Area Forecast Discussion
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649
FXUS62 KTAE 201844
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
244 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
This Afternoon...With low stratus holding firm...max temps will
have trouble making it to mid 60s. Updated GRIDS to lower this
aftn MAX temps and increase clouds.

Tonight...The mid/upper ridge over MS this eve will move east to
the AL/GA border by sunrise Monday. In response mid/upper low
will continue to slowly lift Newd farther off the SC coast. This
results in rising heights...increasing subsidence and mid/upper
gradually drying overspreading local region from W-E. At
surface...as nearly vertically stacked low lifts Newd...high
pressure ridge continues to ridge down Ern seaboard into Gulf
coast. The combination of this departing low and building ridge
will keep local gradients above normal. Overnight area soundings
show increasing NE flow surface-H8 then backing to NWLY above.
Locally this translates to overnight winds in the 5-10 mph range
highest Ern counties and with PWATS remaining around 0.7-0.8
inches...expect some lower ceilings to persist at least thru
midnight especially Ern GA counties (although thinner than earlier
today and with breaks). Clouds should increasingly scatter out
Wrn counties by midnight. With winds in the 5 to 10 mph range...fog
very unlikely. CAM/ Local confidence tool...Bufkit and SREF show
improving clouds conditions and lack of fog. Expect lows near 50
north to low 50s south.

&&

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday]...
With deep layer ridging in place through Monday, fair weather and
partly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures near
climatology. Rain chances will increase on Tuesday, mainly in
South AL & GA with the approach of a cold front from the
northwest. Unlike the last couple of systems, this one looks much
weaker with less coverage of rain along with lighter amounts,
which is much more typical for April. Any threat of severe storms
with this system appears very low due to weak forcing and weak
winds aloft. Temperatures will continue near climo values on
Tuesday.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The pattern appears to remain fairly progressive through the
period, and a weak system may affect the area on Saturday with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. PoPs for the remainder
of the period look to be below 20 percent. Temperatures are
expected to be near to slightly above their seasonal averages.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday] Low level cloudiness with MVFR CIGS will
gradually begin to scatter out from SW to NE through the rest of
this afternoon and early evening as the deep layer low pressure
system off the northeast Florida coast moves further away. By
midnight VFR should overspread entire area. NE Winds 5 to 10 mph
will persist overnight so neither fog nor AOB MVFR CIGS expected
although borderline MVFR CIGS may linger across N/E of VLD may
linger. After sunrise winds will become less than 10  MPH with VFR
conditions everywhere.

&&

.Marine...
No major systems are expected to affect the area through next
week. Winds will become westerly ahead of an approaching weak
cold front on Tuesday, but they should remain rather light.

&&

.Fire Weather...
The airmass will dry out on Monday but remain above critical
levels. It will begin to gradually moisten up on Tuesday. Red
Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.

&&

.Hydrology...
The several recent heavy rain events have caused nearly all of our
local rivers to be above normal stage/flow, with the most recent
rain event on Friday driving several rivers well above flood stage.
The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is forecast to reach major flood stage
this evening. Other points reaching moderate flood stage are:
Choctawhatchee at Caryville, Chipola at Altha, St. Mark`s at
Newport and the Ochlockonee at Concord and Havana. Rainfall with
Tuesday`s system is expected to be less than a quarter of an inch.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   52  79  52  83  60 /   0   0   0  20  10
Panama City   56  75  59  77  63 /   0   0   0  20  10
Dothan        52  79  56  82  59 /   0   0   0  40  20
Albany        50  80  53  82  58 /   0   0   0  40  20
Valdosta      50  78  50  83  59 /   0   0   0  20  20
Cross City    52  79  52  82  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  56  73  57  77  62 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...WESTON








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