Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 060238

938 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The 01 UTC surface analysis shows a cold front across the eastern
portion of the forecast area, from just west of Cross City
extending up into the South Carolina low country. Much cooler and
drier air was moving in behind this front with a temperature range
in the upper 30s across our Southeast Alabama counties to the
upper 60s in the Southeast Florida Big Bend. Expect this front to
continue moving east with cooler air overspreading the area.
Fortunately, radar imagery over the last couple of hours has
showed what post-frontal precipitation was lingering across
Southwestern Alabama has largely dissipated as drier air moves
further south. The freezing line is still well to the north of the
area, and it doesn`t look like much if any of our SE Alabama
counties would have a shot at reaching freezing before sunrise on
Friday. Temperatures overnight should range from the mid 30s in
our western zones to the mid 50s in the southeastern areas.


[Through 00Z Saturday]...Ceilings between 1kft and 1.5kft will
prevail through the overnight hours with these MVFR conditions
continuing well into Friday afternoon. Some break in the cloud
cover should occur after 18z with the cloud deck potentially
scattering out late in the afternoon.


.Prev Discussion [439 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

High pressure will be in place this forecast period. Northerly flow
means cool, dry air will be invading the region. Skies will clear
out on Friday from west to east and will remain mostly clear for the
remainder of the forecast period. Highs on Friday will be well below
average in the lower 50s for northern portions and mid to upper 50s
elsewhere. Highs on Saturday will be in the 60s. Lows Friday night
will be in the 30s. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 30s and
lower 40s.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Gulf moisture will move into the region on Sunday as a developing
Gulf Low moves closer. Clouds will move in Sunday afternoon/evening
and will remain in place for the rest of the forecast period. The
best chance for rain will be from Sunday night through Tuesday
particularly in the northwest portion of the CWA as a Gulf Low
lingers in the western Gulf and a warm or stationary boundary will
likely be near the Florida Gulf Coast. Beyond Tuesday this boundary
will weaken and rain chances will decrease. Highs will be in the 60s
and 70s. Lows will generally be in the 50s.


A cold front is moving across the area. As a result winds are
increasing and becoming northerly from the west to the east.
Advisory conditions are expected until mid morning tomorrow with
cautionary conditions lasting through Saturday morning. Light to
moderate winds are expected for the rest of the forecast.

.Fire Weather...

A cold front will move through the region this evening bringing
cooler conditions back to the area. After light rain this evening
and cloudy conditions on Friday, drier weather will return by the
weekend. Relative humidity values may approach critical levels on
Saturday, but other necessary red flag criteria are not expected
to be met.


All area rivers are now below flood stage, although several are
still in action or bank full stage. Rainfall totals with the cold
front are less than


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   48  57  38  68  41 /  20  10   0   0   0
Panama City   44  54  40  63  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
Dothan        36  53  34  65  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        40  53  32  65  38 /  10  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      48  54  36  65  40 /  20  20   0   0   0
Cross City    58  60  41  69  45 /  30  20  10   0   0
Apalachicola  49  57  43  65  48 /  20  10   0   0   0


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Friday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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