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168
FXUS62 KTAE 161037
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
637 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2013

UPDATE...Old diffuse front located from Srn FL Peninsula NWWD across
our Nrn most Gulf waters then across Pensacola area. Along and
south of this boundary isentropic lift aiding in development of
showers which were slowly moving northward reaching our coastal
counties.

.SHORT TERM [Today]...
The upper level ridge will flatten today as a shortwave translates
for the Midwest to the mid-Atlantic states. At the surface, winds
will veer becoming more southerly and bring increasing low level
moisture to the Tri-state region. Although we should see an
increase in convection today, will keep PoPs below climatology for
most areas as the mid levels remain fairly dry. Highs will be around
90 to the lower 90s inland areas and upper 80s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
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The large scale longwave pattern commences with full latitude
ridging over wrn states, zonal to weak cyclonic flow Ewd to Ern
seaboard and a ridge nosing NEWD across Cntrl Gulf with large but
weakening upper high south of LA coast. Several impulses will move
from MS Valley sewd to TX then ride Ewd in zonal flow with one
slated to cross our area early Mon. At surface, high continues to
move Ewd off Carolina Coast with axis SWWD across local region and
into Cntrl Gulf eroding the old stationary front located over the
marine area. With high shunted Ewd, local flow continue to veer
and weaken bringing a modest increase in low level moisture and
small chance of evening convection expected.

During the rest of the period, as westerlies drop to the SE,
additional subtle impulses will move Ewd across Mid-South/Nrn
Gulf region transitioning zonal flow to a modestly more amplified
cyclonic pattern each day. Gulf high/ridge will be nudged swd,
weaken and elongate w-e. At the surface, surface ridge shifts swd
and the weakened gradient will favor light onshore flow and the
development of afternoon gulf seabreezes. With low level flow
becoming SWLY, area PWATS will rise to between 1.5 and 1.8 inches.
Also by late Tues, impulses will push upstream cold front SWD
reaching Nrn AL/GA placing local area increasingly in warm sector.
An impulse may also drop far enough south to impact our Nrn tier
counties and combined with approaching front and seabreeze/
outflow clashes will generate at least sct storms and if all comes
together, some storms could be strong to isold pulse severe.

Thus, PoPs are expected to be a bit higher each day, 20-40% S-N
gradient on Mon, and 20-50% on Tues. Under onshore flow, expect
inland lows each night 70 to 73 degrees. Inland highs each afternoon
will range from 90 to 94 degrees.
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&&

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through Saturday]...
A fairly seasonal period is expected with scattered afternoon and
evening convection each day. Temperatures are expected to remain
near their seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...[Through 06z Monday]
There is a possibility for a few hours of MVFR ceilings around
daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
the region for this TAF cycle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop this afternoon but coverage will be too low
to justify anything more than a vicinity thunderstorm in this
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds are expected to surge to near cautionary levels east
of Apalachicola into this morning then diminish by late morning on
Sunday. Winds and seas are then expected to remain low through the
middle of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected anytime soon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River gages are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee   91  72  93  71  93 / 30  20  30  10  20
Panama City   87  75  86  75  85 / 30  10  20  10  20
Dothan        92  72  93  73  92 / 30  20  40  20  40
Albany        92  72  94  73  92 / 30  20  40  30  40
Valdosta      90  72  92  70  93 / 30  20  40  20  30
Cross City    91  71  91  70  91 / 40  20  20  10  20
Apalachicola  86  75  84  75  85 / 30  10  10  10  20
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Block
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Block
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...DVD/Block