Area Forecast Discussion
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983 FXUS62 KTAE 211922 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 322 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The mid/upper level low can be seen on water vapor imagery spinning over central Alabama this afternoon with a deep plume of moisture feeding northward across our CWA from the Gulf. Most convection so far today has been across our GA zones, the eastern Big Bend and over the coastal waters. PoPs through 00z will be tapered lower end chance (30%) west to likely (60%) east. Then, PoPs for the 00-06z time period will be tapered 20% mainly west of the river and 30-40% to the east. After 06z, PoPs drop to slight chance (20%) for all but the coastal Big bend (30%). Min temps will be around 70 degrees. .Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... The short term period will be marked by a gradual decrease in active convection. Local area located between high to east and low to west. The upper high over Wrn Atlc builds Wwd into Ern FL thru the period. In response, H5 low embedded in trough over Srn AL with deep layer low near MOB Tues begins to retrograde slowly Wwd and open up to reach Srn LA on Wed and the LWR MS Valley Wed night. Locally, expect modest increase in subsidence especially on Wed. At surface, assocd low/trough also shifts Wwd from Srn MS/AL and weakens thru period allowing ridge to sink slowly Swd and build Wwd across Cntrl Gulf of Mex. Locally this favors continued onshore flow, PWATS remaining near 2 inches and a weak pressure pattern yielding mainly aftn/eve seabreeze generated convection. While no strong to severe tstms are expected due to extensive cloud cover and lack of adequate destabilization, some additional heavy rainfall will be possible especially on Tues with focus shifting to Ern counties. Will go with 30-60% SW-NE POPs Tues, 10-50% W-E Tues night, 30-40% Wed and 20-30% Wed night. Once again, high temperatures will vary quite a bit from location to location and be highly dependent on breaks in the cloudiness. Expect highs in the low 90s Tues, low to mid 90s Wed. Lows at night in low 70s except for mid to a few upper 70s near the immediate coast. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... The large scale pattern commences rather amplified with ridging over west, troughing over east and ridge over extreme Wrn Atlc. At surface, ridge from Wrn Atlc to over local region with cold front draped over mid-south. During the rest of the period, Wrn ridge shifts Ewd with downstream trough pivoting and deepening Ewd over local region on Fri before lifting Newd and flattening Sat into Sun. Front inches swd shunting Gulf ridge further Swd allowing for a return to a more WLY flow and normal summer time seabreeze dominated regime. Will go with generally 30-40% aftn/eve POPs thru the period. Expect highs generally in the low to mid 90s, lows low to mid 70s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Tuesday] SCT convection will impact the ABY, VLD and possibly the TLH terminals through this afternoon. There is a lower probability of convection impacting the DHN and ECP terminals during that time. The impacts will be brief periods of MVFR VSBY and IFR CIGS. A brief period of MVFR VSBYs is also possible at VLD due to fog in the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise, VFR will prevail.
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&& .Marine...
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A low pressure system now in the vicinity of our western coastal waters will begin to dissipate tonight. This will result in the return of a weaker pressure pattern more typical for summertime, which should result in generally light winds and low seas for the remainder of the period.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red Flag conditions are not expected this week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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While additional rainfall concerns for any potential minor flooding or rises along some of our area rivers and streams in the Florida Panhandle (such as Mossy Head which could potentially reach minor flood stage today with around 2.5" of additional rainfall) will gradually decrease as the higher amounts begin to lessen and shift eastward next week, some locations in the Florida Panhandle will require some close monitoring today in case another batch of heavy rainfall strikes the region. Otherwise, only minor flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas will be possible once again today.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 70 92 72 93 72 / 30 50 30 40 20 Panama City 75 89 75 89 77 / 20 40 20 30 20 Dothan 71 91 72 93 72 / 20 40 20 30 20 Albany 70 92 72 93 72 / 40 50 30 30 20 Valdosta 69 91 71 95 72 / 40 50 50 40 30 Cross City 70 92 72 93 72 / 40 60 40 30 30 Apalachicola 74 87 74 89 78 / 30 40 20 30 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...BLOCK LONG TERM...BLOCK AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...BLOCK FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...LAMERS

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