Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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286
FXUS62 KTAE 202022
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
422 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT SWATH OF
RAIN SITUATED OVER MOST OF THE BIG BEND REGION IS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH IT AT THIS TIME. EXPECT CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY, LESSENING SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S, WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.


.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

WE WILL FINALLY SEE A SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE WET UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS THE JET STREAM
PULLS SEVERAL IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WESTERN WATERS
OVERNIGHT. STARTING TUESDAY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH 2
TO 3 FT SEAS. TUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE THESE DRIER
CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PARTS OF THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. BRUCE IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO
PREDICTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ON THE KINCHAFOONEE CREEK AT
DAWSON. INCREASED RELEASES FROM THE WOODRUFF DAM WILL RESULT IN THE
APALACHICOLA RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT BLOUNTSTOWN TONIGHT. WITH
THE EXPECTED RELEASES TO PEAK NEAR 60KCFS, THE RIVER LEVEL AT
BLOUNTSTOWN WILL BE NEAR 19 FEET BY WEDNESDAY, STILL IN THE MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   61  82  57  85  64 /  20   0  10  10  20
PANAMA CITY   62  76  63  79  67 /  10   0  10  10  30
DOTHAN        55  77  56  82  61 /  10   0  10  10  20
ALBANY        58  78  55  83  60 /  10   0  10  10  20
VALDOSTA      59  79  56  84  62 /  20   0  10  10  20
CROSS CITY    62  82  58  86  65 /  30   0  10  10  20
APALACHICOLA  65  79  63  82  68 /  20   0  10  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MERRIFIELD/CAMP
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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