Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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028 FXUS62 KTAE 150020 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 820 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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THE 8 PM EDT REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM OFF THE TX COAST THROUGH NORTHERN AL. OUR FORECAST AREA WAS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE, WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WAS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST AL. THOUGH THE STORMS APPEARED TO BE WEAKENING, THE LATEST HRRR MANAGES TO BRING SOME OF THE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO TALLAHASSEE AND SOUTHWEST GA LATE TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL END EARLIER TO OUR WEST.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY] LIGHT TO MODERATE RA, AND OCCASIONAL +TSRA, WILL AFFECT KDHN, KECP, AND KABY THROUGH 4Z. SOME OF THIS RAIN MAY REACH KTLH BY AROUND 6Z. IFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY AT THE TERMINALS WHERE THE RAIN ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY KDHN AND KECP, AS WELL AS AT KVLD WHERE THE RAIN IS LIKELY TO REACH. ELSEWHERE WE EXPECT MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [334 PM EDT]...
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.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]... THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE SOUTHEAST US WILL REMAIN UNDER RIDGE WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. .LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]... THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHEN THIS WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE EURO HAS IT ON MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A TRANSITION TO A DRIER PERIOD BEHIND THE TROUGH. POPS WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND AROUND 30 PERCENT ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. .MARINE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET INCREASING TO 4 FEET ON SATURDAY. .FIRE WEATHER... A RATHER WET...SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. .HYDROLOGY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP RISES ON THE CHIPOLA RIVER WITH RISES ALSO NOTED ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE, PEA AND SHOAL RIVERS. FOR THE MOST PART, AREA RIVERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THESE TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA RIVERS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 71 82 68 83 67 / 50 60 50 60 40 PANAMA CITY 72 78 68 79 69 / 60 60 40 60 40 DOTHAN 69 81 65 80 64 / 80 70 50 60 50 ALBANY 69 81 65 78 62 / 60 70 60 60 50 VALDOSTA 70 83 65 82 65 / 40 70 60 60 40 CROSS CITY 71 85 67 83 67 / 20 60 40 60 30 APALACHICOLA 73 80 71 81 71 / 50 50 40 60 30
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...WESTON LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...WESTON FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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