Area Forecast Discussion
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053 FXUS62 KTAE 210105 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 905 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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For the first 12 hours of the forecast (Tonight), we made some small changes mainly related to the distribution of PoPs for the evening hours. The only remaining convective activity across the area as of 00Z was in portions of southwest Georgia along and behind a southward propagating outflow boundary. This activity was diminishing quickly and that matches the trends in the convection allowing models, which showed a sharp decrease in convection between 00Z and 02Z. We followed a similar trend and kept a dry forecast outside of SW Georgia. The most significant change this evening was the issuance of a Heat Advisory for Thursday to Saturday. 18Z guidance continued the trend of earlier models in showing a very hot and humid period beginning tomorrow (arguably it began today) and lingering into the weekend. We expect near-record high temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 each day; combined with afternoon dewpoints around 70 into the lower 70s, those temperatures should yield heat index values over 105 on a fairly widespread basis, with a decent number of locations also peaking in the 108-111 degree range. Heat stress may be compounded by the mostly sunny skies (with limited convection), light winds, long duration, and warm overnight lows. Furthermore, there are quite a few outdoor activities around the area the next few days, so more people than usual may be at risk from the heat. RECORD HIGHS AT SELECTED LOCATIONS AUGUST 21-23 ------------------------------------------------- ...LOCATION... ...21ST... ...22ND... ...23RD... Tallahassee (TLH) 99 (1968) 100 (1980) 101 (1918) Apalachicola (AAF) 96 (1980) 96 (1980) 97 (2007) **3SE Albany (COOP) 101 (1983) 101 (1980) 104 (1980) ** NOTE: The Albany Airport (ABY) does not have a long period of record, but the Albany cooperative observer station has a period of record dating back to the early 20th century. Therefore, records listed above are shown from that location. This station report is included daily in the RTPTAE product as site ABYG1.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with the exception of some possible MVFR visibility around VLD for a few hours near sunrise.
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&& .Prev Discussion [233 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]... High pressure will continue to build across the region aloft and at the surface, resulting in very hot conditions. Highs will be at near record levels in the upper 90s to near 101 both days with heat indices in the 105-110 range. Overnight lows will be warm in the mid 70s. Precipitation will be below normal as will sky cover, with showers and isolated thunderstorms confined to Florida zones focused along the afternoon sea-breeze. .Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]... It will continue to be hot and relatively dry over the coming weekend as ridging persists and builds inland. With this fairly long stretch of hot days and mild nights Heat Advisories are again likely, although heat indices will become more dependent upon afternoon cloudiness as we move into the early part of the week. An east-west surface trough will begin to settle south across the region late in the weekend into early next week as an upper level trough digs southward across the western Atlantic on the front side of the strong upper ridge. This may increase precipitation chances early in the week as well as cloud cover which would suppress daytime heating somewhat. The main story will be what happens midweek into the latter part of next week with the potential development of a tropical system moving into the Gulf. Global models are not in agreement with each other, nor are they showing much run-to-run consistency at this time, but this will be monitored carefully in the next several days. .Marine... Light to occasionally moderate west winds will continue into the upcoming weekend. Seas will remain in the 1 to 2 foot range. .Fire Weather... Despite drier air moving into the area, relative humidities will remain above red flag criteria through the week. No red flag conditions are expected. .Hydrology... Rainfall totals ranged from 1 to 3 inches yesterday. The next few days will be drier with no significant rain expected. With all area rivers below action stage, no flooding is expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 75 99 76 100 76 / 10 20 10 20 10 Panama City 78 95 80 97 79 / 10 20 10 20 10 Dothan 75 97 76 99 75 / 10 20 10 20 10 Albany 75 100 76 100 75 / 50 20 10 20 10 Valdosta 74 99 74 100 75 / 30 20 10 20 10 Cross City 74 96 75 97 75 / 10 20 10 20 10 Apalachicola 77 96 79 95 79 / 10 10 10 20 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Heat Advisory from Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Thursday to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for all zones. GA...Heat Advisory from Noon Thursday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for all zones. AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 7 PM CDT Saturday for all zones. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH AVIATION...DVD MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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