Area Forecast Discussion
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182 FXUS62 KTAE 301735 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 135 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The unusually deep, dry airmass will remain across our forecast area tonight. We don`t expect any showers in our region, though there could be a small shower or two nearby in Southeast GA. With dry air and light to calm winds, low temperatures will once again be below average (generally in the mid 60s, except around 70 at the beaches and urban areas). .Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... A gradual moistening trend in the low-mid troposphere is expected to end the work week, with 1000-700mb flow shifting from the current northwesterly direction to southerly or southeasterly by Thursday. PWATs should climb closer to normal levels by Friday, although they should remain below normal for another day (Thursday). This will set up another day of relatively dry weather tomorrow. There are some indications on model guidance that a few showers and storms could develop in the mid-late afternoon Thursday in our south-central Georgia counties with a surface pressure trough and convergence zone. A small PoP around 15% has been added for this possibility. Scattered storms will be possible over the entire area on Friday as greater low-mid level moisture arrives. Highs should be in the low-mid 90s each day with lows around 70 each night. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... The long term pattern will feature a nearly stationary mid-upper level longwave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast (in other words, just west of our area). This will set up a stretch of several days from the weekend into early next week with large scale forcing for ascent and PWATs around 2" (slightly above normal). Just considering those factors, we would expect days with relatively high convective coverage. However, the low-mid level flow will be out of the south or southeast, which also tends to favor a rainy pattern. Therefore, PoPs for Sunday to Tuesday have been increased into the "likely" range (~60%) with slightly cooler high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18z Thursday] Rain-free conditions will continue into Thursday afternoon, though a few showers or thunderstorms may develop after 18z Thursday around KVLD. Otherwise, we expect unrestricted VIS/unlimited CIGS to prevail through the period.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds over the eastern half of the coastal waters could approach SCEC levels later tonight, but should fall just short. Otherwise, a weak surface pressure pattern will likely keep winds light and seas 2 feet or less for the foreseeable future.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Unusually dry conditions (with low RH and rain chances) will continue into Thursday, but red flag conditions are not expected. A much wetter period is expected this weekend.
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&& .Hydrology...
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All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low flow stage. A cool, dry airmass is currently in place over the southeast, so there are no significant chances of rain until Saturday. Rainfall next week will be near our seasonal average, so no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 66 94 70 93 71 / 0 0 10 30 20 Panama City 70 90 74 89 74 / 0 0 10 30 20 Dothan 65 92 70 91 71 / 0 0 10 40 20 Albany 68 93 71 91 72 / 0 10 10 40 20 Valdosta 68 96 70 95 71 / 0 10 10 40 20 Cross City 66 94 69 92 71 / 0 10 10 30 20 Apalachicola 69 89 73 88 74 / 0 0 10 20 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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