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102 FXUS62 KTAE 240139 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 939 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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An upper low continues to lift northeast across the Carolina Piedmont with a surface low off the S. Carolina coast. Surface high pressure is building southwestward on the back side of this low. A front is stalled just south of the forecast area over the Gulf of Mexico. The gradient over the area will keep winds up near 10 mph overnight. We do expect another round of low clouds to work their way into the region from the northeast. Morning lows will range from around 60 north to near 70 at the coast.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Thursday] VFR conditions will once again give way to low clouds moving in from the northeast. We are forecasting mainly MVFR ceilings. However, IFR cannot be ruled out and are most likely to occur at VLD.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds and seas will continue to increase overnight as the gradient tightens between high pressure to the north and a trough of low pressure off the southeast coast. Expect to see only marginal Small Craft Advisory winds overnight, with conditions remaining near exercise caution levels on and off through the remainder of the week.
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&& .Prev Discussion [324 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... Upper low currently over the Carolinas is forecast to gradually weaken and lift northeastward over the next several days. At the surface, a trough of low pressure will remain in place along the southeastern U.S. coast. Combined with high pressure centered over New England, this will keep northeasterly flow in place across the forecast area through Thursday night. With the trajectory of the low-level flow, and little upper support for precipitation, expect most of the rainfall to be concentrated over northeast Florida. However, showers may occasionally get far enough east to impact the southeastern Big Bend so have include slight chance to low chance PoPs through the forecast period. Rain chances may begin to increase a bit more for this region by late Thursday as deeper moisture begins to return to the area. High temperatures will remain near near (or a degree or two below) normal for Wednesday before warming slightly on Thursday (with highs in the mid to upper 80s). .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... Guidance is in pretty good agreement through the weekend, with deep moisture gradually increasing across the forecast area from south to north. The increase in moisture (as well as PoPs) will be due to a combination of a weak tropical wave approaching from the southeast and deepening southerly flow across the southeastern states ahead of a digging trough over the southern Plains. Expect to see an increase in PoPs south of I-10 on Friday, spreading to the remainder of the forecast area by Saturday and Sunday. The weather is likely to remain wet and unsettled into early next week as the upper trough and associated front slowly moves eastward. Temperatures should remain near seasonal norms for early fall. .Fire Weather... Gradually increasing moisture levels over the next several days will preclude red flag criteria from being reached. Dispersion indices could exceed 75 across parts of the Apalachicola National Forest on Wednesday. .Hydrology... Rainfall totals through Friday will be minimal. More significant rainfall will be possible over the weekend into early next week. However, this rain is not expected to have a significant impact on river levels at this time.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 64 85 65 87 69 / 10 10 10 10 20 Panama City 67 85 68 86 71 / 10 0 10 10 10 Dothan 59 83 62 84 65 / 0 0 10 0 10 Albany 61 81 62 85 66 / 0 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 61 82 63 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 20 Cross City 66 86 66 88 69 / 10 20 20 30 30 Apalachicola 67 85 69 86 72 / 10 10 10 10 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...CAMP

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