Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 200203
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1003 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Large stacked low just east of Jacksonville will slowly move away
from the region overnight. Wrap around moisture will continue to
keep a layer of low cloudiness in place through at least Sunday
morning. The lowest 4000 ft of the atmosphere is still essentially
saturated so expect pockets of light rain or drizzle to continue
through the overnight hours. The cloudiness and winds will keep
the temps from dropping too much overnight with lows generally in
the mid 50s.
[Through 00Z Monday] Low pressure near KJAX will keep north to
northeast wind elevated through much of the night. The low
pressure will also continue to generate MVFR to IFR cigs through
at least mid-morning on Sunday. VFR conditions should return to
most terminals during the afternoon.
.Prev Discussion [252 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Low clouds may linger into Sunday in association with wrap-around
moisture around the departing area of low pressure east of the
area. Otherwise, look for deep layer ridging, clearing skies and
seasonal temps to start the work week.
.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The next frontal system looks like it will move through the area
on Tuesday. However, it looks weak and fast moving with most of
the deep layer moisture affecting the northern half of the area
with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pattern
appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and
another weak system may affect the area on Saturday. The remainder
of the period looks dry with near to slightly above average
Winds and seas will start the night at cautionary levels, but a
gradual decreasing trend is expected as the night progresses. No
major systems are expected to affect the area through next week,
and winds are expected to stay generally around 15 knots or less
Cloudy and cool conditions will continue into Sunday morning...
especially ERN areas. Red Flag conditions are not expected through
the upcoming work week.
Most of the area saw rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with higher
amounts of 4 to 5.5 inches in Southeast Alabama and Walton and
Holmes counties in Florida. These rainfall amounts in additional to
rainfall from earlier in the week have led to a rise on rivers with
many area rivers in flood stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is
expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points along
the following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood stage:
St. Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers.
The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 52 70 51 79 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
Panama City 53 71 56 76 61 / 10 0 0 0 10
Dothan 50 73 52 79 57 / 10 0 0 0 10
Albany 51 72 51 79 54 / 20 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 52 70 50 79 53 / 30 0 0 0 0
Cross City 53 75 52 80 54 / 20 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 54 69 55 74 58 / 10 0 0 0 10