232
FXUS62 KTAE 241433
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 AM EDT Fri May 24 2013


.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Very few changes needed to the mid morning update, mainly to
account for the earlier arrival of the breezy north winds. All in
all, drier air will continue to filter into the region. Although
seasonal highs around 90 are still anticipated for inland areas,
the dry air will allow unseasonably cool, almost fall-like, conditions to
be felt overnight as winds die down after dark.  Expect inland Lows
tonight in the low to mid 50s (avg min for TAE is 64 degrees).

   RECORD MIN TEMPS for May 25th
Tallahassee AP 48      Valdosta    53
Marianna       53      Headland AL 52
Apalachicola   56      Cross City  54
Tifton         52      Moultrie    52


&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]...
The large scale longwave Omega like pattern remains highly amplified
with full latitude trough axis along West coast and extreme Wrn Atlc
and a ridge anchored over Cntrl Conus. This leave local region
between ridge and Srn periphery of trough yielding dry NW steering
flow. Assocd shortwave over Ern OH Valley this morning exits into
ATLC by eve. At the surface, mainly dry cold front will have crossed
local area with high pressure over mid-South building SWD in its
wake. This translates locally to a cool, dry Cp airmass with NLY
flow and subsidence overspreading region. With local area between
departing front and ridge building SWD, gradients tighten for local
breezes especially over waters.

During the rest of the period, the upper air pattern will persist
but with local area increasingly on back side of lifting Ern
trough. So expect a `chamber of commerce` type weekend with warm
days and noticeably cool nights as high pressure continues to build
NE of region. Inland dew points drop to around 40 degrees by Sat
aftn and airmass should remain to dry for fog. Model time height
profiles show H85 to H3 RH around 10%. As front departs  and high
shifts EWD, local gradients will slacken. Highs will be in the
mid 80s on Sat rising to the mid to upper 80s on Sun. Mins Sat
night again low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
The overall pattern is expected to remain rather stagnant through
much of next week, with the troughs in place along the coasts and
the ridge over the center of the country. This will keep the
weather generally dry with temperatures close to seasonal norms.
ECMWF is a bit more amplified with the pattern, which may lead to
a few more showers over the Georgia zones by mid to late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
[through 18 UTC Saturday]...VFR conditions with mainly high level
cloudiness through the TAF cycle. Winds will be from the north-northwest
at 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots through the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore winds will increase to near advisory levels tonight in the
wake of a cold front. Will go with nearshore/offshore split and
insert exercise caution headlines in both zones.  Winds and seas
will diminish by late Saturday, as high pressure builds over the
waters, and remain minimal through early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry air will filter into the Tri-State region over the next few
days. Critically low relative humidities will be reached over
interior portions of the Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend this
afternoon. This will combine with other critical fire weather
parameters resulting in red flag conditions. It will be just as dry
over our Alabama and Georgia zones but red flag criteria will not be
met. The watch that was in effect for southeast Alabama today has
been dropped. On Saturday we expect long durations of critically low
relative humidity combined with ERC`s at or above 37 over Leon and
Wakulla counties in the Florida Big Bend as well as our four
westernmost panhandle counties. A fire weather watch has been issued
for these areas. Dispersion will be above 75 over all of the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon. High dispersions are possible
again for a portion of our Florida zones again on Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  54  86  53  88 /  0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   89  64  84  64  82 /  0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        88  55  86  55  87 /  0   0   0   0   0
Albany        86  52  85  55  87 /  0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      87  54  84  52  85 /  0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    91  56  87  54  87 /  0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  88  65  82  64  82 /  0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7
    PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Gadsden-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Leon-South
     Walton-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Evans
SHORT TERM...Block
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Evans
MARINE...Block
FIRE WEATHER...Block
HYDROLOGY...Evans