Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 042126
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
426 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
After yet another late night through middle morning of low clouds
and widespread fog (much of the fog was dense yet again) across the
region, skies became partly cloudy during the late morning hours
similar to Tuesday. However, it appears that high temps may not be
quite as warm by today`s end, as strong and gusty SW winds off the
relatively cool Gulf of Mexico have developed in advance of an
approaching low pressure system from the west. However, they are
still reaching the upper 70s to the lower 80s over much of the
interior, and it is also more humid with Sfc Tds a few degrees
higher than Tuesday as well. For tonight, low temps will remain well
above normal, as they are only expected to bottom out into the lower
to middle 60s, which is a good 15 to 20 degrees above climatology.
Rain chances will also be on the increase from west to east, with
the best chances for rain over SE AL and the western FL Panhandle
after midnight. These increasing rain chances should help to
mitigate the probabilities for Dense Fog a bit more tonight. Over
the eastern 1/3 of the CWA, however, where rain is not expected
until Thursday, areas of Dense Fog will remain possible, and
locations from Valdosta to Tallahassee to the eastern sections of
the Coastal Waters will still need to be monitored for a possible
Dense Fog Advisory later tonight.
.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
A slow moving cold front will be approaching from the northwest on
Thursday into Friday. The best chance of rain along this boundary
will be on Thursday afternoon for most locations and on Friday
afternoon for the Big Bend region. Thunderstorms are not likely due
to the slow moving nature of this front with most of the rain
falling on the cool side. Friday night drier air will move in as the
front pushes further south. Thursday afternoon highs will range from
the mid 60s in the northwest to around 80 in the southeast. Highs
Friday will be mostly in the lower to mid 50s. Lows on Thursday
night will range from the upper 30s in the northwest to the low to
mid 50s in the southeast. Friday night lows will be mostly in the
mid 30s to mid 40s range.
.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
Drier air will remain in place until Sunday afternoon when clouds
start to move in ahead of a developing low in the Gulf. Sunday night
through the rest of the period expect plenty of cloud cover with a
chance or a slight chance of rain for the entire CWA as a Gulf Low
lingers in the Gulf bringing moisture to the area. Temps will be on
the cool side due to all the cloud cover with afternoon highs
generally in the 60s. Lows will generally be in the 40s and
[Through 18Z Thursday]
Ceilings have improved to MVFR and VFR this afternoon. Fog and
low ceilings will be a concern again tonight and guidance is
fairly confident in both occurring. Expect LIFR at all terminals
overnight with conditions improving to IFR and MVFR after 15Z.
Areas of fog are likely overnight with dense fog possible from
Apalachicola eastward. Expect light to moderate southerly winds.
Thursday evening a slow moving cold front will move through the
region bringing strong northerly winds. Advisory conditions are
briefly possible west of Apalachicola with cautionary conditions
elsewhere. Expect winds to be more moderate and northeasterly by
Friday afternoon. By Saturday morning winds will become light.
The warm and humid conditions will come to an end on Thursday
evening as a cold front moves through the region bringing a good
chance of rain. Cool and cloudy conditions will persist into the
weekend behind this front. As a result, red flag conditions are
not expected for the next several days.
All area rivers are now below flood stage, although several are
still in action or bank full stage. Rainfall totals will not be
high enough to cause a significant rise on rivers.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 62 77 51 56 40 / 10 60 30 40 10
Panama City 61 69 44 54 43 / 30 60 30 40 10
Dothan 64 65 38 51 37 / 40 60 30 30 10
Albany 64 70 41 50 35 / 30 70 30 40 10
Valdosta 62 81 45 52 39 / 10 40 40 40 10
Cross City 60 80 55 60 47 / 10 20 30 30 20
Apalachicola 62 72 48 56 44 / 20 60 30 40 20