Area Forecast Discussion
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551 FXUS62 KTAE 260844 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 344 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Showers over the eastern Big Bend early this morning are associated with the intense shortwave cross the forecast area. The activity should be east of the area by sunrise as the shortwave and its associated cold front quickly move into the Atlantic. Breezy northwest winds will kick in behind the front with a cooler airmass spilling in. Highs should run about 10 degrees cooler than Sunday, with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s in the northwest to the upper 50s in the southeastern Big Bend. .Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... A strong low pressure system will move up the Eastern Seaboard overnight into Tuesday. With moderate northwesterly flow continuing into Wednesday, cooler and dry conditions are expected for the short term period. Overnight lows will drop into the 30s tonight and Tuesday night. Cool advection will keep afternoon highs at or below normal through the short term period despite sunny skies. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... Initially, high pressure will be in control at the beginning of the long term period on Thursday before a weak cold front moves across the area on Thursday night. With the bulk of the upper support remaining well to the north with this front, rain chances will be minimal. High pressure will build back over the region in the wake of the cold front, keeping conditions dry into Saturday. Models begin to diverge a bit late in the period. The next storm system will approach the region on Sunday. The last several runs of the guidance has shown a faster northern stream shortwave bypassing energy cut off across the Southwestern CONUS/Northern Mexico, thus producing a much weaker system passing through the area on Monday. However, the 26/00z Euro is a little more energetic with a deeper northern stream impulse, suggesting higher rain chances at the end of the period. Given that this latest Euro run is still more of an outlier, will keep rain chances low for Monday.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Tuesday] VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. However, do expect gusty northwest winds during the day at all terminals, with gusts above 25 knots possible. May also see VFR cigs around BKN040 through much of the afternoon.
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&& .Marine...
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Strong northwesterly winds will remain above advisory levels into tonight before diminishing slightly on Tuesday. Cautionary level winds will then continue through Tuesday night. High pressure will move nearer to the marine area on Wednesday, resulting in a period of lighter winds and lower seas through the remainder of the week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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A drier airmass will move into the region today in the wake of a cold front. However, humidity values are forecast to remain above critical values through the middle of the week. With strong transport winds today and Tuesday, dispersion values will be elevated.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Runoff from last week`s heavy rainfall continues to progress through area rivers. The best chance for minor flooding continues to be within the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee basins where river levels continue to rise through action stage. Both Thomasville and Valdosta may reach their respective flood stages later today.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 56 37 63 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 57 42 62 41 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 52 37 59 35 58 / 10 0 0 0 0 Albany 54 35 57 35 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 56 38 59 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 59 38 63 35 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 58 42 63 41 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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