Area Forecast Discussion
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648 FXUS62 KTAE 270041 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 841 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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This should be the last night of a widespread stratus deck before we begin to move into a much wetter pattern more typical of summer. This evening`s sounding already shows an increase in moisture with PWATS at 1.33 inches (nearly 0.4 inches greater than 24 hours ago). Through the remainder of the night, most locations should reach the low-mid 60s before the stratus begins to take hold and limits further cooling around 08-10z. Some models are not as vigorous with this deck compared to this morning, but went mostly with persistence considering the synoptic environment has not changed markedly and our easterly flow regime typically correlates with good stratus production. With non-existent forcing, and plenty of dry air above 750mb, precip is not expected through the morning hours.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Sunday]... Widespread low cigs are expected tonight and tomorrow morning at all terminals as easterly flow and abundant low-lev moisture produces a stratus deck that will push west-southwest. ABY/VLD should reach IFR tonight for a few hours beginning at 09z while TLH/DHN reach IFR at 10z and ECP at 11z. The largest uncertainty in the duration of IFR/MVFR conditions. Currently have all terminals in MVFR by 15z but it is not out of the question for them to last longer considering the favorable setup for stratus. All terminals should be VFR by 20z with a small chance for VCSH near VLD/TLH, but confidence was not high enough to warrant mention in the 00z TAFs
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&& .Prev Discussion [310 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... Deep moisture will be in place throughout the period with forecast PW`s in the 2.0" to 2.3" range. As the upper trough approaches, a weak surface low is likely to develop just south of New Orleans on Sunday. This feature will slide eastward over or near our Florida zones by Sunday evening further enhancing showers and thunderstorms across our local region. Some heavy rainfall amounts could occur, especially Sunday and Sunday night over the Florida panhandle. QPF amounts are currently in the 1-3 inch range through the next 48 hours for these ares with the potential of isolated amounts up to 6 inches. There is still a lot of uncertainty with amounts and location and will be monitored closely on the next few model runs. PoPs will be in the likely to categorical range. Max temps will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows around 70. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... The surface low is forecast to continue to track eastward across our Florida zones Monday with a continuing threat for some heavy rainfall, especially along the Gulf coast. As the surface low and upper trough shift to our east Monday night into Tuesday we will see a gradual decrease in deep layer moisture along with significantly lower rain chances through the remainder of the week. Expect temperatures to run near or just above normal. .Marine... Northeasterly flow will continue through tonight before shifting to easterly on Saturday and southeasterly Saturday night into Sunday. Conditions will likely reach exercise caution levels beginning tonight and continuing at least through Saturday for all but Apalachee Bay. Light to occasionally moderate winds can be expected as they swing around from the east to west Saturday night into early next week. .Fire Weather... As we transition to a very wet pattern, there will be no fire weather concerns through at least early next week. .Hydrology... General rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely across the forecast area through Monday, except 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts along the panhandle coast. These amounts are not expected to result in any river flooding due to low flows from the recent dry summer. However, isolated instances of flash flooding cannot yet be ruled out for Sunday, mainly along the panhandle coast. It is too soon to consider any watches, but this trend will have to be monitored.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 69 86 72 86 71 / 10 50 50 70 60 Panama City 71 84 74 85 74 / 10 60 70 80 60 Dothan 65 85 70 84 69 / 10 40 60 80 60 Albany 66 85 70 85 69 / 10 40 40 70 60 Valdosta 68 86 70 86 70 / 10 50 30 60 50 Cross City 71 86 71 87 70 / 30 60 40 60 50 Apalachicola 72 84 75 84 75 / 20 60 70 80 60
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...GODSEY/DOBBS MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...DVD

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