Area Forecast Discussion
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163
FXUS62 KTAE 270057
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
857 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Clear skies and tranquil conditions are expected. An upper level
ridge to our west has kept most of the CWA dry today with only
isolated thunderstorms on the seabreeze. Expect seasonal
temperatures tonight in the low 70s inland with upper 70s along
coastal regions. With drier air in place, no rain is anticipated.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday]...

With significantly drier air pushing down from
the north (especially at the mid levels), expect VFR conditions to
prevail through the period. Although some of the guidance did show
the potential for brief MVFR conditions at a few of the terminals
late tonight, the very reliable HRRR showed no Vis or Cig
restrictions at all. Also, no additional showers or storms are
expected during entire period with poor instability.

&&

.Prev Discussion [238 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Ridging will continue to build in over the region on Sunday.
Expect little in the way of storm development on Sunday afternoon.
As a result, the building ridge and mostly sunny skies should
result in temperatures warming into the mid to upper 90s. The new
MAV guidance showing a couple of locations with temperatures 100
degrees or warmer seem a little suspect. In any event,
temperatures in the upper 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s will
lead to afternoon heat indices in the 103 to 107 degree range, or
just below heat advisory criteria. Future shifts will make the
assessment for any advisories for Sunday.

On Monday, the ridge will break down as a trough moves into the
Tennessee River Valley pushing a cold front toward the Gulf Coast
States. Expect this boundary to help focus afternoon and evening
storm development, especially across Srn GA/AL where rain chances
have been increased to around 50 percent. With a weakening ridge
and scattered storms, expect highs only in the mid 90s.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Model guidance continues to be in excellent agreement in the
amplification of the Eastern CONUS trough through the long term
period. As the trough deepens on Monday night into Tuesday,
expect a cold front to move through the forecast area by Tuesday
afternoon. While there are some slight differences on timing and
magnitude of the cooler and drier air behind this frontal
boundary, there is good agreement now that the front will clear to
the south. Dry conditions should be in place across the region
from Tuesday evening into Thursday. This interval will also
feature some cool overnight lows, possibly dipping into the lower
60s in the colder spots across Southern Alabama. Even in the
Florida Big Bend, temperatures Wednesday and Thursday mornings
should drop into the upper 60s or just a bit cooler. Records for
this period at Tallahassee are as follows:

July 30 - 67 (1927)
July 31 - 63 (1896)
Aug 1 - 64 (1993)

By Thursday afternoon, moisture will begin to increase once again
across the forecast area as another upper disturbance within the
main upper trough moves into the forecast area. Unsettled
conditions look to return Friday and into next weekend with rain
chances increasing considerably. While overnight lows will return
to climatological norms for early August, daytime temperatures
will still be below normal due to plenty of convective activity.


.Marine...
Moderate westerly flow will persist into Monday when winds will
increase to cautionary levels into Tuesday ahead of a cold front
moving into the marine area. This cold front will pass south of
the waters on Tuesday evening with lighter winds returning.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days,
although high dispersion values are expected Sunday afternoon across
inland Florida big bend and south central Georgia.


.Hydrology...
The Shoal River at Mossy Head has reached bank full stage but is
not forecast to reach flood stage. All other area rivers are below
bank full stage. Thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rainfall
the next few days but widespread impacts are not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  96  78  96  75 /  10  10  10  30  30
Panama City   78  93  79  91  77 /  10  10  10  30  30
Dothan        75  97  77  94  71 /  10  10  10  50  40
Albany        75  97  78  95  72 /  10  10  10  50  40
Valdosta      73  98  77  98  73 /  10  10  10  30  30
Cross City    73  95  76  94  76 /  20  10  10  20  30
Apalachicola  77  91  79  92  78 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for Coastal
     Bay.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN/Dobbs
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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