Area Forecast Discussion
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560 FXUS62 KTAE 190224 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1024 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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As the upper low approaches the forecast area, the large scale lift has pushed to the north, taking the heavy rainfall with it. With the end of the heavy rain, the Flood Watch has been cancelled. While the widespread rain is ending, the proximity of the upper low will continue to support scattered showers through the overnight hours into Saturday morning. Have trimmed back the PoPs to better reflect the scattered nature of the precip.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Sunday] A low stratus deck will persist overnight at all terminals, with IFR/LIFR cigs likely until Saturday morning. Clouds will likely be slow to lift and dissipate in the late morning and afternoon, with IFR or MVFR cigs likely to persist through much of the day. Winds will gradually become more northerly, generally ranging from 10-20 kt through the rest of the period at all terminals.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds and seas are increasing once again as low pressure deepens and moves northeast into the Florida Big Bend. Expect Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue into Saturday.
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&& .Prev Discussion [313 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... Mid/upper level shortwave trough remains quite progressive and will be exiting the area through the day tomorrow. Expect low clouds and chance of light showers will linger into the morning with clearing spreading from sw-ne across the region through the day with ern/central GA counties the last to clear. In the wake of this system, seasonably cool temperatures and gusty north winds will invade the region. Tricky max T forecast for Saturday with much depending on when and how much clearing develops. Have opted for a blend with highs holding in the lower to mid 60s over central GA and around 70 into parts of sern AL and the FL panhandle/ern Big Bend. Otherwise, expect weather to improve significantly during the holiday weekend with mostly sunny skies and temperatures topping out in the mid 70s inland and lower 70s along the beaches Sunday. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights should range in the lower 50s. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... The next frontal system will be fast moving and shift through Tuesday bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms. Drier air will move in Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure builds in over the area. The Euro has moisture returning Friday and lingering through the end of the extended period, while the GFS is a bit slower with arrival of the rain. Blended the two and went with a slight chance of showers for Friday. Temperatures will be seasonal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s. .Fire Weather... With such wet conditions today, there will be no fire weather issues (i.e. Red flag conditions) through at least this weekend. .Hydrology... Many locations in the region are reporting 2+ inches of rain already and the rain will last until late evening or even longer for the northern portion of the region. Many of the area rivers are in minor flood stage and a few are in moderate flood stage. The Choctawhatchee River is rising quickly and is expected to reach major flood stage near Bruce around midnight. The Flint River and the Ochlockonee River are rising steadily and will begin to fall early next week. The Suwannee River is rising steadily and will do so until at least mid next week. Many locations will get another 1-2 inches of rain today. A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF (Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found on our AHPS page (below). http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 53 66 51 75 53 / 50 20 10 0 0 Panama City 51 70 54 75 59 / 40 10 0 0 0 Dothan 48 68 49 74 53 / 40 30 10 0 0 Albany 50 65 49 74 51 / 70 40 20 0 0 Valdosta 55 65 50 74 52 / 60 40 20 0 0 Cross City 59 70 51 76 53 / 50 20 10 0 10 Apalachicola 56 69 54 72 58 / 40 10 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...EVANS LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

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