Area Forecast Discussion
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920 FXUS62 KTAE 251347 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 947 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2014 .Update...
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No significant changes were made to the previous forecast this morning, and the discussions below remain unchanged.
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&& .Prev Discussion [354 AM EDT]...
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.Near Term (Today)... Strong northeasterly flow today between an area of high pressure across the Mid Atlantic States and Tropical Storm Cristobal will bring in a much drier and slightly cooler airmass to the region. While most of the region will be dry today, a few showers will be possible across the southeastern Florida Big Bend where enough moisture will remain. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler, only in the lower 90s. The drier air from the northeast will also drop dewpoints into the low to mid 60s across much of the area delivering a break from high heat indices experienced over the weekend. .Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... After our recent 4 day Heat Wave with very high Heat Indices due to high temps around 100 degrees with elevated dewpoints, the short term period will will certainly feel quite a bit more comfortable through at least mid-week. Even though highs will still average a bit above normal, the lower afternoon dewpoints and a nice northeasterly breeze will definitely make quite a bit of difference, as Maximum Heat Indices will "only" be in the lower to middle 90s across the Tri-State area. Even though this could still be considered "hot", after 4 consecutive days of Heat Indices between 108 and 115+, this should be a welcome change for most people with outdoor activities. PoPs will be at a minimum as well, with just a fairly small area of 15-20% rain chances Tuesday afternoon and evening, with a completely dry Wednesday expected. Overnight low temps will also be noticeably more comfy, with lows ranging from the middle 60s to the N and W to the lower 70s to the S and E. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Sunday]... The GFS and ECMWF forecast an area of higher heights over the Southeast through the period. Initially the deep layer moisture is forecast to be limited, but by next weekend it may be sufficient to support scattered mainly afternoon & evening storms (as opposed to just isolated storms through Friday). Temperatures will be near climo, with lows in the 70s and highs in the 90s. .Aviation... [Through 12z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty northeast winds are expected during the daytime hours on Monday up to 20kts at all terminals. .Marine... Northeasterly winds have continued to increase early this morning, as the relatively cooler and drier air moves southeast across the marine area. In fact, although prevailing seas are not expected to quite reach Small Craft Advisory levels, winds are well on there way, so will begin this forecast with an Advisory, and although there may be a few breaks at times during the daylight hours, very rare summertime nocturnal surges will keep them from dropping too much through Tuesday. Therefore, given the rareness of the event, with winds not dropping below 15 to 20 knots through Tuesday, decided to run the Small Craft Advisory until Tuesday afternoon. .Fire Weather... Drier conditions are expected into mid week, but relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Thus, red flag conditions are not anticipated. .Hydrology... With little to no rain expected over the next few days, river stages and flows should continue to run below normal.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 93 70 92 69 95 / 0 10 20 10 10 Panama City 92 74 92 76 92 / 10 10 10 20 10 Dothan 91 66 92 68 94 / 0 10 10 10 10 Albany 91 67 92 68 93 / 0 0 10 10 10 Valdosta 91 69 92 67 96 / 0 10 20 10 10 Cross City 90 70 91 68 94 / 30 10 20 10 10 Apalachicola 92 75 91 76 90 / 0 10 10 20 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Tuesday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ UPDATE...HARRIGAN NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...GOULD

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