Area Forecast Discussion
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770 FXUS62 KTAE 142054 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 354 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Deep ridging will persist into tonight with dry weather, clear skies, and light winds. We expect another strong low-level inversion tonight with radiational cooling. This could create some patchy fog, similar to earlier this morning. Low temperatures between 33 and 37 away from the coast will also likely lead to some patchy frost. .Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... Middle and upper level ridging will be pushed east out of the Tri- State region tomorrow as a large +PV anomaly moves out of the Central Plains into the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valleys. The bulk of the forcing associated with the anomaly will pass well to our north, however some +PVA will be possible locally as a piece of the parent anomaly advects eastward. With plenty of deep layer dry air, this will do nothing more than spread a few high clouds overhead through the afternoon. Monday night and Tuesday, the cold front associated with the main anomaly will pass through the Tri-State region. Though with dry air already spreading back in behind the leading upper-level anomaly, and no deep layer forcing, the surface front and low- level moisture will be the only means of generating any precipitation across the area. Thus, expect only shallow, light showers along the immediate front. These showers may also be scattered in nature so only 30% PoPs are being advertised at this time. With the moist return flow ahead of the front, expect both daytime and overnight temperatures to be a few degrees above normal through Tuesday. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... Nearly zonal flow aloft, and surface high pressure will keep us dry and yield near seasonal temperatures to finish the week. Over the weekend, another shortwave will pass just northwest of us and bring another weakening frontal system and a chance for showers to the Tri-State region.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Monday] VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds are expected to persist. We may see a brief period of MVFR VIS in light fog around daybreak Monday at ECP, DHN, and ABY - similar to this morning.
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&& .Marine...
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Light winds and low seas will prevail through Monday. Monday night through Tuesday, an uptick to cautionary level winds will be possible behind a cold front. Though the headline conditions will likely not spread east of Apalachicola. Winds and seas will then subside once again to finish the week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Fair weather will continue through Monday. Low mixing heights and light winds will continue to keep the daytime dispersion values unusually low on Monday. A cold front will move quickly east across the region Tuesday afternoon, bringing scattered showers with low rainfall totals.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Over the next week or so nearly dry conditions will prevail. A couple of frontal systems may bring some light to moderate rain to the region, though week-long rainfall amounts should stay below a quarter of an inch for most spots, and almost certainly below a half inch region-wide. Essentially no response is expected across area rivers.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 35 70 46 73 43 / 0 0 0 30 10 Panama City 45 65 57 70 48 / 0 0 20 30 10 Dothan 36 69 51 69 41 / 0 0 30 30 0 Albany 33 68 46 70 41 / 0 0 20 30 0 Valdosta 34 68 43 73 44 / 0 0 0 20 10 Cross City 35 70 43 73 47 / 0 0 0 20 10 Apalachicola 43 65 55 71 50 / 0 0 0 30 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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