Area Forecast Discussion
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976
FXUS62 KTAE 261521
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1021 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As a strong area of low pressure departs the region today, high
pressure will build in its wake. Residual low level moisture is
expected to keep conditions mostly cloudy through the day. Highs
will range from the lower 50s across the northwest to the lower 60s
across the southeast big bend.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]...

As an area of low pressure moves away from the area, residual low
level moisture is expected to allow for low clouds to persist
through much of the period with MVFR ceilings.

&&

.Marine...

With 14Z buoy and tower observations still indicating advisory level
seas as high as 10 feet about 60NM offshore, the Small Craft
Advisory was extended until 18Z for the outer waters. Winds have
diminished below SCA criteria. SCEC level winds will likely return
tonight with breezy northeast to east winds persisting into the
weekend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [310 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The trend over the short term period will be a gradually building
ridge aloft (500mb heights increase 130m), while the area remains
situated on the southern periphery of an east coast surface high
pressure. This will keep the weather mostly dry but with cooler-
than-normal temperatures. However, it does appear most locations
will avoid overnight freezes. Small rain chances return on
Saturday as a few rain showers will be possible in the southeast
half of the area as return flow and low-mid level moisture
increase.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

By next week, the ridge aloft should be firmly established over
the Southeast with the east coast surface ridge eroding. This will
set up more of a southerly component to the return flow and allow
temperatures to finally increase. Depending on eventual cloud
cover, a few locations could hit the 80 degree mark early next
week. The forecast calls for mostly mid-upper 70s in the Monday to
Wednesday timeframe right now. Some small rain chances are in the
forecast as models do generate some light QPF, however the primary
QG forcing is currently expected to remain to our north and west.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

A large swath of 1-2 inches of rain fell across the area. For the
most part, rivers will remain below minor flood stage, although
several points will reach action stage. One exception may be the
Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson, which could reach minor flood stage
this weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   56  37  61  40  63 /  10  10   0  10  20
Panama City   55  39  57  43  61 /  10   0   0  10  20
Dothan        51  34  54  36  58 /  10  10   0  10  10
Albany        53  35  56  37  56 /  10  10   0  10  20
Valdosta      56  39  60  41  60 /  10  10   0  10  30
Cross City    61  41  64  45  66 /  10  10  10  10  40
Apalachicola  57  42  59  47  63 /  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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