Area Forecast Discussion
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329
FXUS62 KTAE 281841
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
241 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The cold front across the Southeast continues to move off toward
the Gulf Coast States with scattered convection already initiating
ahead of the boundary. Storms are also developing along the sea
breeze front, mainly in the Florida Big Bend. So far, development
through 1830z has been fairly close to the 28/09z WRF forecast, which
the morning forecast was weighted heavily toward.

Overall, the thermodynamic environment is quite favorable for
the additional development and intensification of storms. SBCAPE
values exceed 4000 J/kg across the entire forecast area.
Kinematics aren`t overly impressive with deep layer shear values
only in the 25 to 30kt range. With the added forcing of the cold
front, expect storms to gradually merge into multi-cell clusters
or linear segments as they progress toward the region this
afternoon and evening. Primary concerns are for damaging winds.
Hail is also a possibility in the strongest storms.

Storms should diminish after about 04z as the cold front nears
the coast and much of the daily instability is lost. Cooler and
drier air will begin spreading into the region with overnight lows
north of the Florida border possibly dropping into the upper 60s.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
By Tuesday morning the cold front will be south of a
Valdosta-Tallahassee-Apalachicola line and will continue to push
south of the FL Big Bend by late afternoon. This will result in a
chance of showers and thunderstorms south of the front through the
day, mainly in the Big Bend area, with dry conditions Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

The front will usher in cooler and much drier air, resulting in
overnight lows that will come close to some long-standing records.
For Tuesday night expect low 60s in southern AL and southern GA with
mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Similar readings are expected for
Wednesday although some locations could be cooler by a degrees or
two as drier air continues to work into the area. Daytime highs will
range from the upper 80s to the lower and mid 90s.

Stayed close to current forecasts for next couple of days. For
example at Tallahassee going for lows around 66 Wednesday and
Thursday mornings. The record lows here for those dates are:

July 30 - 67 (1927) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
July 31 - 63 (1896) Wednesday night/Thursday morning

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Florida
counties early this afternoon. A stronger cluster or line of
thunderstorms is expected to develop over central AL/GA later this
afternoon. These storms will move into DHN and ABY late this
afternoon and towards TLH and VLD this evening. These storms could
produce very strong winds and small hail. Otherwise VFR conditions
are expected overnight and into tomorrow.

&&

.Marine...
Westerly winds will continue at a solid 15-20kt in the exercise
caution range with the approach of a cold front from the north.
Winds will become offshore behind the front on Tuesday and gradually
diminish Tuesday night. Expect light to moderate offshore winds
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front
and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
values dropping into the lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than currently anticipated.

&&

.Hydrology...
Storms moving through the region today could produce isolated
rainfall totals around an inch or so, but widespread heavy totals
aren`t anticipated. Storm motions are also quick enough to lessen
any flood concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  93  66  93  66 /  60  10   0  10   0
Panama City   75  92  72  90  72 /  60  10   0  10   0
Dothan        70  91  66  90  65 /  40   0   0  10   0
Albany        69  91  65  91  66 /  40   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      71  92  64  92  67 /  60  10   0  10   0
Cross City    75  93  68  94  69 /  50  30  10  10   0
Apalachicola  76  91  71  90  73 /  50  20   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien-
     Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Geneva-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




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