Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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499 FXUS62 KTAE 260253 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1053 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS...AND THAT WILL BE VERY NEAR DAWN ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY]... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL BUT ABY AND ECP TONIGHT. ECP WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD BANK SO THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY THERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [419 PM EDT]...
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.SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME DECENT INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND SO WE BELIEVE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ON THE LOW SIDE...ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ZERO. SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]... BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 70 FARTHER SOUTH. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN COMMENCE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TEMPORARILY FLATTENS OUT. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY MID-WEEK. .MARINE... SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...AS ARE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. .FIRE WEATHER... OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR HIGH DISPERSION INDICES BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. .HYDROLOGY... NEARLY ALL OF THE LOCAL RIVERS WERE BELOW ACTION STAGE. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MAJOR RISES ON THE RIVERS. WE EXPECT BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT OF COURSE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 58 79 62 72 44 / 0 50 70 40 10 PANAMA CITY 64 73 60 67 47 / 10 60 70 30 0 DOTHAN 59 77 55 65 40 / 0 50 60 20 0 ALBANY 59 79 58 66 41 / 0 40 60 30 10 VALDOSTA 58 79 61 68 43 / 0 30 60 50 10 CROSS CITY 60 83 64 74 46 / 0 30 50 70 10 APALACHICOLA 63 77 65 73 47 / 10 60 70 40 10
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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