Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 241433
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 AM EDT Fri May 24 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Very few changes needed to the mid morning update, mainly to
account for the earlier arrival of the breezy north winds. All in
all, drier air will continue to filter into the region. Although
seasonal highs around 90 are still anticipated for inland areas,
the dry air will allow unseasonably cool, almost fall-like, conditions to
be felt overnight as winds die down after dark. Expect inland Lows
tonight in the low to mid 50s (avg min for TAE is 64 degrees).
RECORD MIN TEMPS for May 25th
Tallahassee AP 48 Valdosta 53
Marianna 53 Headland AL 52
Apalachicola 56 Cross City 54
Tifton 52 Moultrie 52
.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]...
The large scale longwave Omega like pattern remains highly amplified
with full latitude trough axis along West coast and extreme Wrn Atlc
and a ridge anchored over Cntrl Conus. This leave local region
between ridge and Srn periphery of trough yielding dry NW steering
flow. Assocd shortwave over Ern OH Valley this morning exits into
ATLC by eve. At the surface, mainly dry cold front will have crossed
local area with high pressure over mid-South building SWD in its
wake. This translates locally to a cool, dry Cp airmass with NLY
flow and subsidence overspreading region. With local area between
departing front and ridge building SWD, gradients tighten for local
breezes especially over waters.
During the rest of the period, the upper air pattern will persist
but with local area increasingly on back side of lifting Ern
trough. So expect a `chamber of commerce` type weekend with warm
days and noticeably cool nights as high pressure continues to build
NE of region. Inland dew points drop to around 40 degrees by Sat
aftn and airmass should remain to dry for fog. Model time height
profiles show H85 to H3 RH around 10%. As front departs and high
shifts EWD, local gradients will slacken. Highs will be in the
mid 80s on Sat rising to the mid to upper 80s on Sun. Mins Sat
night again low to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
The overall pattern is expected to remain rather stagnant through
much of next week, with the troughs in place along the coasts and
the ridge over the center of the country. This will keep the
weather generally dry with temperatures close to seasonal norms.
ECMWF is a bit more amplified with the pattern, which may lead to
a few more showers over the Georgia zones by mid to late next
[through 18 UTC Saturday]...VFR conditions with mainly high level
cloudiness through the TAF cycle. Winds will be from the north-northwest
at 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots through the afternoon.
Offshore winds will increase to near advisory levels tonight in the
wake of a cold front. Will go with nearshore/offshore split and
insert exercise caution headlines in both zones. Winds and seas
will diminish by late Saturday, as high pressure builds over the
waters, and remain minimal through early next week.
Very dry air will filter into the Tri-State region over the next few
days. Critically low relative humidities will be reached over
interior portions of the Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend this
afternoon. This will combine with other critical fire weather
parameters resulting in red flag conditions. It will be just as dry
over our Alabama and Georgia zones but red flag criteria will not be
met. The watch that was in effect for southeast Alabama today has
been dropped. On Saturday we expect long durations of critically low
relative humidity combined with ERC`s at or above 37 over Leon and
Wakulla counties in the Florida Big Bend as well as our four
westernmost panhandle counties. A fire weather watch has been issued
for these areas. Dispersion will be above 75 over all of the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon. High dispersions are possible
again for a portion of our Florida zones again on Saturday.
No hydrologic concerns into next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 90 54 86 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 89 64 84 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 88 55 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 86 52 85 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 87 54 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 91 56 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 88 65 82 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
FL...RED FLAG WARNING from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7
PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Gadsden-Inland
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-
Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Leon-South