Area Forecast Discussion
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521 FXUS62 KTAE 211903 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 303 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Skies have remained sunny across much of the area today with a relatively dry air mass in place. This is expected to continue through tonight with the deeper moisture positioned to the south over the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. Given the dry air mass, clear skies, and calm winds, we expect a fairly cool night with below normal temperatures. The low temperature forecast calls for upper 40s north, to around 50 in the I-10 corridor, to the low to mid 50s at the coast. We followed the general pattern of the multi-model consensus, but undercut it by a degree or two given the favorable conditions for efficient radiational cooling. .Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... The dry pattern will continue. A weak cold front will move through on Wednesday with little fanfare other than to reinforce the dry airmass already in place. Under abundant sunshine, daytime highs both days will be just under seasonal levels. With the dry airmass in place, low temps will be below normal. Lows Wednesday night will dip into the lower to mid 40s all zones except around 50 to the lower 50s along the coast. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... The dry pattern is expected to continue through the extended. Mean upper level troughing along the east coast is expected to keep deep moisture from returning to the area. Late in the period, the pattern may start to change with a ridge building off the east coast. However, no significant systems are expected to affect the area for the next several days with PoPs below 20 percent.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Wednesday] VFR conditions with clear skies are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Northwest to north winds around 5-10 knots will become calm overnight.
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&& .Marine...
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Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and seas will increase on Wednesday as another dry cold front moves through. Exercise caution conditions are possible on Wednesday night, especially farther offshore.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Progressively drier air will continue to filter into the region during the next few days. No fire weather problems are expected on Wednesday, but some areas may be of concern for Thursday afternoon, and will be monitored closely.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding concerns.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 50 80 45 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 57 79 52 76 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 49 76 44 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 48 76 44 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 49 77 44 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 51 81 45 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 57 79 51 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...DVD

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