Area Forecast Discussion
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712 FXUS62 KTAE 311409 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1009 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014 .Near Term [Rest of Today]...
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The morning band of lingering convection over northern sections of south central GA has weakened and come to an end, so tweaked this morning`s PoPs back down to 20% across the board. PoPs for this aftn looked generally good as is, with 50% rain chances dominating the CWA. Prevailing winds in the Sea Breeze layer (1000-700 mb) are very light, so expect the convection to evolve like a Type 1 Sea Breeze day, with some influence from the Upper levels. Given the light steering flow and PWATs still near 2 inches, some of the storms that develop could be very heavy rain producers once again, so we will be monitoring any storms or band of storms for potential localized flooding.
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&& .Prev Discussion [406 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... Very little will change in terms of the overall synoptic setup from this weekend into the first couple days of the new work week. This has led us to a forecast weighted more toward persistence, although the latest model guidance also reflects similar scenarios to what has been observed this weekend. Essentially, an upper level ridge will continue to influence area weather with weak flow through the troposphere and warmer-than-normal temperatures. The forecast calls for a continuation of scattered thunderstorms, with coverage peaking in the afternoon to early evening, and highs in the mid-90s away from the coast. We may see a continuation of locally heavy rainfall as well given slow storm motions and PWATs around seasonal normals (1.8 to 1.9 inches). .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... The period will begin with a weak ridge in place across the Southeast with near zonal flow across the northern stream. Early in the period, near normal storm coverage is anticipated with the lack of any large scale forcing. By Thursday, a tropical wave will near the Florida east coast bringing an increase in moisture to the region and weaken the ridge aloft. Thus in the latter part of the period, rain chances will be on the increase. Temperatures throughout the long term period will generally be a couple of degrees above climatology through Thursday and then near normal late in the period due to increased convective activity. .Aviation... [Through 12z Monday] Convection is still active at this early hour around VLD and not too far from TLH. Expect this convection to diminish by sunrise with mainly VFR conditions prevailing after sunrise. However, another afternoon of scattered convection is expected across the area today. .Marine... Wave periods will continue to be a little higher than normal (6-7 seconds) with a broad area of breezy southeast winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This should maintain seas around 3 feet offshore and to the west of Apalachicola. The winds and seas should diminish closer to normal summertime levels around Monday Night or Tuesday. Some 2 foot surf is likely again today, with 3 foot sets likely in Walton County and perhaps western Bay County. Active rip currents will be possible - particularly from Panama City Beach and points further west. .Fire Weather... Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the next several days with no fire weather concerns. .Hydrology... River levels will remain at their below normal levels into next week as widespread rainfall is not anticipated.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 95 73 96 74 95 / 50 40 30 30 30 Panama City 92 77 91 77 91 / 50 20 30 10 30 Dothan 95 73 96 74 96 / 50 40 30 20 30 Albany 96 73 97 74 96 / 50 50 30 20 30 Valdosta 95 72 96 73 95 / 50 50 40 30 30 Cross City 94 73 94 72 94 / 50 40 30 30 30 Apalachicola 91 76 91 77 91 / 40 10 30 10 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...DVD MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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