Area Forecast Discussion
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076 FXUS62 KTAE 192022 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 322 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Light to moderate rain has affected mainly the Florida panhandle so far this afternoon. One batch of weakening light rain will continue moving east through Tallahassee during the remainder of the afternoon with other scattered showers developing mainly over the western portions of the area. Later tonight, as the weakening upper trough approaches, another batch of mainly light rainfall is likely across the western and northern portions of the forecast area. Overnight lows are expected to range from the mid 40s to near 50 across the area. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... Relatively zonal flow will be in place at the start of the period with a short wave trough passing to our north on Saturday. The next piece of energy in the southern stream will lift from TX to the Mississippi Valley on Sunday with most of this energy also staying north of the area as it passes Sunday night. At the surface, a weak low will be centered southwest of the forecast area over the north central Gulf of Mexico and move little before lifting north Sunday night. This will bring a warm front northward across the forecast area. Forcing for ascent will be fairly weak across the region until isentropic upglide increases over the boundary Sunday and Sunday night. Rain chances will decrease through the day Saturday as the initial short wave moves away. Slight to low chance PoPs will remain in place Saturday night. Pops will then increase to likely by day`s end Sunday, remaining likely west and increasing to categorical east for Sunday night. Afternoon temps both days will range from the upper 50s northwest to around 70 southeast. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Sunday night lows will be well above normal in the warm sector, generally in the 50s. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... The unsettled pattern will continue into next week as a long wave trough amplifies into the Great Plains Monday and Tuesday and then sweeps eastward on Wednesday. Overrunning rains will continue through the day on Monday with PoPs remaining in the likely category. As the upper system approaches from the west, deep layer shear will increase across the region. The atmosphere will become sufficiently sheared to support severe weather provided sufficient surface destabilization can occur. The latter will be unlikely from Monday into Monday night. However by Tuesday, there is a bit more concern as some models are indicating SBCAPE recovering into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Another concern is heavy rainfall. Several inches of rain are possible from this weekend through Tuesday night with the heaviest likely centered around Tuesday. A cold front will sweep across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday finally ushering in a drier and noticeably cooler air mass. After a couple of mild days with highs near 70, Wednesday`s temps won`t make it out of the 50s across the northwest half of the forecast area with 60s to the southeast. Similar temps can be expected on Thursday before a moderating trend commences on Friday. While morning lows will drop into the 30s Wednesday night, freezing temps are not expected.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Saturday] An area of mainly light rain will affect TLH this afternoon, otherwise VFR conditions are expected with ceilings around 5000 ft. Later tonight, another round of rain is expected to move in and affect areas around DHN and ABY. Some MVFR conditions are possible late tonight around DHN.
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&& .Marine...
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Light to moderate easterly flow will continue through the weekend. Winds will then veer to onshore early next week as a warm front lifts north of the waters. These winds could reach cautionary levels ahead of a cold front, which will sweep across the waters Tuesday night. Advisory level winds are forecast behind the front through Wednesday evening.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Plenty of clouds, low level moisture, and high rain chances will prevail over the next several days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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An unsettled pattern will mean high rain chances from Sunday through Tuesday night. Several inches of rain are possible during this time with the heaviest rain coming from Monday night into Tuesday night. Some localized areal flooding will be possible during this time with rises on area rivers continuing into the end of the week. Some riverine flooding will be possible by week`s end.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 47 67 50 65 57 / 30 20 20 70 80 Panama City 52 66 55 65 60 / 30 20 30 70 70 Dothan 48 59 48 60 54 / 70 40 20 60 70 Albany 47 61 47 60 53 / 60 40 20 60 80 Valdosta 48 66 49 64 56 / 30 20 20 60 80 Cross City 46 70 52 71 59 / 10 10 20 60 80 Apalachicola 53 66 55 65 60 / 20 20 30 70 80
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...DVD MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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