Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 072000
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2013
.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
Surface cold front continues to slowly push sewd across the area,
located from north of VLD to near TLH and AAF at 18z. Expect this
boundary will continue sagging southeast across the remainder of the
area through the early evening before stalling and becoming more
diffuse Sunday. This will occur as light winds become more easterly
and then southerly Sunday morning, allowing influx of modified air
from the Gulf to move back into the area. Will maintain chance/slgt
chance of light showers across all but the eastern Bend counties,
with more likely area to see any measurable precipitation into
central GA. Primary concern overnight will once again be from fog.
Areas of fog should develop after dark and could become quite dense
again from south central GA and cross the FL Bend region. Lows will
remain mild for this time of year ranging from around 50f in parts
of sern AL to the lower 60s around the FL Bend.
.SHORT TERM [Sunday through Monday Night]...
As shortwave impulses continue to propagate through the mid and upper
level trof over eastern Canada, we will stay under the right entrance
region of the mid and upper level jets. The lack of eastward
progression of the jet will help stall out the surface cold front
tonight and eventually help it retrograde back to the northwest
tomorrow. This will mean continued unseasonably warm temperatures,
heavy cloud cover, foggy mornings, and higher chances of rain in
our southeastern Alabama counties than elsewhere. Highs will be in
the upper 70s and low 80s and lows will be in the upper 50s to low
60s with the coolest temperatures in southeast Alabama.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
We should finally start to see a break in the disturbed pattern
beginning in the long term as the upper level trof finally makes some
eastward progress and pushes the front across our area Tuesday
through Tuesday night. Higher pressure will build eastward behind
it, allowing us to get some cooler air. Highs will be in the upper
50s to mid 60s and lows will generally be in the 40s after the
frontal passage. The GFS is suggesting that later next week, a warm
front may move inland from the Gulf, giving us about a 30% chance of
rain once again heading into the weekend.
[Through 18 UTC Sunday] Low cigs will maintain MVFR and IFR/LIFR
conditions through much of the forecast period as a cold front
meanders and then stalls just east of the area. Areas of fog can
once again be expected after dark, especially at KTLH and KVLD. Any
VFR around the region should be fairly brief-lived into Sunday
The cold front that moved into the coastal waters today will stall
over the area this evening. Winds should generally remain below 15
knots with scattered light showers possible through Monday. Winds
will shift to south to southeast before the arrival of the next
cold front Tuesday. The second cold front will likely bring at
least cautionary winds of 15 to 20 knots, and possibly some
advisory conditions, especially offshore.
Fire weather concerns will remain minimal with high RH and abundant
Generally light rain fall amounts will have little impact on area
rivers through the forecast period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 61 79 60 78 63 / 20 10 20 20 30
Panama City 58 75 65 76 64 / 20 10 20 30 30
Dothan 53 74 63 77 59 / 30 30 30 40 50
Albany 56 76 61 78 61 / 30 30 30 40 40
Valdosta 61 79 61 80 63 / 20 10 20 20 30
Cross City 62 81 59 80 63 / 10 10 20 10 20
Apalachicola 63 73 64 74 66 / 10 10 20 20 30
Near Term/Aviation/Fire Weather/Hydrology...Evans
Short Term/Long Term/Marine...Moore