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348
FXUS62 KTAE 190828
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
428 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
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A surface front currently located over central Alabama and Georgia
is expected to slowly progress southward through the day tomorrow.
Thunderstorm chances will therefore be elevated throughout the
period, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours,
when added lift will be provided from the sea breeze.

Currently, a slow-moving complex of showers and thunderstorms is
located over the western Florida panhandle.  This feature will
persist through the overnight hours, possibly producing heavy
rainfall in areas west of Panama City. During the morning hours,
remaining outflow boundaries from this feature could spark more
showers and thunderstorms over our western counties, with a more
widespread chance for precipitation developing in the afternoon as
daytime heating and the sea breeze combine with the aforementioned
front to produce thunderstorm development. After sunset, the
precipitation coverage should diminish, but due to the lingering
front, a low chance of showers and thunderstorms will remain,
especially in our eastern counties.

Temperatures will be seasonable throughout the region, with morning
lows in the low-mid 70s and highs in the upper 80s-low 90s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
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The large scale longwave pattern commences with a trough over Wrn
states, ridge over Cntrl into Ern Conus and a trough over Ern
seaboard with Srn end over Nrn FL Ewd into Wrn Atlc. Several
shortwaves will continue to ride down ridge into backside of
trough. At surface low over Ern Canada with quasi-stnry front SSW
across S/Cntrl GA/AL. High pressure remains over Gulf of Mex.
This places local area in the warm sector with moist onshore flow
and lingering convection of this afternoon`s rain will yield
20-40% POPs mainly 00z-06z.

During the rest of the period, westerlies will gradually lift into
Nrn tier states on Fri holding Ern trough in place. The front will
likely stall generally E-W across far Srn GA/Nrn FL on Thurs as a
surface wave develops along it and aided by digging impulse provide
a focus for convection and higher PoPs. Area PWATS along frontal
axis will remain in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range. A moderate west to
southwest steering flow along west coast seabreeze will push
assocd convection ENE each day so highest pops likely to be near
I-75 each aftn/eve. Weakening front will inch towards coast on
Fri with some model differences i.e. NAM furthest south into
coastal FL, conversely, GFS showing little Swd movement thru Fri
keeping almost of our area in warm sector. ECMWF in between. Thus
GFS POPS noticeably higher than NAM Thurs and Fri. Expect an
unsettled weather pattern with increasing marine convection
especially with impact of nocturnal land breeze. By Sat, upper
trough axis will have shifted Ewd with drying influence of
upstream ridge moving into Ern states while front begins to wash
out with weak high pressure building over the region. However very
light winds will support active seabreeze and sct aftn convection.

Heavy rain and gusty winds are possible especially near frontal axis
and during time of passing impulse. Will lean towards wetter solution
and go with 40-50% W-E POPS Thurs and Fri into eve and 30% on
Sat. However, overall severe threat will remain low with little or
no shear and weak lapse rates, however with cool temps aloft (-9C)
an isolated microburst could not be ruled especially on Thurs.
Otherwise, temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the
lower 90s and lows around 70.
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&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Tuesday]...
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Pattern will support seasonal conditions through the early part
of next week with afternoon highs inland in the lower 90s along
with a chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each
day. Overall, rather benign mid and upper level pattern is
expected to become established by the weekend and result in little
day to day change.
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&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Thursday]...
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The slow-moving complex of showers and thunderstorms just west of
ECP could produce lower ceilings/reduced visibility at that terminal
through the overnight hours. Elsewhere, VFR conditions should
persist until tomorrow afternoon, when thunderstorm coverage is
expected to increase across our area.  MVFR conditions could occur
at all terminals tomorrow in any thunderstorms that develop, and IFR
conditions will be possible in the stronger storms.
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&&

.MARINE...
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The subtropical ridge of high pressure, which will extend from the
western Atlantic Ocean into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, will keep
winds light to moderate out of the southwest until tonight,
with the strongest winds over the nearshore legs with the afternoon
Sea Breeze. Then, a cold front approaching from the northwest will
cause a temporary shift in the winds to light offshore, before it
stalls out and weakens in our vicinity on Thursday. Thereafter, a
new ridge of high pressure will build in to our northeast, giving us
lighter winds out of the east and southeast, with a continuation of
the low seas.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Moist conditions will continue throughout the remainder of the week.
Even though a weak frontal boundary will near the area today, drier
air is not expected to move into the region. As a result, red flag
conditions are not anticipated through the next several days.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No problems are anticipated in the near future.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee   91  71  90  69  90 / 60  30  50  30  50
Panama City   88  73  89  73  86 / 50  30  40  30  40
Dothan        90  71  91  71  90 / 50  30  40  20  40
Albany        91  71  91  70  90 / 60  40  40  30  40
Valdosta      93  69  91  70  91 / 60  40  50  40  50
Cross City    91  71  90  69  91 / 50  30  40  30  50
Apalachicola  88  73  87  72  85 / 50  30  40  30  40
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&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey/Lahr
SHORT TERM...Block
LONG TERM...Evans
AVIATION...Godsey/Lahr
MARINE...Block
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Evans/Block