Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 081454
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
954 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2013
The 12 UTC regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front extending from Jacksonville, through Tallahassee, through
Apalachicola, and west-southwestward into a weak frontal wave over
the central Gulf of Mexico. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a broad, deep long wave trough over much of the western and
central CONUS, and a flat (but strong) ridge over the Southeast
coast. Areas of fog covered much of our forecast area.
Based on the NWP guidance consensus, we expect the front to "lift"
northward today, especially as breaks in the clouds develop across
the FL Big Bend (helping to accelerate the front). The front`s
progress may be retarded later as it gets farther north, since we
expect low clouds to persist throughout the day. We have a slight
PoP for light showers from Dothan to Tifton northward. The 12 UTC
KTAE sounding was about 3 K cooler at 850 mb than 24 hours ago, so
we do not expect to reach the record high today of 81 deg at
Tallahassee, though highs in the upper 70s are still at least
10 deg above climo. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s in the
northern tier of our forecast area, where the warm front will be
slow to cross.
Although the dense fog will likely dissipate by late morning,
several of the high-res models forecast fog/low stratus to
continue over the nearshore coastal waters throughout the
afternoon. If this does occur, it will help confirm what the
overwhelming number of dynamical and statistical guidance is
showing, that widespread dense fog over land is likely this evening.
More on this later.
Dense fog will slowly dissipate during the remainder of this morning.
However, IFR cigs will be slow to lift to MVFR levels early this
afternoon. In fact, low-end MVFR to IFR cigs are likely to
continue for the entire afternoon around KECP, KDHN, and KABY.
Widespread low cigs and dense fog are likely tonight, with
conditions deteriorating during the evening.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 79 60 82 65 / 10 10 20 30
Panama City 74 65 75 66 / 10 10 40 40
Dothan 74 63 76 62 / 10 20 50 50
Albany 74 60 78 63 / 20 10 40 50
Valdosta 79 61 83 63 / 10 10 20 20
Cross City 80 59 81 61 / 10 10 10 20
Apalachicola 72 64 77 67 / 10 10 20 30
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning FOR
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM EST this morning FOR Apalachee
Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL out 20 NM.