Area Forecast Discussion
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979 FXUS62 KTAE 262046 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 346 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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High pressure off the South Texas coast will shift eastward tonight with a west-east oriented ridge axis extending across the Florida Peninsula. While for a time, this may allow for surface winds to go calm, a clipper moving through the Tennessee Valley will tighten the pressure gradient across the region after midnight and will likely result in an increase in surface winds to between 5 and 10 mph. This will limit optimal radiational cooling conditions. With that in mind, it`s odd to see such a split in the guidance for a near term forecast with the MET in the lower 30s and the MAV closer to 40 across the area given similar mass fields. The pattern suggests a warmer solution is the more likely outcome, thus indicated upper 30s across much of the area. By daybreak the dry cold front with the clipper will be passing through the forecast area. .Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]... The aforementioned cold front will be southeast of our forecast area by late Thursday morning. Despite ample sun, high temperatures will be below average (mid 50s north, lower 60s south). Because the area of high pressure (at the surface) will still be northwest of our region Thursday night & Friday, winds may not be completely calm. This should keep low temperatures just above freezing (around 33 F) in FL and much of south GA, but a light freeze appears likely around Dothan and Albany. Highs will remain below average Friday (mid to upper 50s). As the surface ridge translates farther east Friday morning, a light freeze will be possible across the eastern half of the forecast area, especially from Tallahassee to Cross City. .Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]... The GFS and ECMWF are in agreement in building a deep layer ridge over the Southeast, but for a weak short wave trough around mid week next week. This means generally fair and mild weather, with highs in the mid 60s Saturday, then lower 70s after. Lows will be in the 40s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period. Winds will be from the northwest at 5 to 10 knots.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds and seas were just below advisory levels offshore this afternoon, but are expected to increase to marginal advisory levels late tonight. While the strongest winds (and highest seas) will be offshore, the 40% chance line of getting 20 KT is within the nearshore waters, so we will just issue a small craft advisory for our entire coastal waters beginning this afternoon. Exercise caution conditions will persist through early Friday, followed by a gradual reduction in winds & seas.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Although dry air will continue to overspread the region in the wake of a cold front, a combination of cool afternoon high temperatures and dewpoints higher than with our last cold front will preclude any critically low relative humidity values. However, breezy transport winds will increase dispersion indices to marginally high levels on Thursday.
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&& .Hydrology...
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The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River, minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are anticipated in the near future.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 38 60 33 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 46 59 39 56 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 38 56 32 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 38 57 31 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 39 59 33 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 39 63 33 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 45 61 39 57 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Gulf. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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