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492 FXUS62 KTAE 171614 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1214 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Shower and thunderstorms have quickly been developing this morning across Southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Morning observational data show the drier airmass that was in place across the region has moistened considerably with precipitable water values now above 1.9 inches. While instability is not overly impressive today (2500-3000 J/KG SBCAPE), conditions are still conducive for numerous showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours. Have increased PoPs to 60 percent across much of the region for this afternoon.
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&& .Prev Discussion [635 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... Monday will feature a blend of early morning offshore convection, followed by the seabreeze front generating storms over land during the afternoon. In the southwesterly flow regime, depending upon how much offshore convection moves inland early on, it could disrupt a well defined seabreeze front. This would mean that we may receive most of our storms early in the day rather than later. Regardless of exactly how this plays out, the best coverage of storms will be across north Florida and extreme southwest Georgia. Monday night into Tuesday morning as shortwave will brush our northern Georgia and Alabama counties and provide a chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight. The shortwave will elongate over the region on Tuesday and provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms. Expect a widespread scattering of storms on Tuesday, not related to the seabreeze. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... Stacked high pressure through the period will allow the sea-breeze circulation will once again become the main driving force for our local weather. With a drier than normal airmass in place, chances will be somewhat lower than climo and temperatures will be slightly warmer than climo. Highs will be in the mid 90s, low 90s along the immediate coast, and lows will be in the mid 70s, upper 70s along the immediate coast. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Monday] After a brief period of MVFR/IFR vis this morning, Generally VFR conditions are excepted. Scattered SHRA/TSRA were developing across the FL Panhandle, and these will spread inland. KECP has the highest chance of SHRA/TSRA this morning, and KTLH and KDHN in the afternoon. Elsewhere we expect the storms to be more isolated. Winds across the region will be SW around 10 KT by late morning, except briefly stronger and gusty in TSRA. .Marine... Modest southwesterly flow will near cautionary levels at times over the next couple of days. This will be especially true in the afternoon near the coast. By Wednesday, the surface ridge should move closer to our waters, yielding calming winds. Expect widespread morning showers and thunderstorms for at least the next few mornings. .Fire Weather... Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. .Hydrology... Significant rainfall is not expected over the next several days and all area rivers should remain below action stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 92 75 93 75 95 / 60 20 60 10 40 Panama City 89 79 90 79 90 / 60 20 50 20 30 Dothan 93 75 94 75 93 / 60 40 50 20 40 Albany 93 75 94 76 94 / 50 40 40 20 40 Valdosta 94 73 94 74 95 / 50 20 60 10 40 Cross City 93 74 92 74 93 / 40 20 50 20 20 Apalachicola 89 79 90 80 90 / 60 30 40 20 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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