Area Forecast Discussion
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646
FXUS62 KTAE 211347
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
947 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The first few frames of morning visible satellite reveal that our
forecast area is situated just north of a more extensive mid-high
level cloud deck associated with a deeper moisture plume and upper
level jet streak. This should provide a sunny day with very
limited cloud cover. The 12Z Tallahassee sounding did reveal +1C
temperature change below 850mb as compared to 24 hours prior. The
slight warming of the boundary layer and sunny skies should lead
to a slightly warmer day with highs in the low-mid 80s, which is
just above normal for this time of year.

&&

.Prev Discussion [229 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The low pressure system over the northeast CONUS will become
vertically stacked on Wednesday and move slowly eastward and
off the New England coast on Thursday. The local area will
continue to reside on the backside of the associated though
through early Wednesday. The upper pattern will then gradually
transition to become nearly zonal by late Thursday. This will
keep deep layer north to northwest flow over the Tri-state area
through the period. At the surface, high pressure will build down
from the north and filter a cooler and much drier airmass into the
region on light northerly winds in the wake of another dry cold
frontal passage tonight. Under abundant sunshine, daytime highs both
days will be just under seasonal levels. With the dry airmass in
place, low temps will be below normal. Min temps tonight will
range from around 50 to the lower 50s except mid to upper 50s
along the immediate coast. Lows Wednesday night will dip into the
lower to mid 40s all zones except around 50 to the lower 50s along
the coast.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.


.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Wednesday] Outside of a possible brief period of MVFR
visibilities at VLD this morning, VFR conditions under clear
skies and relatively light winds will prevail through the TAF.


.Marine...

Offshore flow will prevail at least through the remainder of the
work week. Winds and seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday
and Thursday as another dry cold front moves through.


.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds
today, but will flirt with Red Flag levels both Wednesday and
Thursday. However at this time, even if critical thresholds are met,
duration and/or wind criteria will most likely not. Marginally high
dispersions will also be possible tomorrow in the wake of a dry cold
front. Thus, although Red Flag criteria is not expected at this
time, it may be close on Wed. and Thu. and caution should be
exercised on Wednesday due to the forecast marginally high
dispersion indices.


.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   85  51  79  44  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   82  59  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        82  50  77  44  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        82  49  77  42  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      83  51  77  44  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    86  53  81  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  81  59  79  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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