Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 022041
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
341 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
As a mid-upper level shortwave trof pushes off the East coast, cloud
cover and rain chances will increase through the night, particularly
in southeast Alabama and in the Florida Panhandle. Rain chances were
kept low (20-30%) and after midnight. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 40s to mid 50s, with temperatures warmer to the west where
cloud cover will be higher. Areas of fog will likely develop
overnight and stay through the early morning hours as low level
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Tuesday through Wednesday the upper pattern will shift from a
large, broad trough covering much of the country, to a more
amplified pattern. By Wednesday, the U.S. will be split more
east/west with a strong trough to the west and it`s counterpart to
At the surface, the pattern both Tuesday and Wednesday can be very
generally defined by an area of high pressure building in behind a
strengthen/departing low in the western Atlantic, and a large area
of low pressure over the Plains and Midwest. This results in a
prolonged period of southerly flow locally. Cold Gulf waters from
Panama City, east along the coast all the way to near Tampa will
essentially create a dome of cooler air along the immediate
coastline that the southerly flow will lift up and over. This lift
will be most pronounced along the Panhandle, east of Apalachicola
where there exists a sharper gradient between the warmer Gulf
waters and the cooler, shallower nearshore waters. By Tuesday
morning, areas west of Apalachicola will have had time to saturate
and it is then that we expect widespread shower activity to
develop. The showers will spread inland through the day and
gradually diminish overnight. Most shower activity will likely
remain west of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers leaving
areas to the east dry and warm (in the low to mid 70s). By
Wednesday, the prolonged southerly flow and building heights
will have eaten away at the cool dome, and for the most part cut
off the low-level lift and put an end to any shower activity.
Though, the building ridge will allow afternoon highs on Wednesday
to climb to well above average, possibly 80 degrees in some spots.
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
The aforementioned west/east trough/ridge pattern will continue
through most of the extended range. The strong ridge will hold
enough of a grip locally to allow for several days of near 80
degree temperatures. The trough will make only gradual eastward
progress after multiple impulses eat away at the ridge. At the
surface, between the trough and ridge a quasi-stationary front
will inch closer to the region. This will be a focus for showers
and isolated thunderstorms with each passing impulse. Expect the
area of showers to remain rather broad, possibly spreading into
our northwest forecast area. Thus, through the weekend, have kept a
northwest to southeast PoP gradient with essentially no rain
expected southeast of a line from Tifton to Apalachicola.
.AVIATION [Beginning 20Z Monday]...
Rising motion, apparently associated with the nose of a mid/upper
level jet moving across TX/LA, continues to shift a batch of mid
level clouds across the eastern FL Panhandle and into the FL big
bend. Regardless, VFR conditions and generally light west winds
will prevail into tonight. Conditions will deteriorate late
tonight and through early afternoon Tue as MVFR cig/vsby become
prevalent at all sites. Areas of IFR may also develop as fog
develops around daybreak.
Southerly, just barely sub-headline level winds will prevail for
the next several days. The strongest winds will likely remain west
of Apalachicola and remain steady around 15 knots. Flow will
temporarily veer northerly over the weekend with a passing trough,
though it will rather quickly return to southerly on Sunday. Sea-
fog will be a possibility near the coast Tuesday night through
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. No red
flag conditions are anticipated in the next several days.
Rainfall totals early in the week will be minimal and should not
impact river stages.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 52 73 60 77 62 / 10 30 20 10 10
Panama City 59 70 65 75 67 / 20 70 20 10 20
Dothan 53 69 58 75 64 / 30 70 30 10 30
Albany 50 70 57 76 62 / 10 50 30 10 20
Valdosta 48 72 58 76 60 / 10 20 10 10 0
Cross City 50 75 60 79 58 / 10 10 10 0 0
Apalachicola 58 72 65 73 66 / 10 40 10 10 10