Area Forecast Discussion
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993 FXUS62 KTAE 141527 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1127 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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East-west oriented ridge of high pressure is situated along the northern Gulf Coast this morning. Although deep-layer moisture remains reasonably high (pwat near 1.9 inches), the ridge is likely to suppress convection across much of the area today, with slight chance PoPs for far southern Georgia into the Florida Big Bend. Slightly higher rain chances are anticipated across the northern portion of the forecast area (slightly removed from the upper ridge), as well as the Florida Panhandle (with a little help from a lingering surface trough). Temperatures will be warm for mid-September, with high reaching the lower to mid 90s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Monday]Low clouds have been slow to burn off this morning at KDHN and KABY. However, VFR conditions should prevail by 16z at all terminals. Expect minimal impact from thunderstorms this afternoon, with TS only included in KECP forecast.
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&& .Prev Discussion [630 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... Rain chances will be gradually increasing through the short term period as the "dirty" upper level ridge (with plenty of deep layer moisture still underneath it) continues to weaken over the next couple of days, before being replaced by a slowly steepening trof over the SE U.S. by Tuesday and Wednesday. Lingering PoPs this evening will range from 30% over much of the interior, with a small area of 40%s across N portions of our AL and GA zones. On Monday, as the southerly flow increases over the region, PoPs will rise from 40% south and 30% north in the morning, to 50% south and 60% north by the afternoon, and once again linger well into the evening hours. On Tuesday, as the upper level trof begins to become better established, widespread 60% PoPs (with even a few areas of 70%) are expected across the CWA. This pattern change could result in the potential for more widespread heavy rainfall over the region through mid week, before a significant punch of drier air works into the area from the northwest by the end of the week as mentioned in the long term discussion below. Initially, temps should still average a few degrees above climo, but high temps on Tuesday may need a slight downward adjustment based on the final cloud cover and rainfall chances. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]... Deep moisture will continue to be present across the area with a stalled frontal boundary also in the vicinity. These ingredients point to an unsettled period coming up with an above average chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some locally heavy rain is possible given the weak boundary and deep tropical moisture expected to be in place. A drying trend is possible for most of the area with the exception of the southeast big bend near the end of the week as the deepest moisture may get pushed to the south. Daytime highs are expected to be near to slightly below normal through most of the week. .Marine... Winds and seas will remain a bit elevated across the offshore legs today and Monday, as a trough of low pressure (the remnants of a weak tropical disturbance) passes well to the south of the marine area. Thereafter, light winds and low seas are expected over the coastal waters as a weak surface pressure returns to the marine area. .Fire Weather... Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least mid week. .Hydrology... Although areas of locally heavy rainfall will be possible through mid-week, at this time it does not appear as though there will be enough time or organization to this precipitation to cause a widespread impact on our area rivers and streams. However, the situation does still bear monitoring, and if the steepening of the upper level trof and subsequent cold frontal passage are slightly slower than expected, the hydrological outlook may need to be re-visited.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 93 72 93 72 91 / 20 30 50 30 60 Panama City 90 77 89 76 88 / 40 30 50 30 60 Dothan 91 71 92 71 91 / 20 30 60 40 60 Albany 91 71 92 72 92 / 30 40 60 40 60 Valdosta 92 71 93 71 92 / 20 30 60 30 60 Cross City 92 71 91 71 91 / 20 30 50 30 60 Apalachicola 89 77 88 77 87 / 30 30 50 30 60
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...GOULD

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