing
to the north and its associated surface boundary, rain chances may
be higher on Tuesday through Thursday (especially over the
northern zones). Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal
[Through 18z Saturday] Conditions should remain primarily VFR with
isolated to scattered convection occasionally affecting areas
around KECP, KTLH, and KVLD through the early evening hours before
diminishing. The best chance of seeing any convection at the
terminal out of those three sites is at KTLH.
Surface trough just north of the waters is keeping winds at
cautionary levels this afternoon. Winds should diminish through
the weekend as the surface trough weakens and the subtropical
ridge builds back over the northern Gulf. Winds and seas should
remain low through the middle of next week.
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
.HYDROLOGY...River gauges are expected to remain below flood
stage for the next several days.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 93 73 92 71 91 / 40 20 20 10 30
Panama City 89 77 89 75 86 / 30 20 20 10 20
Dothan 94 72 94 72 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
Albany 93 71 93 69 92 / 20 10 0 0 20
Valdosta 93 70 92 67 91 / 40 30 10 10 20
Cross City 89 71 92 69 92 / 80 40 20 10 30
Apalachicola 87 76 87 75 85 / 40 20 20 10 20