Area Forecast Discussion
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905
FXUS62 KTAE 181935
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
335 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer ridging over the southeastern CONUS will allow the
sea-breeze to be the main driver of our local weather today. The
12Z TAE sounding showed 1000-700mb flow was from the west at over
10 knots, which is our regime 5 sea-breeze pattern. The PWAT value
of 1.85", which is 98% of the normal value. Overall, we`re
expecting a pretty typical regime 5 day, with chances for
afternoon thunderstorms highest over north Florida, but with
slightly more coverage than normal for this pattern over our
southeast Alabama counties to account for storms coming into the
area from the west. Storms will last through the evening,
dissipating before midnight, with new development along the
Panhandle in the early morning hours. An early start to storms and
heavy cloud cover will keep temperatures a little cooler than
previously forecast. Highs today will be in the low 90s and lows
will be in the mid 70s.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
An upper level shortwave will pass through northern Georgia on
Tuesday. This may focus a higher coverage of afternoon
thunderstorms across the northern portions of the area compared
to further south. Despite the scattered storms, the westerly low-
level flow will support temperatures in the mid 90s during the
afternoon.

Overall precip coverage will likely be lower on Wednesday as the
low-level flow becomes more northwesterly as the mid-level ridge
builds just west of the forecast area. The northwesterly flow will
be warmer as well, with mid to upper 90s expected for afternoon
highs.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
An upper level ridge is expected to build northward from the Gulf
across the southeast states through the period. With deep layer
ridging acting to suppress afternoon convection, PoPs are forecast
to be slightly below average through the period with temperatures
above average. The main driver for convection will be the sea
breeze with isolated to scattered coverage expected.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday] Showers and thunderstorms today will affect
ECP, TLH, VLD, and DHN and then clear out in the evening. Winds
will generally be from the west at 10 kts or less, with gustier
winds during thunderstorms. Some of the guidance is suggesting
MVFR-IFR cig development in the early morning hours near ECP and
DHN, but left out of this package because confidence is low.

&&

.Marine...
High pressure will remain situated over the central Gulf through
this week, keeping winds out of the west to southwest and
generally below 15 knots outside of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Normal summer conditions through the week will mean plentiful
moisture, preventing red flag criteria from being met.

&&

.Hydrology...
Significant flooding is not expected over the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  95  75  97  75 /  20  40  10  30  10
Panama City   79  91  78  93  78 /  20  30  10  20  10
Dothan        73  94  74  96  74 /  30  40  10  30  10
Albany        74  94  75  97  75 /  20  40  10  30  10
Valdosta      74  96  74  96  74 /  20  40  10  30  10
Cross City    76  93  75  94  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  78  91  77  93  77 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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