Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 260844

344 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Showers over the eastern Big Bend early this morning are associated
with the intense shortwave cross the forecast area. The activity
should be east of the area by sunrise as the shortwave and its
associated cold front quickly move into the Atlantic. Breezy
northwest winds will kick in behind the front with a cooler airmass
spilling in. Highs should run about 10 degrees cooler than
Sunday, with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s in the
northwest to the upper 50s in the southeastern Big Bend.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
A strong low pressure system will move up the Eastern Seaboard
overnight into Tuesday. With moderate northwesterly flow
continuing into Wednesday, cooler and dry conditions are expected
for the short term period. Overnight lows will drop into the 30s
tonight and Tuesday night. Cool advection will keep afternoon
highs at or below normal through the short term period despite
sunny skies.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Initially, high pressure will be in control at the beginning of
the long term period on Thursday before a weak cold front moves
across the area on Thursday night. With the bulk of the upper
support remaining well to the north with this front, rain chances
will be minimal. High pressure will build back over the region in
the wake of the cold front, keeping conditions dry into Saturday.
Models begin to diverge a bit late in the period. The next storm
system will approach the region on Sunday. The last several runs
of the guidance has shown a faster northern stream shortwave
bypassing energy cut off across the Southwestern CONUS/Northern
Mexico, thus producing a much weaker system passing through the
area on Monday. However, the 26/00z Euro is a little more
energetic with a deeper northern stream impulse, suggesting higher
rain chances at the end of the period. Given that this latest Euro
run is still more of an outlier, will keep rain chances low for


[Through 12Z Tuesday] VFR conditions are forecast to prevail
through the period. However, do expect gusty northwest winds
during the day at all terminals, with gusts above 25 knots
possible. May also see VFR cigs around BKN040 through much of the


Strong northwesterly winds will remain above advisory levels into
tonight before diminishing slightly on Tuesday. Cautionary level
winds will then continue through Tuesday night. High pressure will
move nearer to the marine area on Wednesday, resulting in a period
of lighter winds and lower seas through the remainder of the week.


.Fire Weather...
A drier airmass will move into the region today in the wake of a
cold front. However, humidity values are forecast to remain above
critical values through the middle of the week. With strong
transport winds today and Tuesday, dispersion values will be


Runoff from last week`s heavy rainfall continues to progress
through area rivers. The best chance for minor flooding continues
to be within the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee basins where river
levels continue to rise through action stage. Both Thomasville
and Valdosta may reach their respective flood stages later today.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   56  37  63  37  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   57  42  62  41  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        52  37  59  35  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        54  35  57  35  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      56  38  59  35  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    59  38  63  35  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  58  42  63  41  59 /   0   0   0   0   0


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Gulf.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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