Area Forecast Discussion
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892 FXUS62 KTAE 160001 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 801 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A clear and cool night is in store with surface high pressure building into the area. Overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 50 are expected for most areas with slightly milder conditions along the coast.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Near calm winds tonight will become west-northwest around 10 knots during the mid to late morning hours on Thursday.
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&& .Prev Discussion [347 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]... Deep cut-off low over the Ohio Valley will slowly migrate northeastward through Thursday keeping deep northwesterly flow in place across the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over the western Gulf today will progress eastward through Friday bringing a more westerly wind flow. With a very dry airmass in place, no precip is expected. Temperatures will be close to normal with highs in the upper 70s for Thursday and lower 80s for Friday. Lows around 50 Thursday night and lower 50s Friday night. .Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]... A deep trough will remain over eastern CONUS bringing strong northwesterly flow aloft. At the sfc, no significant features are expected to develop. This means drier cooler air through the extended period with no rain expected. A low is expected to develop over the Gulf and linger there for several days. The coastal waters could see some cloud cover from this low, but rain is unlikely. Highs will hold steady in the upper 70s/low 80s, which is near average for this time of year. Lows, will be slightly below normal, in the lower to middle 50s. .Marine... West-northwest flow near exercise caution levels will continue today as high pressure builds over the western Gulf. Conditions will improve tonight and Thursday with light winds and minimal seas continuing through the weekend. Exercise caution conditions may briefly occur Thursday afternoon. .Fire Weather... Despite a drier air mass across the region through the weekend, RH values are not expected to fall to critical levels. RH values on Friday may approach red flag thresholds in the western part of our area, but winds should have decreased sufficiently such that red flag conditions are not expected. .Hydrology... While we did get a lot of rain yesterday, the rivers were already very low. There are no flooding concerns at this time.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 50 79 48 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 59 78 56 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dothan 49 77 49 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 10 Albany 50 77 49 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 50 77 50 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 53 79 50 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 58 77 55 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT AVIATION...DVD MARINE...MCDERMOTT FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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