Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 232002

302 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2014

...Additional Severe Weather Expected Tonight into Wednesday with
an Increased Threat for Flooding...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Both the synoptic and the offshore warm fronts have progressed
northward slowly today, with the offshore warm front now just
offshore of the Florida coastline. Widespread coverage of showers
and thunderstorms has persisted through the day. Event total
rainfall values so far are 1-2" widespread, with a swath of 2.5-5"
from AAF to FZG. As storms continue to drop heavy amounts of
rainfall over the area, flash flooding will continue to be a
concern. Local hi-res guidance indicates another 3-4" is likely
across the area, with isolated higher totals in excess of 6"

Lower CAPE and higher CIN is in place over the area than initially
expected, suppressing some of the severe potential over land today.
However, with 0-1km shear around 20 kt and 0-6km shear around 50 kt,
we`ve still managed to get a few severe thunderstorms. As the
secondary warm front near the coast moves inland, the potential for
isolated tornadoes will increase in supercells that develop. As the
main squall line heads eastward into our area overnight, the chance
for wind damage will increase.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The squall line should be somewhere over our FL Panhandle and far
southwest GA zones at the start of the period (12Z) and progress
steadily eastward during the day. The main band of thunderstorms
will not clear the southeast FL Big Bend zones until the afternoon
hours with the front itself not crossing the Suwannee River until
close to 00Z Thursday. The primary threat for severe will be
damaging winds in the main convective pre-frontal band. Much drier
and cooler air will arrive behind the cold front. Daytime highs on
Christmas Day will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. We still do
not expect any freezing temperatures Christmas night, but most
inland areas will dip into the mid 30s and some spots will see
some frost.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
The unsettled pattern will continue, typical of what we see during
El Nino years with a dominant subtropical jet. After one more dry
day on Friday, the next frontal system will be crossing the
Mississippi Valley. There is still a fair amount of disagreement
among the mid-range models in terms of how this system will evolve
as it moves east, although the new 12Z Euro is a bit closer to the
GFS than its predecessor. Rain chances will increase over the
weekend with a cold frontal passage expected on Monday or Monday
night. A moderating trend in temperatures is also forecast from
Friday through the weekend.


[Through 18Z Wednesday] IFR-LIFR ceilings and visibilities will
prevail (with brief occasional improvements to MVFR) with
widespread showers and thunderstorms at all terminals throughout
the period.


Low pressure off the Texas coast will move northeast along a cold
front, tightening the gradient between this feature and retreating
high pressure. Cautionary winds will increase to advisory levels
overnight. Strong to severe storms will remain possible across the
waters, especially in a convective band that is forecast to
develop ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will then shift
to the west behind the cold front on Wednesday, eventually veering
to the northwest and dropping below headline criteria by Thursday
morning. Seas will steadily increase through Wednesday morning,
peaking at 11 feet well offshore before a diminishing trend
commences. Offshore winds will veer to the east from Thursday
night through Saturday, finally becoming onshore ahead of our
next frontal system on Sunday.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days.


Combination of radar estimates and several gage reports indicate
that through 2 pm ET today between 2 to 4 inches of rain had fallen
across South Central Georgia and into western portions of the
Florida Big Bend with some spots in South Central Georgia receiving
over 5 inches of rain. Soils are progressively becoming saturated
from today`s rainfall across Southern Georgia and the Florida Big
Bend and additional rains will only increase the already growing
flood threat for tonight and Wednesday.

Radar trends suggest that rainfall rates will gradually lessen over
the next couple of hours, limiting any immediate flash flood threat.
However, later tonight as the squall line across Southern Louisiana
approaches the region, widespread heavy rainfall is expected again.
As a result, flash flooding will be likely even with the progressive
nature of the squall line given near saturated conditions.

Rivers across the area continue to rise, with some sharp increases
already noted across the upper portions of the Ochlockonee and
Little River (GA) basins. At least minor flooding in these basins
is expected, with the potential for moderate flooding from
Thomasville through Concord. Some increase is anticipated within the
Flint River system, though the bulk of the heaviest rain today has
occurred just east of the basin and overnight rain shouldn`t be
enough to push any of the points below Albany to flood stage.

Further west, with the bulk of the heaviest rainfall so far
occurring either in the lower portions or outside the Chipola and
Choctawhatchee River basins, respectively, only rises to action
stage are likely with a chance of reaching minor flood stage in the
lower Choctawhatchee and in the Chipola at Altha.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  71  42  61  36 / 100  90  30  10  10
Panama City   67  69  44  60  43 / 100  80  20  10  10
Dothan        65  68  39  59  38 / 100  80  20   0  10
Albany        66  70  41  60  35 / 100  90  20  10  10
Valdosta      66  72  46  61  36 / 100  90  30  10  10
Cross City    68  74  49  64  35 /  80  90  40  10  10
Apalachicola  68  71  44  59  42 / 100  90  30  10  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-
     Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-
     Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South

     RIP CURRENT RISK through late tonight for Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Baker-Ben Hill-

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Coffee-Dale-

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday
     for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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