Area Forecast Discussion
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475 FXUS62 KTAE 172134 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 434 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure will keep the weather tranquil overnight. Radiational cooling will be somewhat limited by incoming cirrus clouds, keeping temperatures well above freezing. However, temperatures should be able to reach the upper 30s to around 40 degrees in most locations by morning. .Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]... A shortwave trough that will be located near the Four Corners on Thursday will quickly push east and deamplify, reaching the Mississippi River by Friday Night. We are expecting weak surface cyclogenesis along the Gulf coast associated with this ejecting wave, and the low should be situated fairly close to the coast. Overall, the trend of a deamplifying wave passing north of our area and relatively stable heights aloft suggests that forcing for ascent and precipitation will not be very strong. Thursday will be a dry day, with chances of rain showers building in from the west on Friday and Friday Night. We kept PoPs in the "chance" (<55%) range for now given the weak forcing. Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal through the period. .Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]... As the surface low moves into, and through, the area on Saturday, there should be a chance of rain over the entire forecast area. Forecast models continue to indicate some instability, so thunderstorms were maintained in the forecast. At this time, the severe weather risk looks minimal. A stalling front just southeast of our forecast area, and the upper level trough axis positioned to the west, suggests that rain chances may continue until a much stronger cold front ultimately arrives Tuesday or early Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal in advance of the second cold front, although a significant cool-down could be into the latter half of the next week.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Thursday] Light winds and some high cirrus will continue through the forecast period, with VFR conditions expected at all terminals.
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&& .Marine...
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It initially looked as though at least SCEC level winds would be likely with the upcoming low pressure system Friday Night and Saturday, but the forecast models are now showing a much weaker system. Therefore, winds should peak around 15 knots, with the next chance of hazardous marine conditions coming with a stronger cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected through the weekend.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 39 68 42 69 49 / 0 0 0 10 20 Panama City 45 63 49 67 56 / 0 0 10 20 30 Dothan 40 64 44 63 49 / 0 0 10 40 40 Albany 37 64 41 66 48 / 0 0 10 30 40 Valdosta 37 65 41 68 47 / 0 0 0 10 20 Cross City 38 67 41 70 48 / 0 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 43 65 49 65 55 / 0 0 0 10 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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