Area Forecast Discussion
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059
FXUS62 KTAE 210016
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
816 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Afternoon/early evening convection is winding down, similar to
last evening. Therefore, have gone ahead and lowered PoPs for
most of the forecast area through 06Z.

Upper trough remains in place just west of the forecast area.
With the associated deep west to southwesterly flow and plenty of
moisture (pwat near 2 inches), conditions once again favor shower
and thunderstorm development off the Florida Panhandle after 06Z,
with the activity pushing onshore by sunrise. Bulk of available
CAM guidance supports this scenario, so have bumped up PoPs over
the Panhandle and adjacent coastal waters after 06Z.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail to start the
night, but some low ceilings are expected to develop after
midnight with MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop close to dawn
near ECP and spread eastward through the day, with TLH and VLD
having a higher probability of thunderstorms than DHN and ABY
later in the day.

&&

.Prev Discussion [303 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The upper level trough will narrow and deepen over the southeast
CONUS with a low closing off by Monday afternoon over Alabama.
This feature will slowly drift southwestward through the short term
period. Deep layer moisture and onshore flow along with the
added instability of daytime heating will keep Pops in the good to
likely category for most of the FA each afternoon. Max temps will
range from around 90 to the lower 90s. Overnight lows should
remain generally in the lower 70s at most locations, except for
mid to a few upper 70s near the immediate coast.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The mid/upper level trough will persist across the local region
through the extended period. The trough will be wedged between the
Bermuda Ridge and strong ridging centered over the Desert Southwest.
Temperatures along with rain chances are expected to be at or above
climo each day.


.Marine...

Slightly elevated winds and seas will diminish tonight as a
surface low over our local waters dissipates. Then, we expect
light southwest winds with low seas through the upcoming work
week.


.Fire Weather...

Moist conditions for the next several days will favor enhanced
precipitation. Red flag criteria is not expected trough the
upcoming work week.


.Hydrology...

There is a good chance for showers and thunderstorms over the next
several days, but only isolated heavy rainfall amounts are expected.
Area rivers should remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  89  73  92  71 /  20  60  40  50  30
Panama City   77  89  76  89  75 /  60  60  30  40  20
Dothan        73  91  73  93  72 /  30  40  20  40  20
Albany        73  90  73  93  72 /  30  50  20  50  30
Valdosta      73  89  71  92  71 /  20  70  40  50  30
Cross City    73  89  71  93  72 /  30  70  40  50  40
Apalachicola  78  88  76  89  75 /  60  70  40  50  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ Monday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN







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