Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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776
FXUS62 KTAE 230139
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
939 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Very few changes were made to the forecast for tonight, as the
inherited forecast looks to be on track. Convective activity has
diminished and lingering mid-high level cloud cover is
dissipating. Therefore, the overall forecast is for mostly clear
skies and lows in the mid-70s, slightly warmer near the coast and
in larger cities. The existing Heat Advisory for tomorrow was not
modified either.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00z Sunday] Isolated convection has diminished for the
night, and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
period. There is a low chance for convection again for Saturday
afternoon, but the chance appears too low to include in the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.Prev Discussion [347 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Deep layer high pressure will remain centered over the Deep South
through the weekend. As a shortwave moves off the Mid-Atlantic
coastline, the upper ridge will propagate eastward and build a
surface ridge down the U.S. east coast. This will force a front
into the Tri-State region late Sunday afternoon into Monday.

High temperatures on Saturday will likely be just as warm as
today, if not warmer. Widespread 100 degree readings should be
expected, with heat indices around 108 degrees for most locations.
The highest heat index values will likely be concentrated across
north Florida, nearer to the Gulf moisture source and away from
the drier air aloft that will likely get mixed down across south
Georgia and parts of southeast Alabama. A heat advisory will
remain in place across the entire region but should be marginal
across south Georgia.

Isolated to scattered storms can be expected along the Big Bend
sea breeze fronts on Saturday afternoon. More widespread rainfall
is expected on Sunday associated with the passing front, though it
will most likely arrive much later in the day. Expect our
northeastern GA counties to get in on the showers and
thunderstorms by mid- afternoon, possibly not reaching the
Tallahassee area until late Sunday evening.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

The aforementioned front will finish its passage through our
region by Monday evening bringing with it drier air and more
seasonable afternoon high temperatures. By mid to late week,
scattered sea breeze storms should be expected once again.


.Marine...

Sub-headline level westerly/northwesterly flow will veer easterly
and increase to cautionary levels by Monday morning. Headline
conditions should last through mid-week under the influence of
nocturnal wind surges.


.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above red flag criteria through
the period.


.Hydrology...

Widely scattered showers and storms can be expected through most
of the weekend. On Sunday, a front will pass through the region
from northeast to southwest bringing with it a good chance for
rain for most locations across the Tri-State region. However,
rainfall amounts will be insignificant and all area rivers will
remain below action stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76 101  77 100  77 /   0  30  20  40  50
Panama City   80  95  80  96  79 /  10  30  10  20  40
Dothan        75 100  76  99  75 /   0  10  10  20  50
Albany        75 101  76  99  75 /   0  10  20  60  40
Valdosta      75 101  75  98  74 /   0  30  20  60  40
Cross City    76  98  77  98  74 /   0  30  20  50  50
Apalachicola  79  95  79  95  80 /  10  30  20  30  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     Saturday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-
     Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN






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