Area Forecast Discussion
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169 FXUS62 KTAE 230150 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 850 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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AT 8 PM EST, the regional surface analysis showed a slow-moving cold front roughly from Athens, GA to Macon and southwestward to near New Orleans. Bands of SW-NE oriented showers were occurring near the boundary. The cold front will reach the Tallahassee area by around daybreak, as it transitions into an anafront (with most of the rain behind the cold front). The bulk of the cold air will remain north of our region tonight, so lows will be quite warm for this time of the year (generally in the 50s). .Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... Although it will still be relatively mild across the CWA on Monday with high temps ranging from the mid 50s far to the NW to the middle 70s over the SE FL Big Bend, plenty of moisture and rainfall will be coming down from the north as well with PoPs ranging from the 60s over of AL and GA to the 20s and 30s over eastern FL. As the cold front sinks further to the south, temps and PoPs should become more uniform across the region with both temps and PoP widespread in the 40s and 50s .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... In this rather prolonged stretch of unsettled weather across the tri-state area, the jackpot period for heavy and widespread rain appears to be Wednesday night an Thursday, where many areas could receive up to 2 inches of rain alone on those days.
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&& .Aviation...
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[through 00Z Tuesday] Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are expected overnight, especially in areas along and ahead of a slow moving cold front. The highest chance of dense fog will be at KTLH, ECP and VLD. Occasional light rain is likely at KDHN & KABY. The rain and fog will taper off from NW to SE Monday morning behind the cold front, but low cigs will likely persist well into Monday afternoon. Winds will shift from SW to NW behind the front.
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&& .Marine... Winds and seas will be generally light to moderate across the coastal waters for the next several days with seas typically on the higher side than winds due to the rather long southerly fetch. This will make boating in small craft a bit more hazardous than usual given the reported seas, while surfers will enjoy the larger waves and lighter winds. && .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. Expect rain to be around through mid week. && .Hydrology... Several rounds of rainfall are possible this week with the best chance for an areawide moderate to possibly heavy rainfall event expected on Wednesday. Total rainfall is generally expected to be in the 2-3 inch range with isolated higher totals possible. This will cause rises on area rivers and may bring a few of our sites back up to action stage. At this time, flooding is not expected, although if widespread rainfall amounts were to increase above 3 inches, then the Kinchafoonee Creek as well as the Ochlockonee and Aucilla Rivers could come close to minor flood stage. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 56 69 48 54 46 / 20 30 50 40 50 Panama City 58 64 47 53 47 / 20 40 40 40 50 Dothan 50 58 40 50 41 / 50 50 50 40 40 Albany 53 60 41 49 41 / 50 60 50 40 30 Valdosta 56 68 45 50 45 / 20 40 50 40 40 Cross City 56 74 51 59 49 / 10 20 40 40 50 Apalachicola 59 68 51 56 50 / 10 30 40 40 50 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY/FOURNIER SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...DVD/MOORE

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