Area Forecast Discussion
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169
FXUS62 KTAE 230150
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
850 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

AT 8 PM EST, the regional surface analysis showed a slow-moving
cold front roughly from Athens, GA to Macon and southwestward to
near New Orleans. Bands of SW-NE oriented showers were occurring
near the boundary. The cold front will reach the Tallahassee area
by around daybreak, as it transitions into an anafront (with most
of the rain behind the cold front). The bulk of the cold air will
remain north of our region tonight, so lows will be quite warm for
this time of the year (generally in the 50s).

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Although it will still be relatively mild across the CWA on
Monday with high temps ranging from the mid 50s far to the NW to the
middle 70s over the SE FL Big Bend, plenty of moisture and rainfall
will be coming down from the north as well with PoPs ranging from
the 60s over of AL and GA to the 20s and 30s over eastern FL. As
the cold front sinks further to the south, temps and PoPs should
become more uniform across the region with both temps and PoP
widespread in the 40s and 50s

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

In this rather prolonged stretch of unsettled weather across the
tri-state area, the jackpot period for heavy and widespread rain
appears to be Wednesday night an Thursday, where many areas could
receive up to 2 inches of rain alone on those days.

&&

.Aviation...

[through 00Z Tuesday] Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are
expected overnight, especially in areas along and ahead of a slow
moving cold front. The highest chance of dense fog will be at
KTLH, ECP and VLD. Occasional light rain is likely at KDHN &
KABY. The rain and fog will taper off from NW to SE Monday morning
behind the cold front, but low cigs will likely persist well into
Monday afternoon. Winds will shift from SW to NW behind the front.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas will be generally light to moderate across the
coastal waters for the next several days with seas typically on the
higher side than winds due to the rather long southerly fetch. This
will make boating in small craft a bit more hazardous than usual
given the reported seas, while surfers will enjoy the larger waves
and lighter winds.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. Expect rain to be around through mid week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Several rounds of rainfall are possible this week with the best
chance for an areawide moderate to possibly heavy rainfall event
expected on Wednesday. Total rainfall is generally expected to be in
the 2-3 inch range with isolated higher totals possible. This will
cause rises on area rivers and may bring a few of our sites back up
to action stage. At this time, flooding is not expected, although if
widespread rainfall amounts were to increase above 3 inches, then
the Kinchafoonee Creek as well as the Ochlockonee and Aucilla Rivers
could come close to minor flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   56  69  48  54  46 /  20  30  50  40  50
Panama City   58  64  47  53  47 /  20  40  40  40  50
Dothan        50  58  40  50  41 /  50  50  50  40  40
Albany        53  60  41  49  41 /  50  60  50  40  30
Valdosta      56  68  45  50  45 /  20  40  50  40  40
Cross City    56  74  51  59  49 /  10  20  40  40  50
Apalachicola  59  68  51  56  50 /  10  30  40  40  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY/FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...DVD/MOORE




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