Area Forecast Discussion
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402
FXUS62 KTAE 272357
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
757 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With a deep layer ridge in place across much of the Southeast, we
expect fair weather and mild temperatures overnight. Lows will be
in the mid 50s, but a bit warmer at the beaches and in the cities.
Virtually all of the latest NWP guidance forecast areas of dense
fog late tonight through mid morning Tuesday, and this seems like
a good bet given what happened this morning, as well as the climatology
associated with abnormally warm conditions this time of year.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] We expect dense fog to develop at all
sites between 06z and 10z. Because this fog should be shallow, VFR
Vis will return between 13z and 14z, with unlimited
cigs/unrestricted Vis for the remainder of Tues. Winds will be
light S-SE, becoming S around 10 KT at KECP by early afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [308 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

An upper level trough will approach and continue to deepen over
the eastern CONUS with the axis remaining west of our CWA. At the
surface, a cold front will push into the SE U.S. Tuesday and
gradually weaken as it moves across the Tri-state region Wednesday
and Wednesday night. PoPs will be highest Wednesday afternoon
tapered from lower chance (30%) west of Albany to Panama City and
slight to silent (20-10%) east of there. PoPs will be in the
slight range all zones for Wednesday night. Temps will be above
seasonal levels with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 50s
to lower 60s.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

The upper level trough will deepen further while moving to our
east by the weekend. There will be a slight chance for showers
over our southern zones Thursday/Thursday night until the front
pushes to our south. A cooler and much drier airmass will filter
in over the weekend with a return to near normal temps on Monday
as winds swing around to the east ahead of the next developing low
pressure system.


.Marine...

Light onshore flow will prevail through Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front. This front will move through the marine
area Wednesday night, shifting winds to offshore. An gradual
increase in offshore flow is expected with at least advisory
conditions by late Friday or Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Fair & warm weather will persist through Tuesday. A weak cold front
will pass through the region Wednesday night, bringing a modest
chance of showers to the region. A return to lower dewpoints
and more seasonal temperatures is expected for Thursday & Friday.
Areas of dense fog are expected Tuesday morning.


.Hydrology...

Our next chance for rain is Wednesday, but rainfall totals are
expected to be below 0.5". With area rivers currently well below
flood stage and low QPF in the forecast, no flooding is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  86  56  85  59 /   0   0  10  20  20
Panama City   62  84  65  81  63 /   0   0  10  20  20
Dothan        56  84  61  84  56 /   0   0  10  30  20
Albany        55  86  58  86  55 /   0   0  10  30  20
Valdosta      54  86  56  84  57 /   0   0  10  10  20
Cross City    53  85  56  85  58 /   0   0  10  10  20
Apalachicola  59  81  62  80  63 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FOURNIER/BARRY
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE







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