Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
514 FXUS62 KTAE 250252 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 952 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --
Southwesterly flow aloft in the right entrance region of a strong upper level jet continues to help generate showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of a slow-moving cold front this evening. Currently, the main focus has shifted to the southeastern Big Bend. However, as the night wears on, expect activity to build westward as the upper trough amplifies and upper divergence increases. The surface front, currently just entering the northwestern corner of the forecast area, will slowly move southeastward through the night, ushering in a cooler low-level airmass.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 00Z Wednesday] Improvement in cigs this evening at some terminals likely to be short-lived as low clouds and rain are forecast to return to all terminals by sunrise or shortly therafter. IFR cigs are likely to persist through much of the day on Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Prev Discussion [328 PM EST]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... The front will stall today as mentioned in the near term discussion and will shift very little through Tuesday evening, finally pushing eastward late Tuesday night. Since deep layer steering flow will be from the southwest, a rich moisture plume from the Gulf will continue to move over the eastern third of our area. Storm total precipitation will be around 1.75-2.5" in the Florida Big Bend and in south-central Georgia, 0.5-1.5" in SE Alabama, SW Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle Tuesday through Tuesday night, with isolated higher totals possible. With another rainy day on tap Tuesday, temperatures are expected to stay fairly cool during the day and relatively warm at night, with highs in the mid to upper 50s, low 60s in the eastern Big Bend, and lows in the 40s, upper 30s in SE Alabama where colder air will begin to move in overnight behind the front. By Wednesday, higher pressure will begin to build eastward and a cooler, drier airmass will begin to move in, with only slight chances for rain in our easternmost zones Wednesday morning. Highs Wednesday will be around 60 and lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 30s, low 40s along the immediate coastline. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... High pressure will continue to push eastward over the southeastern states through the long term period. There are no significant chances of rain through the period, although cloud cover and moisture will begin to increase again early next week ahead of the next developing cold front. The airmass will be cool and dry Thursday through Friday, with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Over the weekend, the airmass will begin to modify and we will warm up a bit with highs will be in the mid 60s to around 70 and lows in the 40s. .Marine... Winds will ramp up over the western waters tonight, reaching small craft advisory conditions by early Tuesday morning and affecting most of our coastal waters by Tuesday afternoon. Overnight Tuesday night, we may even briefly see gusts to gale force before winds begin to decrease Wednesday morning. Once winds fall Wednesday, they are expected to remain below headline criteria for the remainder of the period. .Fire Weather... Very wet conditions will continue through Tuesday night before a cold front ushers in a drier airmass. Even with the drier airmass, humidity levels are forecast tor remain well above critical levels. .Hydrology... Recent rains are causing rises on most area rivers. A band of showers and thunderstorms will move east of the area this evening resulting in a lull in precipitation. However, by midnight steady rain will begin to move back into the area, becoming moderate at times late tonight through Wednesday morning. The highest amounts will be south and east of a Valdosta to Tallahassee to Apalachicola line, including the Suwanee River basin. Expect amounts of 2 to 3 inches with locally higher totals possible. North and west of that line total amounts should be much lighter, in the
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 57 57 45 59 39 / 100 80 80 20 0 Panama City 57 57 44 61 47 / 90 70 80 10 0 Dothan 50 56 39 59 39 / 30 50 70 10 0 Albany 51 56 42 59 37 / 70 60 80 20 0 Valdosta 59 59 46 59 37 / 80 80 80 30 10 Cross City 63 67 50 60 39 / 70 80 90 30 0 Apalachicola 58 59 45 61 45 / 100 80 80 10 0
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Tuesday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...MOORE FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.