Area Forecast Discussion
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225 FXUS62 KTAE 160932 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 432 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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An area of Dense Fog has formed across the SE FL Big Bend overnight, and this area has been very gradually building off to the NW during the last few hours. In fact, had to update the Dense Fog Advisory to include Madison and Jefferson counties, and with the Tallahassee Regional Airport (TLH) now reporting a Vis of 1/4 mile, may need to consider expanding this hazard into Leon and Wakulla counties as well before the morning rush hour is upon us. Other than the above mentioned fog, the major weather maker for today will be a weak cold front which will move from NW to SE from MS and AL into our region today. This cold front is extremely weak and starved for moisture as its primary shortwave continues to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes. Nevertheless, this front has managed to maintain a thin band of showers just out ahead of it, and with just a little bit of daytime insolation, see little reason why this band will not hold together in some form. At this time only showers are expected (no thunder with the very limited instability) and due to the extreme narrowness of the band, total QPF should be on the order of only 0.05" to 0.15" of rain, with the greatest amounts across extreme NW portions of the CWA. Additionally, once any fog and low cloudiness burns off, temps should be quite warm for this time of year, with highs ranging from around 70 degrees well to the north, to the middle 70s over much of the interior away from the immediate coast. .Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... Dry weather is expected through the short term period behind the front with high pressure the dominant feature. Clearing skies are expected tonight with mostly clear skies lasting through Wednesday night. Clouds are expected to start to increase somewhat on Thursday in association with the next system. Seasonal temperatures are expected. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... The next system of interest is still expected to arrive between the Friday night and Saturday time frame. There are still some disagreements on the strength of this system, although the last couple of ECMWF runs have trended weaker. Nevertheless, measurable rain chances still look fairly good on Saturday, so PoPs continue to creep upward. There may be just enough instability for an isolated thunderstorm or two, mainly over the western and southwestern portions of the area. This system is expected to exit the area with a brief break in the action before another system approaches on Monday or next Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be mostly near seasonal averages through the period.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12z Wednesday] Original thinking was that VFR conditions would prevail through the period, but as we approach sunrise on Tuesday morning, both TLH and VLD have dropped down to LIFR levels from the dense fog which formed earlier over the SE FL Big Bend. At the other terminals, MVFR conditions are likely to develop as some low cloudiness out ahead of a weak cold front which will move in from the west today with a few showers will likely lower Cigs and possibly Vis just a bit this morning. This pre-frontal band of clouds should also help to break up the LIFR level Vis now at TLH and VLD. By tonight, once this cold front pushes on through, a return to VFR conditions is expected areawide for the rest of the period.
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&& .Marine...
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Westerly winds will increase behind a cold frontal passage today with exercise caution conditions west of Apalachicola through the morning hours. Winds will then decrease for Wednesday and Thursday before increasing again on Friday and Saturday as the next low pressure system approaches the area.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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With plenty of low level moisture and scattered showers in the area today, clearly no fire weather concerns are expected. In fact, even the cooler and drier air, which is expected to return for the rest of the week, should have little or no impact as well, with afternoon relative humidities remaining safely above critical thresholds.
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&& .Hydrology...
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No flooding issues are expected over the next several days. A weak system will bring a few showers to the region today. A better chance of rain is expected on Saturday.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 76 40 65 37 68 / 40 0 0 0 0 Panama City 70 46 62 47 65 / 30 0 0 0 0 Dothan 71 38 61 39 64 / 50 0 0 0 10 Albany 73 37 63 35 65 / 40 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 75 39 64 38 66 / 40 10 0 0 0 Cross City 73 42 66 38 67 / 20 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 72 46 62 45 65 / 40 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Dixie- Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla- Lafayette-Leon-Madison. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...DVD

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