Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
005 FXUS62 KTAE 280827 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 327 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
-- Changed Discussion --
A thin band of rain has developed over the northeast Gulf of Mexico early this morning; as of 07Z it extended from about 170mi south of Mobile, AL to Cross City, FL. This was associated with a ribbon of mid-level (600-400mb) frontogenesis. This is forecast by most models to persist through the morning hours. PoPs were increased into the likely range for the eastern Florida Big Bend as a result. Rain chances should also expand north into the remainder of the Florida Big Bend and southwest Georgia later this morning as low-level isentropic ascent increases near the top of an inversion layer (900-850mb). As low-level ascent and moisture increase, we expect low clouds to expand north and west, with additional rain showers during the day. Outside of more organized areas of rain, enough weak low-level vertical motion may exist for some light sprinkles or drizzle, so we included some patchy drizzle in the forecast as well. Overall, rainfall should be light, with most places seeing less than 0.10" of rain. The combination of a relatively thick low cloud layer and periodic rain or drizzle suggests a very cool day. That notion is reinforced by model forecasts of a developing surface ridge from central NC into central GA. That pattern tends to favor maintaining a wedge of cooler air with northeasterly flow at the surface. Given all that, we have gone on the cool end of model guidance for high temperatures today, with highs in the upper 40s across most of southwest Georgia, to the mid-50s in most of southeast Alabama and our Florida zones. These values are about 15-20 degrees below normal. .Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... The wedge of high pressure at the surface will weaken while upper ridging builds over the GOMEX and the gulf coastal states. While we will see drier air filtering in the mid levels, there will be plenty of moisture in the low levels to keep at least mostly cloudy conditions in the forecast and patchy mostly light rain. Temps will be below seasonal levels on Sunday. Then with low level winds shifting to the southeast along with rising heights, look for temps to be at or above normal for Monday will all locations seeing max readings in the 70s. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... The warming trend will continue through Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. We will also see mostly isolated showers both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Then a chance for heavier rain along with thunderstorms for Wednesday night and Thursday as a strong cold front pushes through the region. Behind the front, a return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[through 06Z Sunday] The latest set of guidance shows a steady expansion of low stratus to the north and west today across the area. MVFR CIGS should arrive at TLH and VLD first (around 11Z), eventually reaching DHN (around 17Z). We expect CIGS to stay mostly in the MVFR range during the day, although some periods of IFR cannot be ruled out. After sunset, CIGS should continue to lower with IFR or LIFR CIGS likely tonight. All of the terminals will have a chance for some -RA or -DZ, mainly between 12Z and 00Z.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Marine...
-- Changed Discussion --
A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an Appalachian high will keep winds at advisory levels through Sunday morning. Through the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds remain elevated in advance of Thursday morning`s frontal passage. Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Fire Weather...
-- Changed Discussion --
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Hydrology...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend. Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend. With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 54 47 67 53 74 / 40 30 20 20 20 Panama City 57 48 61 54 70 / 20 20 20 20 20 Dothan 54 42 59 49 73 / 10 20 30 30 30 Albany 48 42 58 48 71 / 40 40 30 30 30 Valdosta 49 47 65 54 74 / 50 40 30 20 30 Cross City 57 51 71 56 75 / 60 40 20 20 20 Apalachicola 58 51 66 57 71 / 40 20 20 10 10
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM- Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.