Area Forecast Discussion
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320 FXUS62 KTAE 210300 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1000 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A stationary boundary continues to linger along the northern Gulf of Mexico. North of this boundary, cool northeast surface flow continues across the local area with lots of cloudiness. A few rain showers are possible overnight mainly in the Big Bend and Panhandle regions. Lows will be in the upper 40s/lower 50s.
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&& .Aviation [Through 00Z Monday]...
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Ceilings will lower overnight as a Gulf Low lingers just south of the region. IFR ceilings are likely in the early morning hours with LIFR conditions possible at VLD. In the late morning hours conditions will likely improve to MVFR. Slight chance of rain throughout the TAF period with a better chance for rain in the afternoon hours tomorrow. Winds will be light and northeasterly.
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&& .Prev Discussion [329 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... Southwesterly flow aloft will persist through this period with occasional ripples of energy passing by. At the surface, we will continue to see a weak wave of low pressure over the North Central Gulf of Mexico with a stationary front stretching northeastward from it across the FL Big Bend from Sunday through Sunday night. Isentropic ascent over the boundary will provide sufficient forcing to produce periods of mainly light rain Sunday and Sunday night. PoPs will be high, ranging from 50 northwest of Dothan to categorical over the eastern FL Big Bend and South Central GA. Max temps will be on the cool side Sunday, ranging from the upper 50s north to the upper 60s southeast. Abundant cloud cover will limit the diurnal temp range with lows Sunday night mainly in the 50s and any 40s limited to areas north of an ABY-DHN line. The front will begin to inch northward on Monday as onshore flow strengthens ahead of a developing system to the west. Max temps will be some 6-8 degrees warmer than on Sunday. Precipitation will mainly be in the form of stratiform rain initially. However, it will become more showery in nature beginning late Sunday night. Some elevated thunderstorms will be possible across the southeastern half of the forecast area with surface based convection largely limited to the marine area. By Monday night, we will begin to see SBCAPE increase gradually inland in an increasingly sheared environment. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out near the coast. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... The main event continues to be centered on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the upper trough in the plains becomes deeply amplified and begins to move east. Deep layer shear will increase to 45-60kt during this time. We are starting to get a bit more confident that there will be sufficient destabilization to warrant a threat for severe weather. SPC has most of our FL zones along and south of I-10 outlooked for a 15% chance of severe storms within 25 miles of a point, the equivalent of a slight risk. The inland extent of any severe risk will be entirely dependent on how much destabilization ultimately occurs. Another concern will be heavy rain and potential flooding. See the hydrology section below for details. The front should be east of the area by 18Z Wednesday and will usher in a noticeably cooler and drier air mass. Highs on Christmas Day will only be in the upper 50s to around 60. Lows both Christmas Eve and Christmas nights will be down into the 30s, but should remain safely above freezing. A moderating trend in temps will commence Friday. The next frontal system will approach from the west on Saturday with rain chances returning to the forecast for the end of the week. .Marine... Light to moderate easterly flow will prevail through the weekend. Winds will then veer to onshore early next work week as a warm front lifts north of the waters. These winds could reach cautionary levels ahead of a cold front on Tuesday and possibly advisory levels Tuesday night. Strong to severe storms will precede the front which will sweep across the waters on Wednesday. Solid advisory level westerly winds will arrive in its wake and we could even see some gale-force gusts. Winds will veer to the northwest and subside below headline criteria by Thursday morning. .Fire Weather... Low level moisture will be abundant over the next few days with drier air moving in on Wednesday. Red flag conditions are not expected over the next week. .Hydrology... An unsettled pattern will mean high rain chances from Sunday through Tuesday night. From Tuesday morning through early Wednesday, much of the area could see 3 to 4 inches of rain and that will be on top of an inch to inch and a half in the preceding days. These 4-day totals in excess of 5 inches will be broad averages and isolated totals could be several inches higher. Since it has been dry for several weeks now, the overall flood threat will be mitigated somewhat. However, some localized areal flooding will be possible during this time in the areas that get the heaviest rains. Riverine flooding may become a concern by midweek as well.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 51 63 54 72 60 / 30 70 70 50 50 Panama City 53 63 57 71 64 / 30 70 70 50 50 Dothan 48 59 50 67 58 / 20 60 60 40 50 Albany 47 59 48 67 56 / 20 70 70 40 50 Valdosta 50 61 54 71 58 / 30 80 80 50 50 Cross City 53 69 58 75 61 / 40 80 80 60 50 Apalachicola 54 64 58 70 63 / 40 70 70 50 50 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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