Area Forecast Discussion
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027 FXUS62 KTAE 191358 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 958 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The large scale split flow pattern this morning remains highlighted in Srn stream by nearly stacked system over SE GA/NE FL. This includes well defined mid/upper cutoff low with drier sinking air wrapping around it. At surface...1011mb occluding low with diffuse warm front Ewd thru coastal GA. All this reflected in local obs with NLY flow on backside and onshore flow ahead. Radar and area obs shows that with mid/upper drying... decreasing coverage/intensity recent hours and although rain has largely ended except for NE tier of GA counties...proximity of surface low continues to favor light drizzle (mainly Ern counties) and low stratus everywhere. Through sundown...Mid/upper low should drift Ewd to Atlc seaboard while surface low drifts ENE to along NE FL/SE GA coast. RAP13 soundings reflect this with lower level flow shifting to the NE favoring low stratus while flow above becomes Nwd with ample dry air. However with proximity of surface low...wrap around drizzle and low clouds may still be a factor especially across NE tier counties as reflected in area PWATS still hovering near 1 inch at TLH and even DHN at 00Z. Also 24hr dew point comparison show little change so any low level drying will be slow. There is a small chance of thunderstorms N/E of surface low; namely in SE Big Bend or Ern counties of S/Cntrl GA due to cold air and steep lapse rates aloft seen on 12z TAE sounding. The chances increase with any breaks in the overcast and this may even produce a few strong storms with hail and gusty winds the primary concern. The threat should end by sundown as low moves further ENE. The low clouds and drizzle on back side of low should keep temperatures well below average (mid 60s, as opposed to climo highs in the lower 80s).
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Sunday]...Widespread IFR cigs will continue through this morning. Patchy -DZ and even isolated SHRA are also possible especially at VLD/ABY. Cigs may finally reach low-end MVFR levels this at mainly at KECP and KDHN. It`s unlikely that conditions will get much better than this, even this evening. Scattered SHRA and (even isolated TSRA near KVLD) will diminish by sunset. Surface winds will be N around 10 KT. IFR to LIFR cigs are likely again for much of tonight as well
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&& .Marine...
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Latest obs indicate that winds have dropped below advisory levels and will drop SCA replacing it with SCEC headline. Winds and seas should continue to gradually drop below headline criteria tonight with mostly light winds and low seas expected at least for the first half of next week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Most of the area saw rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with higher amounts of 4 to 5.5 inches in Southeast Alabama and Walton and Holmes counties in Florida. These rainfall amounts in additional to rainfall from earlier in the week have led to a rise on rivers with many area rivers in flood stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points along the following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood stage: St. Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers. The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found on our AHPS page (below). http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Prev Discussion [639 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... The local area will still be experiencing some impact of the slowly departing Mid/Upper level shortwave trough tonight through Sunday. For tonight, we could see a few lingering showers mainly along and east of Albany to Cross City. Otherwise, we now believe that it will be mostly cloudy across the region through the remainder of the weekend due to wrap around moisture associated with this feature. Although it will be warmer Sunday, the clouds and offshore flow will keep temps below seasonal levels. Look for deep layer ridging, clearing skies and seasonal temps to start the work week. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... The next frontal system will be fast moving and shift through Tuesday bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms. Drier air will move in Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure builds in over the area. The Euro has moisture returning Friday and lingering through the end of the extended period, while the GFS is a bit slower with arrival of the rain. Blended the two and went with a slight chance of showers for Friday. Temperatures will be seasonal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s. .Fire Weather... Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least Tuesday.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 66 52 73 52 80 / 30 10 0 0 0 Panama City 67 53 74 57 78 / 20 10 0 0 0 Dothan 67 50 74 54 79 / 20 10 0 0 0 Albany 65 51 73 51 79 / 40 20 0 0 0 Valdosta 66 52 72 51 81 / 40 30 0 0 0 Cross City 71 53 76 52 80 / 30 20 0 0 0 Apalachicola 65 54 72 56 75 / 20 10 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...BLOCK SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...BLOCK MARINE...BLOCK FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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