Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 080740
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
With the deep upper low moving well into the Western Atlantic and
another trough digging into the 4-corners region, heights will
rise along the Gulf Coast today between these two systems. This
will result in mostly sunny skies and a substantial warm-up from
yesterday`s cloudy and cool weather. Expect high temperatures to
rise to the lower 70s this afternoon everywhere except along the
immediate coast, where temperatures will be a few degrees cooler.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
High pressure centered over the region tonight will move
southeastward down the Florida Peninsula by Sunday afternoon as a
weak disturbance moves through the Southern Appalachians. Cloud
cover will be on the increase on Sunday, but any rain chances
appear remote. By Sunday night, high pressure builds back over the
region at the surface and aloft. Temperatures will continue the
warming trend with highs on Sunday generally in the mid 70s and in
the upper 70s on Monday. Temperatures during the day will be
noticeably cooler near the coast, generally in the upper 60s to
lower 70s each afternoon.
.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Weak ridging aloft will keep temperatures around normal to start
the week, before clouds and rain chances steadily increase into
the middle part of the week. This will occur as a southern stream
impulse ejects across the Gulf and into the area late Tuesday.
Depending on how much phasing occurs with the northern stream,
this system could bring a quick shot of showers and tstms or
perhaps a lingering rain event Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Pattern could favor a few stronger storms as well, although
greater potential for severe tstms should remain over the FL
Peninsula. Regardless of the details, models are consistent in
another round of showers and thunderstorms in the middle of the
week, followed by unseasonably cold air in the wake of yet another
strong cold front Thursday and Friday.
.Aviation...[Through 06Z Sunday]...
Outside of brief MVFR visibility this morning at KABY and KVLD,
expect VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast period,
along with light winds.
After winds decrease this morning, expect tranquil conditions to
continue through at least Tuesday morning. Winds will be on the
increase Tuesday night ahead of the next storm system, with
cautionary conditions possible by Wednesday evening.
While the airmass will be warmer and drier through the weekend,
humidity values are forecast to remain above critical levels. No
fire weather concerns.
Rainfall from this week has resulted in elevated flows across
several rivers, with a few observation points reaching action
stage. None of the forecast points are forecast to reach flood
stage at this time. The next storm system will move into the
region on Tuesday evening, bringing the potential for an
additional 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall. This could result in
additional rises to near minor flood stage for a few locations,
particularly across the Florida Panhandle and into the Western
Florida Big Bend.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 71 45 75 51 77 / 0 0 10 10 10
Panama City 68 51 71 55 72 / 0 0 10 10 10
Dothan 71 50 73 53 76 / 0 0 10 10 10
Albany 71 47 75 51 77 / 0 0 10 10 10
Valdosta 70 44 74 51 77 / 0 0 10 10 10
Cross City 72 43 75 48 76 / 0 0 10 10 10
Apalachicola 65 48 69 52 71 / 0 0 10 10 10