Area Forecast Discussion
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278 FXUS62 KTAE 280723 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 323 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Shortwave energy diving into the base of the deep and broad eastern trough will drive a cold front towards the Gulf Coast today. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of the front and move into the northern zones by mid-afternoon, reaching Florida by late afternoon or early evening. Given the presence of a reasonable forcing mechanism and an unstable atmosphere, the statistical guidance seems unreasonably low with PoPs for this afternoon and evening (less than 30 percent). Ensemble of CAM guidance appears to have a better handle of the expected convective evolution, so have weighted the forecast PoPs heavily in this direction. While mid-level flow will be rather modest (20-25 knots), mid- level lapse rates will be reasonably high (6.5-7C/km) and low level moisture will be plentiful (dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s). This combination will yield 2500-3500J/kg of CAPE across the region this afternoon. With some dry air in the mid-layers, this should set the stage for some strong to severe storms. Damaging straight-line winds should be the primary threat. However, some large hail cannot be ruled out. With the expected late onset of precip over the southern half of the forecast area, expect temperatures to reach the upper 90s once again. High dewpoints will help push the heat index to near 108 degrees along the I-10 corridor early this afternoon. Therefore, have issued a Heat Advisory for these areas. .Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... By this evening, the cold front will be bisecting the forecast area and continuing to move steadily southeastward. A few strong to severe storms will remain possible out ahead of it through the evening hours with a gradual weakening trend expected overnight. The front should be through most of the area by dawn on Tuesday with the exception of the far southeast big bend. Significantly drier air in its wake will allow low temperatures to reach the mid 60s over most of the area by Wednesday morning with PoPs below 20%. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... The full latitude eastern CONUS trough will continue to amplify through the period. The front which will move across the area early in the week will usher in much drier and cooler air through Thursday, with the possibility of reaching some record morning lows. The long standing records for this period at Tallahassee are: July 30 - 67 (1927) July 31 - 63 (1896) Aug 1 - 64 (1993) Expect generally dry and relatively cool conditions for Wednesday and Thursday with very low PoPs. Thursday and Friday morning lows, July 31st and Aug 1st, will range from 65-70. By late Thursday, moisture will begin to increase once again across the forecast area as another upper disturbance within the main upper trough moves into the forecast area. For Friday through the weekend expect a return to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. The increased convection for the end of the week and weekend will keep high temperatures in the 85 to 90 range across the area.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Tuesday] Expect VFR conditions into the early afternoon at all terminals. Thunderstorms will likely impact all terminals during the afternoon and evening hours, spreading from north to south. A few a these storms could have very strong wind gusts. Activity should be south of all terminals by around 02Z tonight.
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&& .Marine...
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The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the south and the approaching cold front to the north will maintain westerly winds at exercise caution levels at times through tonight. Winds will gradually diminish and become offshore by Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red flag conditions are not expected for the next couple of days. Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the lower 30s.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Thunderstorms along a cold front could bring some locally heavy rainfall to the area this afternoon and this evening, but the system will remain progressive and widespread impacts from heavy rain are not expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 97 73 94 66 93 / 50 60 10 0 10 Panama City 90 76 92 72 91 / 40 60 10 0 10 Dothan 96 69 92 66 90 / 60 50 0 0 10 Albany 98 71 91 66 92 / 60 40 0 0 10 Valdosta 97 72 93 65 93 / 50 60 10 0 10 Cross City 93 76 94 67 93 / 30 40 30 10 10 Apalachicola 91 76 92 70 90 / 30 50 20 0 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Heat Advisory from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Central Walton- Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson- Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin- Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton- Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Early-Grady- Lanier-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas. AL...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Geneva- Houston. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...DVD

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