Area Forecast Discussion
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215 FXUS62 KTAE 202022 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 422 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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With plenty of dry, sinking air aloft (behind a 500 mb low centered off the GA coast), deep moist convection for the remainder of this afternoon and evening will be few and far between. Even in the Valdosta area, which was within a zone of slightly more favorable thermodynamics, showers originating from the FL/GA east coast have been dissipating quickly as they moved west. This rain will taper off quickly this evening, leaving our region with clearing skies and cooler temperatures (lows in the lower to mid 60s, lower 70s beaches and cities). .Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... For Sunday, relatively sunny skies are expected with dry weather as PWATs are forecast to fall below 1 inch over the entire area with deep-layer dry air advection from the north. The GFS forecast values are nearly 2 standard deviations below normal. We expect highs near 90 with lower humidity. Changes are expected by Monday as a shortwave trough will dig southeast into the region. The GFS indicates a much less amplified wave, with weak QG convergence. However, the new 12Z ECMWF has trended towards a sharper, more amplified shortwave with relatively strong QG convergence. The result is higher QPF in that particular model. The 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean depicts a more amplified wave than the operational GFS too, although not as amplified as the operational ECMWF (perhaps only 25-30% of the ensemble members are). Given that is a recent change, we went with a forecast that maintained more continuity, although if the trend continues on the 00Z models, PoPs and sky cover may need to be trended up on Monday - especially in the northern half of the area. For now, PoPs are around 20% over most of the area. Highs ahead of the approaching front will be in the 89-92 degree range in most areas (just above normal values). .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... A strong surface high is likely to persist through much of the period over the Northeast US, with an average 5-day position somewhere in the vicinity of NY/PA per the GFS and ECMWF. With a trend toward lower than normal surface pressures in the Gulf, this will place the Gulf coast region in an extended period of easterly low-level flow. Through mid-week, this should be accompanied by cooler than normal temperatures and isolated showers. As next weekend approaches (especially Friday and Saturday), rain chances may begin to increase as tropical moisture arrives through slow, steady northward advection over the course of the week.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Sunday] The large area of MVFR CIGS over our forecast area will gradually improve to VFR levels through the afternoon, and will eventually scattered out by later afternoon or this evening. Scattered SHRA will affect KVLD this afternoon, though they should be brief. Generally VFR conditions are expected overnight and Sunday.
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&& .Marine...
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With a ship report in our offshore coastal zone reporting winds of 18-19 knots over the past couple hours, and several buoys indicating similar winds, we will maintain a SCEC headline into the evening hours, even though the trend has been for winds to diminish. Relatively calm winds and seas are expected from Sunday into Monday before the next front arrives on Tuesday, ushering in an extended period of at least SCEC winds.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds over the next several days despite the intrusion of drier air. Thus, hazardous dire weather conditions are not expected.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Only light rainfall amounts are expected to fall across the region over the next several days, creating little or no impact on our area rivers and streams.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 66 90 64 92 66 / 10 0 0 20 20 Panama City 71 88 72 90 69 / 10 0 0 20 20 Dothan 64 89 66 90 62 / 10 0 0 20 10 Albany 62 90 65 89 63 / 10 0 0 20 10 Valdosta 62 90 62 91 64 / 10 0 0 20 20 Cross City 65 89 65 91 65 / 30 10 10 10 10 Apalachicola 69 86 70 88 71 / 20 0 0 10 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...GOULD

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