Area Forecast Discussion
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294
FXUS62 KTAE 022130
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
430 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The main issue tonight will be fog development. Fog has formed over
the Gulf today and was slowly moving onshore. Guidance shows the fog
over the water sticking around. With plenty of moisture and calm to
light winds, mentioned patchy fog for the land areas as well. Low
temperatures will be in the upper 50s.


.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

A building ridge will keep rain chances to our north through most
of the short range period. A cold front will bring a good chance
for rain to our Alabama and Florida panhandle counties starting
primarily on Wednesday night.

High temperatures will be well above average both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Expect upper 70s and lower 80s region-wide. Overnight
lows will be quite mild in the upper 50s. Widespread fog should be
expected each night.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

A cold front will bring rain chances to the area on Thursday, with
higher PoP values across Alabama and Georgia. The front will stall
out just to the south of our Gulf waters though clouds will
stick around through most of the period. The cool air behind the
front will keep highs on Friday in the 50s across the region,
however temperatures will rebound quickly as high temperatures are
expected to be in the upper 60s again by Monday. Following the
frontal passage on Thursday, conditions for the remainder of the
period are expected to be cloudy with at least chance of rain each
day due to significant model differences.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

Finally some noticeable improvement at some of the terminals this
afternoon, especially to the south of the warm front (at ECP and
TLH) where the cool Sfc ridge has retreated a bit. This has
allowed skies to break out into VFR levels at these sites with
temps jumping into the 70s. Further to the N and W, skies are
attempting to lift and break out, but are having more difficulty.
Nevertheless, MVFR Cigs are being reached at DHN, ABY, and VLD,
and VFR conditions could briefly interlude before the aftn is
over. Conditions will deteriorate once again tonight, with
IFR/LIFR conditions re-developing to the north and MVFR to
possible IFR levels to the south. Hopefully, these poor conditions
will finally reach VFR at all sites after 18Z on Tue.

&&

.Marine...

Fog will be the primary concern in the near term over our Gulf
waters. Ongoing dense fog covers a large area between 10 to 60
miles offshore. To the east of Apalachicola, fog will continue to
spread south through the first half of the night. Thereafter,
a transition to easterly flow should stop the southerly spread.
West of Apalachicola, where easterly flow will prevail all night,
dense fog should continue all night and spread closer to the
coast. It is likely that the fog will continue through at least
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
Afternoon dispersions may be on the high side across the eastern big
bend on Wednesday.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River at Havana is forecast to reach minor flood
stage overnight and will crest on Wednesday. The Apalachicola at
Blountstown, Withlacoochee at Valdosta and Ochlockonee at Concord
have all crested and will fall below flood stage by tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   59  78  57  80  62 /  10  10  10  20  30
Panama City   59  71  59  71  61 /  10  10  10  30  40
Dothan        58  77  59  77  56 /  20  30  20  30  60
Albany        57  77  58  78  60 /  20  30  10  20  50
Valdosta      59  79  60  82  63 /  10  20  10  10  20
Cross City    59  79  58  80  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  59  68  59  69  63 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory for waters from Destin to the Suwannee
     River out to 60 NM through Tuesday morning.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...MERRIFIELD/HARRIGAN
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON







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