Area Forecast Discussion
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494 FXUS62 KTAE 160725 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 325 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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A broad long wave trough will remain in place across much of North America today with our area transitioning to southwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift northeastward to New England, but will continue to ridge southward to the Gulf Coast. After a chilly start this morning, temps will rebound quickly under mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 60s in most areas with some lower 70s expected across southern portions of the FL Big Bend. .Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... The short range period begins with a broad full CONUS trough aloft, with surface high pressure wedging down the eastern third of the country into the Southeast. A northern stream +PV anomaly embedded within the mean trough will drive a strong surface low into the Great Lakes region on Thursday and subsequently force the east coast ridge further east veering low-level flow locally from the east/southeast. Easterly surface flow will advect a thermal trough across the FL Peninsula, into the eastern Gulf creating a weak east to west temperature gradient as the warmer temperatures force westward the cooler Gulf moderated temperatures from Tuesday`s cold front. This will set up weak isentropic showers across the northeast Gulf, and areas south of interstate 10 in north Florida. Expect shower coverage to remain light and scattered in nature as upslope vector orientation and magnitude remain unimpressive. Thursday night, Gulf cyclogenesis will gradually evolve as a weak southern stream +PV anomaly merges with the southern extension of the northern stream anomaly over the northwest Gulf. This entire system will move eastward through the night, with a surface trough/low somewhere in the northeast Gulf by morning Friday. There is a considerable amount of disagreement between pretty much all of the guidance as to how Friday will pan out. The ECMWF cuts off the upper anomaly, separating it from the more progressive northern stream flow and slowing the entire system. The GFS however, keeps at least some connection with the northern stream and thus as a quicker frontal system passage, drying things out by Friday night. There seems to be more guidance supporting the slower solution, though the exact position of the surface low remains unagreed-upon. This will also mean the potential for a medium duration (24-36 hour) heavy rain event, especially across the Big Bend and south-central Georgia. Rain may gradually let up through the day Saturday, but will most likely not come to an end completely until Sunday morning should the slower solution present itself. This will only aggravate ongoing river flooding and could present a risk for more significant flooding. Stay tuned as we hope for a little better model consensus. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... On Monday, zonal flow brings another weak system north of our CWA but it appears there will only be a slight chance of rain with this system.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Thursday] VFR conditions will persist through the period. NNW winds will gradually veer to the northeast overnight and remain sustained at 6-10 kt. ENE winds will prevail after about 14z. Wind gusts will not be as high as on Tuesday.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds and seas will remain at advisory levels through mid- afternoon and have thus extended the advisory a few hours in time. Expect modest easterly winds to at least keep conditions at cautionary levels through Thursday, before advisory conditions return ahead of a low pressure system in the Gulf Friday, possibly lasting through Saturday. Thereafter, winds and seas will eventually fall to below headline conditions.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Much drier air has arrived in the area. This combined with a second day of gusty winds will allow fuels to continue to dry out. However, the air mass will not be dry enough to be concerned about red flag criteria, especially considering fuel moisture. RH will increase quickly after today with another round of wetting rain expected on Friday.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Heavy rains across the FL Panhandle this morning resulted in sharp rises on the Chipola River where the Altha gage is cresting about a foot above moderate flood stage. The river will fall pretty quickly too and is forecast to drop below flood stage tonight. The St. Marks River at Newport is now forecast to reach moderate flood stage tonight and remain there into Saturday evening. Only minor rises occurred on the Choctawhatchee, Apalachicola and Ochlockonee Rivers. However, it will not be several days before Bruce, Blountstown and Havana drop below flood stage. Flood waters from the Withlacoochee and Santa Fe rivers will eventually work through the Suwannee River which will begin to see stages rise above flood stage early next week. The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found on our AHPS page (below). http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 70 48 73 60 72 / 0 10 30 50 70 Panama City 68 52 71 60 72 / 0 10 30 50 70 Dothan 66 46 71 56 72 / 0 0 20 40 60 Albany 67 45 71 56 71 / 0 0 20 40 60 Valdosta 68 49 72 60 72 / 0 10 20 40 70 Cross City 72 54 76 62 73 / 0 20 30 50 80 Apalachicola 68 53 71 62 71 / 0 20 30 50 70
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...LAMERS/WALSH AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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