Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 292351
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
751 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A tropical wave coming ashore to our west will mean slight chances
for rain tonight in our westernmost zones. Convection to our east
that formed off of a boundary from storms earlier today may also
affect the easternmost parts of our forecast area tonight.
Otherwise, tonight will be cloudy with lows in the low to mid 70s,
upper 70s along the immediate coast. Patchy light fog will be
possible in the early morning hours, primarily in southwest Georgia.
[Through 00Z Saturday] Shower activity appears to be over for most
area terminals this evening. However, one or two could stray close
to VLD. Overnight, we expect most areas to see a period of MVFR
visibility. Some guidance suggests low clouds developing at ABY and
VLD, but we have kept them scattered for now due to lower
confidence. Convection will fire once again on Saturday. Greatest
coverage is expected across northern areas including DHN and ABY
will somewhat less activity to the south.
.Prev Discussion [227 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Deepest moisture associated with northward moving tropical wave
will be west and north of the area on Saturday. However, still
expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area. Best chances expected across Georgia, southeast Alabama,
and down the I-75 corridor. With ridge building aloft and
scattered nature of convection, temperatures should be able to
warm into the mid 90s for most locations on Saturday.
Large-scale forcing will be even lower by Sunday, with the upper
ridge still firmly in place. This should yield even lower PoPs
than Saturday, with the seabreeze driving the convection.
Another warm day is likely with mid 90s for highs once again.
.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge over the
northeastern Gulf Coast. The subtropical ridge axis will remain
just north of the forecast area, keeping the low-level flow out of
the south or southeast. With the upper ridge in place and little
synoptic forcing, temperatures are expected to be a little above
normal (lower to mid 90s) with lower than normal rain chances.
The subtropical ridge will be positioned north of the coastal
waters through early next week. As a result, expect to see light
southerly to southeasterly flow continue through at least Tuesday.
No fire weather concerns for at least the next several days.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but
widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding
concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due
to a drier than average summer.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 74 94 74 93 73 / 20 40 20 40 20
Panama City 78 90 77 91 77 / 20 30 20 30 20
Dothan 73 93 74 94 74 / 20 50 20 30 20
Albany 73 94 73 95 73 / 10 50 30 30 20
Valdosta 73 94 72 93 72 / 30 50 30 50 20
Cross City 74 93 73 92 72 / 30 40 30 40 20
Apalachicola 78 90 76 90 76 / 20 30 10 30 20