Area Forecast Discussion
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013 FXUS62 KTAE 300843 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 343 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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A weak cold front will move through the area early this morning, ushering in slightly cooler temperatures with afternoon highs ranging mainly from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Clouds will decrease rapidly during the morning hours with mostly sunny conditions expected by afternoon. .Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... High pressure will build across the Southern Appalachians this evening and remain north of the region before sunrise on Saturday. Enough wind will probably keep freezing temperatures confined to the northern zones, closer to the center of the high pressure area. High pressure moves quickly east of the region on Saturday with southerly flow starting the moistening trend late in the afternoon. Temperatures will rebound slightly, generally in the lower 60s across the region, except mid 60s in the Florida Big Bend. Saturday night through Sunday, a large storm system will be moving eastward across the Plains, resulting in increasing cloudiness and eventually rain chances Sunday afternoon. The models tend to be a little slow developing areas of rain in isentropic events, and thus have increased PoPs a little above guidance on Sunday afternoon into the 40 to 50 percent range in our western areas. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... The storm system at the tail end of the short term period will begin to move through the region on Sunday night. With the surface low well to the north, enough instability will likely be present within the warm sector to support isolated thunderstorms. After the isentropic ascent ends on Sunday evening, overall lift looks minimal until the cold front gets closer to the region after midnight. Rain chances have been increased into the likely category for the frontal passage overnight. Drier and cooler air will move in behind the storm system Monday afternoon with high pressure settling over the area briefly on Tuesday. Up until the 30/00z guidance came in, it appeared that the models were converging on a similar solution. However, while the overall pattern remains similar between the GFS and Euro, the 30/00z Euro slowed down quite a bit and is now 18-24 hours slower with the progression of the next system. As a result, the forecast for Wednesday through Friday remains more uncertain than normal. The pattern suggests that the large upper low over Baja California will eject eastward across Northern Mexico and lead to development of a surface low pressure area along a stalled frontal zone in the Gulf of Mexico. The 30/00z GFS stays fairly progressive, even pulling the upper low well to the north ahead of a deepening northern stream shortwave. So the heaviest period of rain is focused on Wednesday afternoon/evening. The 30/00z Euro is much slower with the evolution of the system, owing to less amplification of the northern stream by mid week. Thus, while rain chances increase in the Euro solution Wednesday night, the period of heaviest rainfall wouldn`t occur until Thursday and then linger into Friday. There`s enough overlap in the solutions to increase PoPs on Wednesday but the differences also suggest that rain chances need to be maintained in the forecast through at least Thursday afternoon until the timing differences between the models can be resolved.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Saturday] A few areas of MVFR ceilings are possible early this morning as a weak cold front moves through the area, but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail with gusty NW winds from mid-morning until around sunset.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds will increase to advisory level over the western marine area immediately behind the cold front and then decrease to cautionary levels through Saturday morning when high pressure will build near the waters. Onshore flow will increase on Sunday ahead of the next storm system with possible advisory level conditions Sunday afternoon. A cold front will move through the marine area on Monday, shifting winds to offshore.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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River flooding from last week`s heavy rainfall is ending this morning with all of the river points below flood stage. The next storm system arriving Sunday into Monday looks to bring widespread rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain. These amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river levels but is unlikely to result in a return to flood stages at any of the forecast points. With streamflows projected to be above to well above normal early next week, the scenario is set well for river flooding with the stronger storm system due to approach the area on Wednesday. While timing differences make overall rainfall amounts uncertain, the general pattern suggests a widespread moderate rainfall event that will likely result in at least minor river flooding late next week or weekend.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 62 35 64 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 30 Panama City 59 39 60 49 66 / 0 0 0 10 40 Dothan 57 34 59 44 63 / 0 0 0 10 60 Albany 58 32 60 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 30 Valdosta 60 34 64 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 20 Cross City 66 35 67 44 70 / 10 0 0 0 20 Apalachicola 63 40 60 49 66 / 10 0 0 0 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...DVD MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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