Area Forecast Discussion
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699 FXUS62 KTAE 150907 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 507 AM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014 ...Isolated Strong to Severe Storms and Flooding Still Possible this Morning with Sharply Colder Air Forecast to Arrive for Tonight... .Near Term [Through Today]...
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A cold front will sweep across the forecast today. Ahead of the front, a band of convection has been organizing itself in a more linear fashion over recently. The overall severe threat has diminished somewhat and the earlier watch allowed to expire. We have not received any wind damage reports. However, an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out this morning. Of more immediate concern is flash flooding potential. Dual pol estimates show 4-6 inches of rain fell across our FL Panhandle zones along and south of I-10. It appears that training echoes are largely east of this area now, but another couple of inches of rain will be possible over portions of the Florida Big Bend and adjacent South GA. The flash flood watch has been maintained for these areas. Surf has been building along the FL Panhandle coast in moderately strong onshore flow. Although we do expect a wind shift behind the cold front, northwest winds will continue to increase surf along the west facing beaches which will contribute to a high risk of rip currents. Colder air will surge into the region behind the front and most areas will see afternoon temperatures several degrees cooler than this morning with 50s expected across our northern zones. .Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... The unseasonably cold surge of air will continue through the overnight hours. Guidance is in remarkably good agreement in showing most of our inland zones dropping into the 30s. In fact, our far northwestern zones could see a couple of hours of temperatures around freezing. Wet soils and 10-kt winds may keep temps from getting quite that low, but considering the late date, a freeze watch seemed prudent. A decision on whether to upgrade to a warning will be made this afternoon. Easterly flow will moderate temperatures somewhat for Wednesday night and Thursday, although they will remain below normal. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... With the first low pressure system long gone by the beginning of the extended period, we should at least experience a 2 day break in the unsettled weather on Wed. and Thu. with an initial shot of unseasonably cold air moderating back towards climo levels. By the end of the week and through next weekend, however, the fcst will once again become quite difficult as the conditions are leaning heavily towards yet another very unsettled period. While the details on timing, potential rainfall totals, and the possibility of any severe weather have been very inconsistent from run to run in both the GFS and ECMWF, the chances of another significant rainfall event during this time frame are clearly increasing. This is definitely not welcomed news for our area rivers and streams, many of which remain elevated from previous rainfall events, and will be primed yet again by the initial rainfall event early in this week. Furthermore, until a more significant change in the synoptic pattern becomes evident across the CONUS, these anomalous digging shortwaves and potential heavy rainfall producers will continue to threaten the SE U.S.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Wednesday] A large area of rain and thunderstorms will affect the region through the early afternoon hours. Storms could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning with brief visibility reductions to LIFR. Ceilings and visibility will gradually improve from west to east through the afternoon as the rain ends. Winds will increase as the front moves through, with wind gusts around 25 knots this afternoon across the region.
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&& .Marine...
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A cold front will sweep across the waters during the first half of the day. Onshore winds will be at cautionary levels ahead of the boundary, but shift to offshore and quickly increase to small craft advisory levels after frontal passage. Highest seas will occur across the offshore legs late in the day and further east during the evening. Wind gusts are expected to stay just below gale force during this time. After a brief dip in wind speeds Wednesday afternoon, strong easterly flow will increase to advisory levels once again from Wednesday night through Thursday night. Low pressure will then pass south of the waters and shift winds to the north for late in the week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Widespread wetting rain this morning should limit fire weather concerns over the next 24 hours and increase fuel moisture. A drier air mass is expected on Wednesday, but fuel moisture levels should continue to be high enough to preclude red flag criteria from being met. Moisture will then increase once again for later in the week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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A band of heavy rain set up across the Florida Panhandle overnight. Gages on the Choctawhatchee and Chipola are already showing a reversal in earlier recessions. Sharper rises on smaller tributaries may continue this trend, once this observed rainfall gets into the models. Look for some official forecasts to be revised upwards. This may also eventually happen on the Apalachicola and Ochlockonee Rivers. For real-time detailed river stage monitoring refer to this page: http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 70 38 70 48 74 / 80 0 0 10 30 Panama City 65 42 69 53 73 / 70 0 0 10 30 Dothan 62 35 67 45 71 / 70 0 0 10 20 Albany 67 37 68 44 73 / 80 0 0 10 20 Valdosta 70 39 69 48 74 / 80 0 0 10 20 Cross City 73 42 71 50 77 / 80 10 0 20 30 Apalachicola 68 43 68 54 72 / 80 0 0 10 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Gadsden- Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-South Walton- Washington. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf-South Walton. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for Inland Walton. GA...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Baker- Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes- Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas. AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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