172
FXUS62 KTAE 220802
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
402 AM EDT Wed May 22 2013

.Near Term [Today]...
A low amplitude shortwave trough will edge closer to the region today
with the associated surface cold front remaining well to our west and
northwest. The local region will be sandwiched between areas of deeper
moisture to our west and east. The mean 1000-700mb flow will be light
from the west to southwest over our western zones and light from the
north over our eastern zones. An storms that develop will be slow movers.
The best chance of rain (40%) will be over our far easternmost zones.
Expect highs to range around 90 inland and mid 80s along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
The large scale longwave pattern commences highlighted by troughing
over Wrn states, ridging Ewd to Plains, trough/low over Upper
Midwest and ridge over Wrn Atlc. The upper Midwest low will move
slowly Ewd phasing with shortwave moving SEWD from Hudson Bay
reaching Ern states overnight. Weakening low amplitude shortwave
will progress SWD from base of this phased trough and brush local
region. At the surface, low over NE MI with cold front SSW thru
vcnty Memphis and into Ern TX. Weak high pressure dominates Nrn Gulf
of Mex region.

During WED NIGHT into THURS, phased trough will combine with
approaching shortwave shifting weakening cold front rapidly SEWD
into our area. Sufficient low level moisture, and near calm winds
in warm sector Wed night favor patchy fog especially in areas that
received rain today. With steering flow near zero, Gulf and East
coast seabreezes should be progressive and with outflow boundary
interactions, will maintain clouds, and sct showers and tstms
Thurs aftn early eve. Somewhat tricky forecast as convection
coverage and intensity in part determined by where the
boundary/sea breeze clashes occur. Although isolated stronger
storms can not be ruled out, overall severe risk with this system
appears minimal. By late aftn, trough begins to lift Newd so
convection focus should be across the Ern counties closest to
departing upper dynamics and east coast sea breeze.

By THURS NIGHT into FRI, Ern trough lifts to and then off Ern
seaboard with cold front pushed south of our area. In their wake,
building high pressure over OH/TN Valleys with noticeably drier
and slightly cooler NW flow overspreading local region from NW-SE.
Will go with 30-10% N-S POP gradient Wed eve, 20-30% W-E POPs on
Thurs, otherwise nil POP. Inland Min Temps tonight mid to upper
60s and mid 60s Thurs night. Highs 88 to 91 Thurs, 85 to 89 on
Fri.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]...
Rather pleasant/benign weather will settle over the region through the
holiday weekend and into early next week. This will occur as a
large ridge of high pressure develops aloft, and drier air settles
in at the surface. Overall, afternoon high temperatures will remain
seasonal in the upper 80s and lower 90s away from the coast with
overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected today
through Thursday, especially near-shore. Otherwise, expect offshore
flow and dry conditions will settle over the region by Friday and
continue into the weekend with low seas and relatively light winds.

&&

.Aviation...[Through 06Z Thursday]
Brief periods of MVFR/IFR are expected just prior to daybreak at all
TAF sites with LIFR conditions possible at VLD. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail with isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the late afternoon
and early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No flooding issues are expected along or near area rivers. Minor
localized flooding could occur near any slow moving storm which forms.

&&

.Fire Weather...
No fire weather concerns for the next several days, with afternoon
relative humidities remaining well above critical levels. Dispersion
values may exceed 75 Thursday afternoon.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Block
LONG TERM...Evans
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Block
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Evans/Block