Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
649 FXUS62 KTAE 201844 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 244 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --
This Afternoon...With low stratus holding firm...max temps will have trouble making it to mid 60s. Updated GRIDS to lower this aftn MAX temps and increase clouds. Tonight...The mid/upper ridge over MS this eve will move east to the AL/GA border by sunrise Monday. In response mid/upper low will continue to slowly lift Newd farther off the SC coast. This results in rising heights...increasing subsidence and mid/upper gradually drying overspreading local region from W-E. At surface...as nearly vertically stacked low lifts Newd...high pressure ridge continues to ridge down Ern seaboard into Gulf coast. The combination of this departing low and building ridge will keep local gradients above normal. Overnight area soundings show increasing NE flow surface-H8 then backing to NWLY above. Locally this translates to overnight winds in the 5-10 mph range highest Ern counties and with PWATS remaining around 0.7-0.8 inches...expect some lower ceilings to persist at least thru midnight especially Ern GA counties (although thinner than earlier today and with breaks). Clouds should increasingly scatter out Wrn counties by midnight. With winds in the 5 to 10 mph range...fog very unlikely. CAM/ Local confidence tool...Bufkit and SREF show improving clouds conditions and lack of fog. Expect lows near 50 north to low 50s south.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday]...
-- Changed Discussion --
With deep layer ridging in place through Monday, fair weather and partly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures near climatology. Rain chances will increase on Tuesday, mainly in South AL & GA with the approach of a cold front from the northwest. Unlike the last couple of systems, this one looks much weaker with less coverage of rain along with lighter amounts, which is much more typical for April. Any threat of severe storms with this system appears very low due to weak forcing and weak winds aloft. Temperatures will continue near climo values on Tuesday. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... The pattern appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and a weak system may affect the area on Saturday with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. PoPs for the remainder of the period look to be below 20 percent. Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above their seasonal averages.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 18Z Monday] Low level cloudiness with MVFR CIGS will gradually begin to scatter out from SW to NE through the rest of this afternoon and early evening as the deep layer low pressure system off the northeast Florida coast moves further away. By midnight VFR should overspread entire area. NE Winds 5 to 10 mph will persist overnight so neither fog nor AOB MVFR CIGS expected although borderline MVFR CIGS may linger across N/E of VLD may linger. After sunrise winds will become less than 10 MPH with VFR conditions everywhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Marine...
-- Changed Discussion --
No major systems are expected to affect the area through next week. Winds will become westerly ahead of an approaching weak cold front on Tuesday, but they should remain rather light.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Fire Weather...
-- Changed Discussion --
The airmass will dry out on Monday but remain above critical levels. It will begin to gradually moisten up on Tuesday. Red Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Hydrology...
-- Changed Discussion --
The several recent heavy rain events have caused nearly all of our local rivers to be above normal stage/flow, with the most recent rain event on Friday driving several rivers well above flood stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is forecast to reach major flood stage this evening. Other points reaching moderate flood stage are: Choctawhatchee at Caryville, Chipola at Altha, St. Mark`s at Newport and the Ochlockonee at Concord and Havana. Rainfall with Tuesday`s system is expected to be less than a quarter of an inch. The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found on our AHPS page (below). http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 52 79 52 83 60 / 0 0 0 20 10 Panama City 56 75 59 77 63 / 0 0 0 20 10 Dothan 52 79 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 40 20 Albany 50 80 53 82 58 / 0 0 0 40 20 Valdosta 50 78 50 83 59 / 0 0 0 20 20 Cross City 52 79 52 82 58 / 0 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 56 73 57 77 62 / 0 0 0 10 10
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOCK SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...BLOCK MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK HYDROLOGY...WESTON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.