395
FXUS62 KTAE 190057
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
857 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013

.NEAR TERM [Rest of Tonight]...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by trough over Wrn
half on country, ridge centered over MS Valley, with trough over SE
region and ridge over extreme Wrn Atlc. Upper low over Ern most TN
Valley slowly moving Ewd. Weakening shortwave continued to rotate
SEWD over SE states this eve, interacting with a East coast seabreeze
to generate scattered convection, mainly east of our our area.
Satellite shows assocd clouds continue to exit ewd while radar with
isold convection just to our north.

During the rest of tonight, local WRF shows a few showers clipping
our Nrn most GA counties 08z-09z. Lingering cloud cover from earlier
convective activity will likely limit overall fog potential
tonight especially east of the Apalachicola River. However with
light onshore flow and sunrise dew points 60 to 65 and PWATS above 1
inch per RAP13 soundings, patchy to areas of fog and some stratus
more likely Wrn counties and late where clouds exited first. Expect
min temps low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
An early summertime pattern with high pressure east of the Florida
Peninsula will keep light southerly flow in place across the
region. Despite the southerly flow, deep layer moisture is notably
absent and this will serve to limit pop chances through the first
part of the week. Rain chances of only 20 to 30 percent each
afternoon with the best potential in the Southeastern Big Bend.
Temperatures will be noticeably warmer and more typical of late May
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
Long range models in general agreement with the overall pattern for
this time period. An upper level ridge prevails across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday with an upper low in the northern/central
plains. This pattern shifts east later in the week resulting in a
weak trough across the area for Thursday and Friday. By Saturday
current trends are pointing toward ridging across the central CONUS.
POPs will increase for the Thursday-Friday period to 30-40% and drop
off to isolated activity for Tuesday and Saturday. Expect
typical diurnal cycle convection with highs and overnight lows both
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION [18Z Saturday to 18Z Sunday]...
Once again, expect low ceilings and some patchy fog to develop
overnight, especially in areas that received rain. VFR will prevail
after daybreak with only a slight chance of an afternoon
thunderstorm at ABY and VLD. Winds will be southerly under 10 knots
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate
our coastal waters for the next several days, with just some minor
enhancements near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days, thus red flag conditions are not anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   63  90  65  90  66 / 10  10  10  10  10
Panama City   67  84  68  87  69 /  0  10  10  10  10
Dothan        67  89  67  91  67 / 10  10  10  10  10
Albany        67  90  69  91  67 / 10  20  10  10  10
Valdosta      65  90  66  90  65 / 20  20  20  20  10
Cross City    65  88  64  87  64 / 10  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  65  83  66  84  67 /  0  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Block
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Hollingsworth
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Block/Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Godsey