Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 010630
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
After a cool and foggy start to the morning, today will be dry and
warm. There is mostly zonal flow aloft today with a weak trough over
the Pacific northwest and another over the Great Lakes. Regional
surface analysis shows high pressure in place over the southeast
with the center off to our north. The remnants of our last cold
front lies across the central Gulf of Mexico and central Florida.
With this boundary out over the water and moisture still plentiful
in the region, light showers may develop today out over our offshore
waters and in the southeastern Big Bend, but the rest of our area
will stay dry. Highs today will be in the mid-upper 80s.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
At upper levels, relatively zonal flow at the start of the period
will give way to a period of short-wave ridging on Thursday as a
strong short wave pivots across the Central and Southern Plains.
Most of that energy will be quickly shunted northeast and eventually
absorbed by the long wave trough that will deepen into the
Mississippi Valley on Friday. Tonight and Thursday will be warmer
than normal with temps possibly reaching 90 in a few spots Thursday
afternoon. PoPs will be relatively low as a front lifts north across
the region. The upper trough will help to drive a cold front
into the Southeast. The front should be crossing Alabama by 00Z
Saturday with rain chances increasing substantially on Friday.
Most of the area will see likely PoPs for Friday with somewhat
lower rain chances across the eastern FL Big Bend. The increasing
clouds and rain chances will shave a couple of degrees off max
temps. However, with dew points in the lower 70s, it will feel
quite muggy, especially for October.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
An approaching cold front is now fcst to push rapidly through the
CWA on Friday night, with any remaining showers and storms coming
to an end by Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the
best forcing out ahead of this front will remain well to our
north, so no strong or severe storms are expected at this time.
However, this will be a strong cold front in terms of changing air
masses, as our first real taste of fall weather is ushered in
behind it. High temps will generally be in the upper 70s on both
Sat. and Sun. with much drier air, before a gradual moderating
trend returns them back into the lower to middle 80s for Mon. and
Tue. The greatest impact behind the front will be low
temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in the upper 40s to
the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.
[Through 06Z Thursday] MVFR-IFR vsbys this morning everywhere but
ECP will clear out shortly after sunrise. VLD may see reduced cigs
as well, which may hang around a little later. Winds will be light
(less than 10 knots) and from the east/southeast.
Light winds and low seas will dominate the marine area through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of our next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind the front Friday night and Saturday.
With a fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong
cold front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.
Relative humidities will dip into the upper 20s and low 30s this
weekend in the wake of a cold front passage, however at this time it
appears the 20 foot winds will likely be too low to produce red flag
Rainfall totals with the next frontal passage Friday are expected to
generally be an inch or less, which will not cause significant rises
on our area rivers.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 89 69 90 71 88 / 10 10 20 20 60
Panama City 87 73 87 74 86 / 10 10 30 30 50
Dothan 88 66 89 70 86 / 10 10 20 30 60
Albany 88 66 89 69 87 / 10 10 10 30 60
Valdosta 87 66 89 68 88 / 10 10 20 20 50
Cross City 88 68 89 68 88 / 20 20 30 20 40
Apalachicola 85 72 85 74 85 / 10 10 20 30 50