Area Forecast Discussion
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115
FXUS62 KTAE 270057
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
857 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Most showers have dissipated for the evening with just some
isolated activity near the FL Panhandle coast and over the Gulf of
Mexico. PoPs were adjusted slightly to reflect radar trends. The
remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.Marine...
Cautionary level winds and seas will return overnight and persist
into Wednesday. Lighter winds and seas are then expected from
Wednesday afternoon through the weekend with winds gradually
veering to onshore.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with winds from the west, generally less than 10 knots,
with the exception of TLH, who`s gusty winds this evening will die
down after sunset.

&&

.Prev Discussion [301 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The upper ridge with very dry air in the mid to upper levels will
remain in place through the short term period. Low level flow will
be from the east to northeast through Wednesday night then become
southeasterly on Thursday bringing increasing moisture to the
boundary layer. We may see some coastal showers Thursday night.
Otherwise, PoPs over land will be at 10% or less. Daytime temps
will be above climo with highs in the lower to mid 90s away from
the immediate coast. Dew points are forecast to mix out in the
upper 50s to lower 60s both afternoons with the exception of the
immediate coast where upper 60s to lower 70s will be common. As a
result, heat indices will not be concern as they should stay within
a few degrees of actual air temps. The exception will be along the
immediate coast on Thursday where heat indices may rise at or
just above 100 degrees.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The GFS and ECMWF show the Tri-State region residing on the western
periphery of deep layer ridging through Saturday. After that the
GFS expands the ridge westward while becoming less amplified. The
ECMWF keeps the area under the western portion of the de-amplifying
ridge. At the surface, low level flow will be southerly with the
high situated well east of the Atlantic seaboard. Both solutions
show a return of deep layer moisture to the area with near to above
normal rain chances each day. Despite the increase in rain chances,
max temps will generally be above climo in the lower to mid 90s.


.Fire Weather...

A relatively dry airmass will remain in place across the region
through Thursday, with minimum humidity values dropping into the
upper 20s. However, Red Flag conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

With little to no measurable rainfall expected across the Tri-State
region until Friday and the upcoming weekend, there are no pressing
hydrological concerns at the present time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  95  70  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
Panama City   75  94  75  94  74 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        67  92  67  95  69 /   0  10  10  10  10
Albany        67  93  65  96  68 /   0   0  10  10   0
Valdosta      66  94  65  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
Cross City    68  94  68  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  74  92  72  92  74 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GOULD






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