Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 180058
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
858 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Afternoon thunderstorms have died down after sunset, however, new
storms are firing up offshore and moving into Taylor county. Have
bumped up PoPs offshore to account for this and decreased PoPs in
Georgia and Alabama. The rest of the forecast is on track with
only minor tweaks needed. Lows will be in the mid 70s tonight.
[Through 00Z Tuesday] Outside of VLD, which may see some brief Vis
reductions in some light rain early this evening, the remainder of
the terminals should be free from convection through the rest of
tonight. Late tonight and early Monday morning, however, expect
MVFR Vis to develop at most of the terminals, with another round
of IFR conditions at VLD. After this burns off, however, expect
sct showers and storms to develop in the afternoon sea breeze once
again, although the coverage may not be quite as widespread as it
was today. Therefore, just went with VCTS groups for TLH, DHN, and
VLD, but these may need to be upgraded on later packages.
.Prev Discussion [322 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
High pressure in place will keep deep level westerly flow through
the period with very little if any southerly component. This means
there won`t be much moisture transport and PWATs will stay in the
normal range for this time of year. Given these near normal moisture
values and the 1000-700mb flow being west at over 10 knots, going
close to climo values for regime 5 sea-breeze Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures will also be near normal for this time of year with
highs Monday and Tuesday in the low to mid 90s and lows will be in
the low to mid 70s.
.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
As the long term period begins Wednesday, high pressure will shift
northward/inland from the Gulf, shifting the winds from westerly to
northwesterly and then variable. This will mean even less moisture
transport, keeping PoPs slightly below climo for this time of year.
Temperatures will be warmer than normal, with highs reaching the mid
to upper 90s and lows only dipping into the mid 70s.
With high pressure over the northern Gulf, winds will generally
be from the west-southwest at 10 knots or less, with surges along
the coastline to about 15 knots in the evenings. Waves will be 2
feet or less through the period.
Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
Rainfall totals through Tuesday are expected to range from .25 to .50
inches. With all area rivers below action stage, no flooding is
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 75 94 76 95 75 / 10 50 10 40 20
Panama City 79 90 79 91 78 / 20 40 20 30 10
Dothan 74 95 74 93 74 / 10 40 20 40 20
Albany 74 94 74 94 75 / 10 30 20 30 20
Valdosta 73 94 75 94 74 / 10 40 20 40 20
Cross City 74 92 74 93 74 / 30 30 10 30 10
Apalachicola 78 90 78 91 79 / 20 30 20 20 10