Area Forecast Discussion
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375 FXUS62 KTAE 201535 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1135 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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With stratus refusing to lift...updated 1st period GRIDS to increase sky cover and tweak dwon expected Max temps..to low 70s west to upper 60s east. The large scale regional pattern this morning shows mid/upper ridge over Wrn MS and slow moving low parked just off Carolina Coast. At the surface...low has slightly decoupled from upper system and was located off SE GA Coast. In response...High continues to wedge down Ern seaboard. Wrap around moisture from surface low continues to move WSW and across local area keeping a low stratus blanket with some drizzle Ern third of CWA. This reflected in RAP soundings and 12z RAOBS which show ample moisture at lowest levels then increasingly dry air and with PWATs hovering around 0.9 inches... NNE flow at lowest levels backing to NLY H85-H6 then NW above H6. During the rest of today...upstream ridge will continue to build Ewd with rising heights..NVA and increasing subsidence especially Wrn CFWA. This will shunt low further to the NE. Surface low moves further Newd with Ern ridge wedging down into the Nrn CWA. This could tighten local gradient and provide some gusty winds. As a result... low level flow backs to NE and PWATS remain near 1 inch implying that low clouds will be slow to erode..especially NE third of CWA. Further west..expect some morning breaks in the overcast followed by partly cloudy aftn skies as upper/lower ridge impact increasingly felt. All this could impact max temps. Highs will be warmer than yesterday...from the low 70s SW to upper 60s across cloudier NE.
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&& .Prev Discussion [918 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... The forecast 500 mb height pattern over the Southeast will be one of change to begin the work week, with ridging tonight & Monday, followed by a positive tilt trough on Tuesday. Fair weather and partly cloudy skies are expected through Monday night, with temperatures near climatology. Rain chances will increase on Tuesday, mainly in South AL & GA with the approach of a cold front from the northwest. The GFS and ECMWF indicate that this system will be a much more typical April system (compared to the much stronger, wetter systems we`ve seen so far this normally dry month)- with modest PoP (ranging from 20 to 40%) and low QPF (less than 0.25 in). Any threat of severe storms with this system appears very low due to weak forcing and winds aloft. Temperatures will continue near climo values on Tuesday. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]... The next frontal system looks like it will move through the area on Tuesday. However, it looks weak and fast moving with most of the deep layer moisture affecting the northern half of the area with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pattern appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and another weak system may affect the area on Saturday. The remainder of the period looks dry with near to slightly above average temperatures. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Monday]...IFR then borderline MVFR cigs will continue to prevail this morning. Thereafter, the low level cloudiness will gradually begin to scatter out from SW to NE through the afternoon and early evening as the deep layer low pressure system off the northeast Florida coast moves further away. NE Winds 5 to 10 mph will persist past midnight. Neither fog nor low clouds are expected. .Marine... Moderate north winds this morning will gradually weaken and veer to the east through Monday as the eastern U.S. ridge becomes centered closer to our forecast area. Winds will become westerly ahead of an approaching cold front on Tuesday, but will remain rather light. .Fire Weather... Red Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week. .Hydrology... The several recent heavy rain events have caused nearly all of our local rivers to be above normal stage/flow, with the most recent rain event on Friday driving several rivers well above flood stage. Some of the more notable river forecasts are: The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points along the following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood stage: St. Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers. Fortunately, for now, our medium range NWP models are not forecasting any heavy rain events for the upcoming work week. The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found on our AHPS page (below). http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 70 52 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 20 Panama City 70 56 75 60 75 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dothan 71 52 78 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 40 Albany 69 50 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 30 Valdosta 69 50 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 20 Cross City 72 52 79 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 68 56 73 59 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOCK SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...BLOCK MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/WESTON

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