Area Forecast Discussion
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763 FXUS62 KTAE 180058 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 858 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Afternoon thunderstorms have died down after sunset, however, new storms are firing up offshore and moving into Taylor county. Have bumped up PoPs offshore to account for this and decreased PoPs in Georgia and Alabama. The rest of the forecast is on track with only minor tweaks needed. Lows will be in the mid 70s tonight.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Tuesday] Outside of VLD, which may see some brief Vis reductions in some light rain early this evening, the remainder of the terminals should be free from convection through the rest of tonight. Late tonight and early Monday morning, however, expect MVFR Vis to develop at most of the terminals, with another round of IFR conditions at VLD. After this burns off, however, expect sct showers and storms to develop in the afternoon sea breeze once again, although the coverage may not be quite as widespread as it was today. Therefore, just went with VCTS groups for TLH, DHN, and VLD, but these may need to be upgraded on later packages.
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&& .Prev Discussion [322 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... High pressure in place will keep deep level westerly flow through the period with very little if any southerly component. This means there won`t be much moisture transport and PWATs will stay in the normal range for this time of year. Given these near normal moisture values and the 1000-700mb flow being west at over 10 knots, going close to climo values for regime 5 sea-breeze Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will also be near normal for this time of year with highs Monday and Tuesday in the low to mid 90s and lows will be in the low to mid 70s. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... As the long term period begins Wednesday, high pressure will shift northward/inland from the Gulf, shifting the winds from westerly to northwesterly and then variable. This will mean even less moisture transport, keeping PoPs slightly below climo for this time of year. Temperatures will be warmer than normal, with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s and lows only dipping into the mid 70s. .Marine... With high pressure over the northern Gulf, winds will generally be from the west-southwest at 10 knots or less, with surges along the coastline to about 15 knots in the evenings. Waves will be 2 feet or less through the period. .Fire Weather... Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. .Hydrology... Rainfall totals through Tuesday are expected to range from .25 to .50 inches. With all area rivers below action stage, no flooding is expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 75 94 76 95 75 / 10 50 10 40 20 Panama City 79 90 79 91 78 / 20 40 20 30 10 Dothan 74 95 74 93 74 / 10 40 20 40 20 Albany 74 94 74 94 75 / 10 30 20 30 20 Valdosta 73 94 75 94 74 / 10 40 20 40 20 Cross City 74 92 74 93 74 / 30 30 10 30 10 Apalachicola 78 90 78 91 79 / 20 30 20 20 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...WESTON SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...MOORE FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN

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