Area Forecast Discussion
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129 FXUS62 KTAE 210553 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 153 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014 .Near Term [Today]...
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Deep layer ridging, dry conditions along with mostly sunny skies will help temperatures return to around seasonal levels. Max temps will be in the upper 70s to around 80 inland areas and lower to mid 70s along the coast. .Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... The positive-tilted 500 mb trough currently over the Central Plains will translate eastward over the Southeast tonight and Tuesday. The associated surface cold front appears quite weak in the model solutions, and both the GFS and ECMWF show this front stalling near the FL-GA border Tuesday night and Wednesday as the upper trough moves off to the east. The latest NWP guidance doesn`t show very impressive omega fields with this system, and our PoP will range from 20% in Tallahassee to 40% around Dothan and Albany Tuesday afternoon. Although the large scale lifts doesn`t seem that impressive, there may be enough SBCAPE to support at least a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. However, any threat for a severe storm appears low given the overall lack of vertical wind shear and strong forcing. The highest QPF will likely be over our northern zones, but QPF totals are currently only projected to be about 0.25 in or less. Temperatures will generally be slightly above climatology. .Long Term [Wednesday night Through Monday]... The pattern appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and a weak system may affect the area on Saturday with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. PoPs for the remainder of the period look to be below 20 percent. Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above their seasonal averages.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Tuesday]...VFR conditions with mainly high level cloudiness through the TAF cycle. Winds will mostly be light and offshore except becoming onshore at ECP this afternoon.
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&& .Marine...
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The pressure gradient will be relatively weak through Wednesday, so winds and seas are expected to remain below 15 KT. There will be a slight increase in winds and choppiness near the coast each afternoon due to the daily sea breeze development.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Most of our local rivers were above their normal stages, with several in flood. Fortunately the next rain chance is unlikely to cause significant rises, with QPF amounts generally less than 0.25 in. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce was near major flood stage. Other points reaching moderate flood stage are: Choctawhatchee at Caryville, Chipola at Altha, St. Mark`s at Newport and the Ochlockonee at Concord and Havana. The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found on our AHPS page (below). http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 79 54 83 60 83 / 0 0 30 10 10 Panama City 77 59 76 63 79 / 0 0 20 10 10 Dothan 78 57 81 60 83 / 0 0 40 20 10 Albany 80 55 82 59 83 / 0 0 40 20 0 Valdosta 78 54 84 60 85 / 0 0 30 20 10 Cross City 79 53 83 58 83 / 0 0 10 10 10 Apalachicola 73 58 76 62 77 / 0 0 10 10 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/WESTON

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